IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.7	#270
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.1	#144
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.5	#281

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.2	#246

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.6%	7.6%	2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.7	13.2	14.8

.500 or above	20.4%	62.2%	19.4%
.500 or above in Conference	39.8%	74.9%	38.9%
Conference Champion	3.1%	14.3%	2.8%
Last Place in Conference	11.6%	2.1%	11.8%

First Four	0.8%	0.7%	0.8%
First Round	2.2%	7.2%	2.1%
Second Round	0.1%	1.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 6	10 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2022	29	@ Iowa	L	67-88	2%
Nov 13, 2022	51	@ Iowa St.	L	58-77	5%
Nov 19, 2022	237	Gardner-Webb	L	67-70	42%
Nov 20, 2022	181	@ Wofford	L	64-72	24%
Nov 30, 2022	139	UNC Greensboro	L	62-66	35%
Dec 13, 2022	5	@ Houston	L	53-80	1%
Dec 17, 2022	241	Texas Southern	L	69-71	42%
Dec 18, 2022	190	Norfolk St.	L	67-72	34%
Dec 21, 2022	148	@ UTEP	L	63-73	21%
Dec 29, 2022	199	@ Northeastern	L	62-70	27%
Dec 31, 2022	141	@ Hofstra	L	70-80	20%
Jan 04, 2023	151	College of Charleston	L	78-82	39%
Jan 07, 2023	179	UNC Wilmington	L	69-71	43%
Jan 11, 2023	302	@ Elon	L	68-69	49%
Jan 14, 2023	258	Stony Brook	W	74-72	57%
Jan 16, 2023	328	@ Hampton	W	74-72	56%
Jan 19, 2023	118	Towson	L	66-72	31%
Jan 21, 2023	295	@ William & Mary	L	72-73	47%
Jan 26, 2023	201	Drexel	L	69-70	45%
Jan 28, 2023	260	Monmouth	W	70-68	58%
Feb 02, 2023	179	@ UNC Wilmington	L	66-74	25%
Feb 08, 2023	302	Elon	W	72-66	67%
Feb 11, 2023	258	@ Stony Brook	L	71-75	38%
Feb 13, 2023	260	@ Monmouth	L	67-71	39%
Feb 18, 2023	118	@ Towson	L	63-75	16%
Feb 23, 2023	153	Delaware	L	69-73	39%
Feb 25, 2023	328	Hampton	W	77-69	73%
Projected Record						10 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.1		3.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.7	1.6	1.3	0.5	0.1				4.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	1.0	2.2	1.6	0.5	0.0					5.4	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	2.9	2.0	0.5	0.0						6.5	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	3.2	2.4	0.5	0.0							7.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.9	3.3	3.0	0.7	0.0								8.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.8	3.6	3.8	1.0	0.0	0.0								9.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.7	3.5	4.4	1.2	0.1										9.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.6	3.1	4.4	1.9	0.1											10.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.7	3.0	4.5	1.8	0.2												10.2	10th
11th			0.0	0.8	3.0	4.0	1.9	0.2	0.0												10.0	11th
12th		0.1	1.1	2.9	3.1	1.5	0.2	0.0													8.9	12th
13th	0.5	1.6	2.2	1.9	0.8	0.1	0.0														7.1	13th

Total	0.5	1.7	3.3	5.6	7.6	9.2	10.4	10.8	11.1	9.8	8.4	7.0	5.5	3.9	2.5	1.5	0.7	0.3	0.1			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
16-2	86.4%	0.6		0.5	0.1	0.0
15-3	62.0%	0.9		0.5	0.4	0.1
14-4	31.2%	0.8		0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0
13-5	7.4%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0						0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.1%	3.1		1.6	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		42.0%	42.0%		11.5								0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.3%		31.1%	27.8%	3.3%	12.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2		4.6%
16-2	0.7%		23.7%	22.7%	1.1%	12.8												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5		1.4%
15-3	1.5%		15.6%	15.6%		13.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.2
14-4	2.5%		12.7%	12.7%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	2.2
13-5	3.9%		7.8%	7.8%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.6
12-6	5.5%		6.0%	6.0%		14.9														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	5.2
11-7	7.0%		4.9%	4.9%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	6.7
10-8	8.4%		3.1%	3.1%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	8.2
9-9	9.8%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																0.0	0.2	9.6
8-10	11.1%		1.2%	1.2%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.0
7-11	10.8%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.7
6-12	10.4%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.4
5-13	9.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.2
4-14	7.6%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	7.6
3-15	5.6%																							5.6
2-16	3.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.3
1-17	1.7%																							1.7
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		2.6%	2.6%	0.0%	14.7								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	1.0	97.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%