Preseason Rankings
Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#40
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#272
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.2% 5.3% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 13.1% 13.4% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 22.3% 22.7% 3.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.4% 49.1% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.9% 45.6% 11.0%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.5
.500 or above 80.9% 81.8% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 61.4% 62.1% 27.0%
Conference Champion 6.3% 6.4% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 3.8% 15.9%
First Four4.3% 4.3% 3.1%
First Round46.3% 47.0% 11.2%
Second Round29.7% 30.2% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen13.6% 13.9% 1.5%
Elite Eight6.1% 6.2% 0.7%
Final Four2.7% 2.7% 0.5%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.2%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 7
Quad 25 - 38 - 10
Quad 36 - 113 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 293   Radford W 78-56 98%    
  Nov 13, 2022 223   Youngstown St. W 82-65 93%    
  Nov 16, 2022 339   Southern Indiana W 83-57 99%    
  Nov 18, 2022 225   Lipscomb W 84-67 93%    
  Nov 22, 2022 234   Bowling Green W 88-71 93%    
  Nov 25, 2022 103   St. Bonaventure W 73-66 71%    
  Nov 30, 2022 25   Michigan St. W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 03, 2022 52   Syracuse W 76-72 64%    
  Dec 07, 2022 233   Boston University W 78-61 92%    
  Dec 11, 2022 63   Marquette W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 18, 2022 106   Georgia W 78-71 71%    
  Dec 21, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 70-73 42%    
  Dec 27, 2022 160   Jacksonville W 71-57 87%    
  Dec 30, 2022 32   Miami (FL) W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 03, 2023 86   @ Boston College W 69-67 55%    
  Jan 07, 2023 2   @ North Carolina L 70-81 20%    
  Jan 10, 2023 97   Georgia Tech W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 14, 2023 52   @ Syracuse L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 17, 2023 42   Florida St. W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 21, 2023 86   Boston College W 72-64 73%    
  Jan 24, 2023 69   @ North Carolina St. W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 28, 2023 73   Louisville W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 79-73 68%    
  Feb 08, 2023 97   @ Georgia Tech W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 11, 2023 34   Virginia Tech W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 14, 2023 7   @ Duke L 70-79 23%    
  Feb 18, 2023 20   @ Virginia L 58-64 33%    
  Feb 22, 2023 2   North Carolina L 73-78 36%    
  Feb 25, 2023 67   @ Wake Forest L 75-76 49%    
  Mar 01, 2023 109   Pittsburgh W 72-62 78%    
  Mar 04, 2023 65   @ Clemson L 69-70 49%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.9 0.6 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.0 1.0 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.0 1.5 0.2 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 15th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 3.9 5.3 6.8 8.2 8.9 9.6 9.9 9.6 8.7 7.8 6.1 4.3 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 98.2% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 84.4% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
17-3 63.7% 1.9    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 31.8% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 11.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.9% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 99.9% 12.5% 87.4% 3.6 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 6.1% 98.7% 13.1% 85.6% 4.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
14-6 7.8% 96.2% 8.9% 87.4% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.9%
13-7 8.7% 89.6% 7.7% 82.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.9 88.8%
12-8 9.6% 74.5% 7.1% 67.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.4 72.5%
11-9 9.9% 53.9% 5.2% 48.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.5 51.4%
10-10 9.6% 31.0% 4.1% 26.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.6 28.1%
9-11 8.9% 13.1% 3.9% 9.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 9.5%
8-12 8.2% 4.1% 2.7% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 1.4%
7-13 6.8% 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.1%
6-14 5.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.2
5-15 3.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
4-16 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-17 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 48.4% 6.3% 42.0% 6.7 2.2 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.6 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 51.6 44.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 76.2 21.5 2.3