Preseason Rankings
New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#111
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.2#239
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#154
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 2.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.2% 28.6% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.6% 6.6% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.2 12.9
.500 or above 68.8% 83.4% 54.8%
.500 or above in Conference 79.7% 87.8% 71.9%
Conference Champion 22.3% 30.2% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 2.8%
First Four2.3% 2.7% 1.9%
First Round20.1% 27.2% 13.3%
Second Round5.1% 7.9% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 9
Quad 48 - 216 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 148   @ UTEP L 66-67 49%    
  Nov 19, 2022 110   @ New Mexico L 74-77 39%    
  Nov 25, 2022 176   San Diego W 69-65 64%    
  Nov 30, 2022 148   UTEP W 70-64 68%    
  Dec 03, 2022 110   New Mexico W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 07, 2022 127   @ Santa Clara L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 11, 2022 178   @ Duquesne W 69-68 54%    
  Dec 14, 2022 44   @ St. Mary's L 58-68 21%    
  Dec 21, 2022 120   Kent St. W 68-67 51%    
  Dec 29, 2022 177   Southern Utah W 76-69 72%    
  Dec 31, 2022 175   Sam Houston St. W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 04, 2023 166   @ Stephen F. Austin W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 07, 2023 193   California Baptist W 73-65 73%    
  Jan 12, 2023 173   @ Seattle W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 14, 2023 248   Texas Arlington W 71-60 80%    
  Jan 19, 2023 177   @ Southern Utah W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 21, 2023 253   @ Utah Tech W 63-58 66%    
  Jan 28, 2023 156   @ Utah Valley W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 02, 2023 166   Stephen F. Austin W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 173   Seattle W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 09, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 65-68 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 193   @ California Baptist W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 15, 2023 147   Abilene Christian W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 303   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-65 89%    
  Feb 22, 2023 116   Grand Canyon W 68-65 60%    
  Mar 01, 2023 147   @ Abilene Christian L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 03, 2023 245   @ Tarleton St. W 65-61 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.0 5.8 5.7 3.7 1.4 22.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.9 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 4.8 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.0 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.1 0.1 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.6 5.1 6.5 8.2 9.6 10.6 11.0 10.9 10.0 8.3 6.1 3.7 1.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 99.4% 3.7    3.5 0.1
16-2 92.6% 5.7    4.6 1.0 0.0
15-3 70.2% 5.8    3.7 1.9 0.2
14-4 39.8% 4.0    1.7 1.6 0.5 0.1
13-5 14.0% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.3% 22.3 15.2 5.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 88.8% 63.2% 25.6% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 69.5%
17-1 3.7% 74.9% 52.4% 22.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 47.3%
16-2 6.1% 56.0% 41.0% 14.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 25.3%
15-3 8.3% 39.8% 33.3% 6.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.0 9.8%
14-4 10.0% 29.8% 27.4% 2.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 7.0 3.4%
13-5 10.9% 21.5% 20.8% 0.7% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.5 0.8%
12-6 11.0% 16.7% 16.6% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.2 0.1%
11-7 10.6% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.3 0.0%
10-8 9.6% 8.2% 8.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 8.8
9-9 8.2% 7.3% 7.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 7.6
8-10 6.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.2
7-11 5.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.9
6-12 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.6
5-13 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.2% 18.2% 3.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 3.4 5.1 3.7 2.0 1.5 1.3 78.8 3.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.0 14.1 22.4 24.0 27.1 11.0 1.4