Preseason Rankings
BYU
West Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#55
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.0#116
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#75
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.2% 5.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 9.4% 9.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.8% 34.2% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.8% 26.2% 3.5%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 11.3
.500 or above 86.2% 86.8% 46.3%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 82.9% 53.8%
Conference Champion 10.2% 10.3% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.3% 7.3%
First Four5.6% 5.6% 1.7%
First Round31.3% 31.7% 5.4%
Second Round17.5% 17.7% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen7.2% 7.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.1% 0.2%
Final Four1.3% 1.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 5
Quad 22 - 24 - 7
Quad 36 - 210 - 9
Quad 48 - 118 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 324   Idaho St. W 80-57 99%    
  Nov 11, 2022 23   @ San Diego St. L 64-71 26%    
  Nov 16, 2022 131   Missouri St. W 79-69 82%    
  Nov 19, 2022 220   Nicholls St. W 83-68 90%    
  Nov 23, 2022 37   USC L 70-72 42%    
  Dec 03, 2022 135   South Dakota W 77-70 74%    
  Dec 07, 2022 156   Utah Valley W 77-65 84%    
  Dec 10, 2022 14   Creighton L 69-75 32%    
  Dec 17, 2022 84   Utah W 75-69 68%    
  Dec 20, 2022 355   Lindenwood W 88-59 99%    
  Dec 22, 2022 208   Weber St. W 83-69 87%    
  Dec 29, 2022 228   @ Pacific W 78-68 77%    
  Dec 31, 2022 154   Portland W 82-70 83%    
  Jan 05, 2023 155   @ Loyola Marymount W 76-70 68%    
  Jan 07, 2023 176   @ San Diego W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 12, 2023 1   Gonzaga L 77-86 25%    
  Jan 14, 2023 194   Pepperdine W 84-70 86%    
  Jan 19, 2023 127   @ Santa Clara W 80-76 61%    
  Jan 21, 2023 83   @ San Francisco L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 28, 2023 44   St. Mary's W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 02, 2023 155   Loyola Marymount W 79-67 82%    
  Feb 04, 2023 228   Pacific W 81-65 89%    
  Feb 09, 2023 194   @ Pepperdine W 81-73 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 1   @ Gonzaga L 74-89 12%    
  Feb 16, 2023 127   Santa Clara W 83-73 78%    
  Feb 18, 2023 44   @ St. Mary's L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 25, 2023 83   San Francisco W 78-72 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.5 3.0 0.8 10.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.3 8.9 7.7 3.0 26.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.9 7.7 3.5 0.4 21.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.2 4.5 1.2 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 1.7 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.7 7.0 9.4 11.8 13.3 14.3 13.1 10.3 6.4 3.0 0.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
15-1 100.0% 3.0    2.2 0.8
14-2 54.1% 3.5    1.9 1.5 0.1
13-3 21.2% 2.2    0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-4 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 5.8 3.7 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.8% 99.3% 42.1% 57.2% 2.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
15-1 3.0% 97.1% 34.8% 62.2% 3.9 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.5%
14-2 6.4% 90.6% 24.8% 65.9% 6.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 87.6%
13-3 10.3% 75.9% 18.9% 57.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.5 70.3%
12-4 13.1% 54.9% 13.9% 41.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.9 47.7%
11-5 14.3% 34.7% 10.8% 23.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.3 26.8%
10-6 13.3% 17.7% 7.5% 10.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.0 11.0%
9-7 11.8% 9.0% 5.5% 3.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8 3.7%
8-8 9.4% 5.2% 4.4% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.9 0.8%
7-9 7.0% 3.4% 3.4% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.8 0.1%
6-10 4.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6
5-11 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.0
4-12 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-13 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-14 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-15 0.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 33.8% 10.8% 23.1% 8.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.7 5.1 6.3 2.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 66.2 25.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 58.1 32.0 7.5 1.2 1.2