Preseason Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#25
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#145
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.3% 6.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 13.2% 13.3% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 27.1% 27.2% 3.0%
Top 6 Seed 40.0% 40.2% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.8% 61.1% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.7% 57.1% 12.6%
Average Seed 5.5 5.5 7.6
.500 or above 69.6% 69.9% 19.8%
.500 or above in Conference 67.3% 67.6% 24.4%
Conference Champion 11.3% 11.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 3.2% 15.8%
First Four4.3% 4.3% 2.3%
First Round58.9% 59.2% 13.4%
Second Round42.8% 43.1% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen23.3% 23.4% 3.5%
Elite Eight11.5% 11.5% 0.8%
Final Four5.4% 5.4% 0.0%
Championship Game2.5% 2.5% 0.0%
National Champion1.2% 1.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 43 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 320   Northern Arizona W 83-57 99%    
  Nov 11, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 78-86 24%    
  Nov 15, 2022 3   Kentucky L 72-77 32%    
  Nov 18, 2022 16   Villanova W 68-66 55%    
  Nov 24, 2022 22   Alabama L 79-80 49%    
  Nov 30, 2022 40   @ Notre Dame L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 04, 2022 85   Northwestern W 76-67 78%    
  Dec 07, 2022 66   @ Penn St. W 67-65 56%    
  Dec 10, 2022 240   Brown W 82-62 94%    
  Dec 21, 2022 214   Oakland W 83-65 93%    
  Dec 30, 2022 133   Buffalo W 85-71 87%    
  Jan 03, 2023 98   Nebraska W 84-73 80%    
  Jan 07, 2023 15   Michigan W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 10, 2023 41   @ Wisconsin L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 13, 2023 18   @ Illinois L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 16, 2023 24   Purdue W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 19, 2023 43   Rutgers W 72-66 67%    
  Jan 22, 2023 13   @ Indiana L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 26, 2023 29   Iowa W 81-77 61%    
  Jan 29, 2023 24   @ Purdue L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 04, 2023 43   Rutgers W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 07, 2023 48   Maryland W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 12, 2023 36   @ Ohio St. L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 15, 2023 90   Minnesota W 76-66 78%    
  Feb 18, 2023 15   @ Michigan L 71-76 36%    
  Feb 21, 2023 13   Indiana W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 29   @ Iowa L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 28, 2023 98   @ Nebraska W 81-76 64%    
  Mar 04, 2023 36   Ohio St. W 74-70 63%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.6 3.0 2.3 1.2 0.3 11.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.4 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.9 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.4 5.9 7.0 8.2 9.1 9.8 9.8 9.6 8.2 7.3 5.5 4.0 2.5 1.2 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.4% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 92.9% 2.3    2.0 0.3 0.0
17-3 74.2% 3.0    2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
16-4 46.3% 2.6    1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 20.9% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 7.3 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.5% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.0% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 1.9 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.5% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.5 1.2 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.3% 99.8% 14.6% 85.2% 3.4 0.6 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 8.2% 99.2% 12.4% 86.9% 4.5 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
13-7 9.6% 96.6% 11.0% 85.7% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.2%
12-8 9.8% 88.9% 8.7% 80.2% 7.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 87.9%
11-9 9.8% 73.2% 7.5% 65.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 71.0%
10-10 9.1% 45.4% 5.7% 39.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 42.1%
9-11 8.2% 20.5% 4.6% 15.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 16.7%
8-12 7.0% 6.7% 3.9% 2.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5 2.9%
7-13 5.9% 3.1% 2.8% 0.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7 0.4%
6-14 4.4% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.3 0.1%
5-15 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 3.0
4-16 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-17 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-18 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-19 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 60.8% 9.4% 51.4% 5.5 6.3 6.9 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.4 5.1 4.1 3.2 2.9 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 39.2 56.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.5 2.5