Preseason Rankings
Maryland
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#48
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.4#202
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.6% 4.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 11.9% 12.5% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 20.6% 21.6% 2.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.6% 45.4% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.2% 42.0% 10.8%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.5
.500 or above 69.7% 71.9% 31.4%
.500 or above in Conference 52.8% 54.5% 24.4%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 6.1% 19.1%
First Four3.8% 3.9% 2.1%
First Round41.8% 43.5% 11.9%
Second Round26.5% 27.7% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen12.0% 12.6% 1.9%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.5% 0.7%
Final Four2.2% 2.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.1%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 45 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 239   Niagara W 75-58 94%    
  Nov 10, 2022 268   Western Carolina W 83-64 96%    
  Nov 15, 2022 323   Binghamton W 83-59 98%    
  Nov 19, 2022 45   Saint Louis L 72-73 50%    
  Nov 25, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 88-63 98%    
  Nov 29, 2022 73   @ Louisville L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 02, 2022 18   Illinois L 71-72 47%    
  Dec 06, 2022 41   @ Wisconsin L 67-70 39%    
  Dec 11, 2022 10   Tennessee L 67-73 30%    
  Dec 14, 2022 8   UCLA L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 22, 2022 145   St. Peter's W 72-60 84%    
  Dec 29, 2022 236   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 82-65 91%    
  Jan 01, 2023 15   @ Michigan L 68-75 28%    
  Jan 05, 2023 43   @ Rutgers L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 08, 2023 36   Ohio St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 15, 2023 29   @ Iowa L 75-80 34%    
  Jan 19, 2023 15   Michigan L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 22, 2023 24   @ Purdue L 69-75 32%    
  Jan 25, 2023 41   Wisconsin W 70-67 58%    
  Jan 28, 2023 98   Nebraska W 80-72 73%    
  Jan 31, 2023 13   Indiana L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 04, 2023 90   @ Minnesota W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 07, 2023 25   @ Michigan St. L 69-75 33%    
  Feb 11, 2023 66   Penn St. W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 16, 2023 24   Purdue W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 19, 2023 98   @ Nebraska W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 22, 2023 90   Minnesota W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 26, 2023 85   Northwestern W 74-67 70%    
  Mar 01, 2023 36   @ Ohio St. L 68-72 37%    
  Mar 05, 2023 66   @ Penn St. L 64-65 47%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 3.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.8 0.7 0.1 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 7.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 5.4 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.3 14th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.2 6.8 8.0 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.1 8.4 7.7 6.0 4.6 3.3 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.1% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 90.1% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
17-3 71.4% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1
16-4 44.9% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 20.4% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.2% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.3% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 3.4 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.6% 99.5% 11.9% 87.6% 4.4 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 6.0% 97.8% 9.5% 88.3% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.6%
13-7 7.7% 93.4% 9.1% 84.4% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 92.8%
12-8 8.4% 81.7% 7.0% 74.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 80.4%
11-9 9.1% 62.2% 5.8% 56.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 59.9%
10-10 9.5% 38.2% 4.4% 33.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 35.4%
9-11 9.5% 15.2% 3.4% 11.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 12.3%
8-12 9.0% 5.1% 2.6% 2.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 2.5%
7-13 8.0% 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.9 0.3%
6-14 6.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
5-15 5.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.2
4-16 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-17 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-18 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 43.6% 5.7% 38.0% 6.7 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.9 4.9 4.3 4.0 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 56.4 40.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 76.9 19.2 3.8