Preseason Rankings
Arizona St.
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#61
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#164
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 6.8% 7.2% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 12.6% 13.4% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.4% 36.2% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.8% 31.5% 7.8%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 9.0
.500 or above 69.7% 72.4% 33.3%
.500 or above in Conference 51.7% 53.8% 24.6%
Conference Champion 5.3% 5.6% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 4.3% 14.9%
First Four4.0% 4.2% 1.8%
First Round32.4% 34.1% 9.2%
Second Round18.7% 19.8% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen7.7% 8.2% 1.3%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.3% 0.2%
Final Four1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 36 - 11
Quad 35 - 211 - 13
Quad 46 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 245   Tarleton St. W 72-56 93%    
  Nov 10, 2022 320   Northern Arizona W 79-57 98%    
  Nov 13, 2022 241   @ Texas Southern W 73-64 79%    
  Nov 16, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 69-68 53%    
  Nov 22, 2022 318   Grambling St. W 81-59 97%    
  Nov 27, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 83-56 99%    
  Dec 01, 2022 59   @ Colorado L 67-70 39%    
  Dec 04, 2022 57   Stanford W 70-67 58%    
  Dec 07, 2022 95   @ SMU W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 12, 2022 14   Creighton L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 18, 2022 176   San Diego W 73-61 84%    
  Dec 21, 2022 83   @ San Francisco L 71-72 47%    
  Dec 31, 2022 12   Arizona L 75-79 39%    
  Jan 05, 2023 71   Washington St. W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 08, 2023 89   Washington W 75-69 67%    
  Jan 12, 2023 26   @ Oregon L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 14, 2023 204   @ Oregon St. W 75-67 73%    
  Jan 19, 2023 8   UCLA L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 21, 2023 37   USC W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 26, 2023 89   @ Washington L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 28, 2023 71   @ Washington St. L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 02, 2023 204   Oregon St. W 78-64 86%    
  Feb 04, 2023 26   Oregon L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 09, 2023 57   @ Stanford L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 11, 2023 128   @ California W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 16, 2023 59   Colorado W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 18, 2023 84   Utah W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 12   @ Arizona L 72-82 22%    
  Mar 02, 2023 8   @ UCLA L 63-74 20%    
  Mar 04, 2023 37   @ USC L 65-71 32%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 3.0 0.9 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.8 5.3 7.1 8.4 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.3 8.3 7.3 5.9 4.5 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 92.8% 1.0    0.8 0.1
17-3 72.1% 1.4    0.9 0.4 0.0
16-4 43.6% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 17.6% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 3.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 2.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.9% 99.6% 21.5% 78.1% 3.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
16-4 3.0% 99.5% 17.9% 81.6% 4.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-5 4.5% 96.9% 16.3% 80.6% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.3%
14-6 5.9% 92.2% 11.4% 80.8% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 91.2%
13-7 7.3% 79.3% 10.5% 68.8% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.5 76.9%
12-8 8.3% 60.4% 8.5% 51.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.2 3.3 56.7%
11-9 9.3% 39.0% 6.5% 32.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.7 34.8%
10-10 9.8% 20.3% 4.7% 15.5% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 16.3%
9-11 9.9% 7.8% 3.8% 3.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.2 4.1%
8-12 9.5% 3.8% 3.3% 0.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.1 0.6%
7-13 8.4% 2.5% 2.5% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.2 0.1%
6-14 7.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.0
5-15 5.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.2
4-16 3.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-17 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-18 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 34.4% 6.5% 27.9% 7.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 65.6 29.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.3 19.7