Preseason Rankings
Penn
Ivy League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#150
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#119
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#229
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 31.2% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 2.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.2 12.3 13.7
.500 or above 64.0% 85.9% 56.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.4% 88.1% 71.1%
Conference Champion 25.2% 38.4% 20.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.3% 5.9%
First Four2.1% 1.6% 2.2%
First Round19.6% 30.5% 15.9%
Second Round3.0% 6.2% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 410 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 101   @ Iona L 73-80 25%    
  Nov 11, 2022 70   @ Missouri L 68-78 18%    
  Nov 13, 2022 118   Towson W 72-71 51%    
  Nov 15, 2022 201   @ Drexel L 72-73 48%    
  Nov 18, 2022 56   @ West Virginia L 69-81 16%    
  Nov 22, 2022 271   @ Lafayette W 74-70 62%    
  Nov 25, 2022 327   Hartford W 81-66 89%    
  Nov 26, 2022 113   Colgate W 75-74 51%    
  Nov 27, 2022 153   Delaware W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 30, 2022 149   Saint Joseph's W 76-73 60%    
  Dec 03, 2022 182   La Salle W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 07, 2022 16   @ Villanova L 60-77 9%    
  Dec 10, 2022 93   Temple L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 02, 2023 240   @ Brown W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 06, 2023 217   @ Cornell W 81-80 50%    
  Jan 07, 2023 315   @ Columbia W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 14, 2023 257   @ Dartmouth W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 16, 2023 165   Princeton W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 21, 2023 146   @ Yale L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 23, 2023 327   @ Hartford W 78-69 75%    
  Jan 28, 2023 167   Harvard W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 03, 2023 315   Columbia W 84-71 86%    
  Feb 04, 2023 217   Cornell W 84-78 68%    
  Feb 11, 2023 167   @ Harvard L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 17, 2023 146   Yale W 76-73 58%    
  Feb 18, 2023 240   Brown W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 25, 2023 257   Dartmouth W 74-65 76%    
  Mar 04, 2023 165   @ Princeton L 75-77 43%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.9 7.4 4.7 1.8 25.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.8 7.3 3.8 0.8 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.4 5.9 1.8 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.8 4.4 0.9 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.6 2.0 0.3 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.5 8th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.6 6.6 9.0 11.1 12.8 13.2 12.8 10.8 8.2 4.7 1.8 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
13-1 100.0% 4.7    4.5 0.2
12-2 90.6% 7.4    5.8 1.6 0.0
11-3 63.7% 6.9    3.7 2.8 0.4 0.0
10-4 28.8% 3.7    1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1
9-5 5.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 25.2% 25.2 16.9 6.6 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.8% 77.0% 69.2% 7.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 25.2%
13-1 4.7% 59.9% 55.6% 4.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 9.6%
12-2 8.2% 46.5% 44.9% 1.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.4 3.0%
11-3 10.8% 33.5% 33.1% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 7.1 0.6%
10-4 12.8% 24.8% 24.7% 0.1% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 9.6 0.2%
9-5 13.2% 18.1% 18.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 10.8
8-6 12.8% 12.2% 12.2% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 11.3
7-7 11.1% 8.0% 8.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 10.2
6-8 9.0% 5.8% 5.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.5
5-9 6.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.4
4-10 4.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.5
3-11 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-12 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-13 0.5% 0.5
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 20.5% 20.0% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 4.0 4.7 3.8 2.7 2.6 79.5 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 8.3 16.7 33.3 16.7 16.7 8.3