Preseason Rankings
New Mexico
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#110
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.1#19
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#65
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#191
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 2.1% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 14.9% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.4% 9.3% 1.6%
Average Seed 10.0 9.8 12.0
.500 or above 60.5% 69.0% 34.0%
.500 or above in Conference 46.5% 52.5% 27.7%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.4% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 6.7% 17.0%
First Four2.7% 3.1% 1.3%
First Round10.9% 13.2% 3.4%
Second Round4.3% 5.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 22 - 43 - 9
Quad 35 - 48 - 13
Quad 48 - 116 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 177   Southern Utah W 85-78 76%    
  Nov 11, 2022 205   South Alabama W 80-72 78%    
  Nov 15, 2022 95   @ SMU L 76-81 33%    
  Nov 19, 2022 111   New Mexico St. W 77-74 61%    
  Nov 25, 2022 209   Jacksonville St. W 81-72 77%    
  Nov 26, 2022 216   North Dakota St. W 81-72 77%    
  Nov 27, 2022 213   Northern Colorado W 89-80 76%    
  Nov 30, 2022 44   @ St. Mary's L 66-76 21%    
  Dec 03, 2022 111   @ New Mexico St. L 74-77 40%    
  Dec 10, 2022 249   Texas San Antonio W 85-74 81%    
  Dec 18, 2022 101   Iona W 82-80 57%    
  Dec 20, 2022 285   Prairie View W 89-75 88%    
  Dec 28, 2022 78   Colorado St. L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 31, 2022 62   @ Wyoming L 73-81 26%    
  Jan 03, 2023 99   @ Fresno St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 07, 2023 105   UNLV W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 14, 2023 23   @ San Diego St. L 66-79 15%    
  Jan 17, 2023 210   San Jose St. W 81-72 75%    
  Jan 20, 2023 77   Boise St. L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 23, 2023 126   @ Nevada L 82-84 43%    
  Jan 27, 2023 231   Air Force W 76-66 78%    
  Feb 01, 2023 76   @ Utah St. L 73-80 29%    
  Feb 07, 2023 126   Nevada W 85-81 62%    
  Feb 10, 2023 231   @ Air Force W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 14, 2023 62   Wyoming L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 17, 2023 210   @ San Jose St. W 78-75 58%    
  Feb 22, 2023 77   @ Boise St. L 70-77 29%    
  Feb 25, 2023 23   San Diego St. L 69-76 30%    
  Feb 28, 2023 99   Fresno St. W 71-69 55%    
  Mar 03, 2023 78   @ Colorado St. L 73-80 30%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.1 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.2 1.6 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.0 3.2 1.0 0.1 10.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 9.0 10th
11th 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.6 11th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.4 6.1 8.1 9.5 10.6 10.9 10.5 9.6 8.3 6.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 90.5% 0.9    0.7 0.1
15-3 64.5% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 34.3% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 96.7% 30.1% 66.5% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.2%
16-2 1.0% 93.1% 26.9% 66.1% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 90.5%
15-3 2.1% 79.0% 19.0% 60.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 74.0%
14-4 3.1% 63.4% 15.5% 47.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 56.7%
13-5 4.9% 44.1% 13.2% 30.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.8 35.6%
12-6 6.5% 25.3% 10.1% 15.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9 16.9%
11-7 8.3% 15.0% 8.2% 6.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.3%
10-8 9.6% 7.8% 5.8% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 2.1%
9-9 10.5% 4.6% 4.2% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.4%
8-10 10.9% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.5 0.0%
7-11 10.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.3
6-12 9.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.3
5-13 8.1% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0
4-14 6.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.1
3-15 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
2-16 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
1-17 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 12.3% 5.3% 7.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 87.7 7.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.8 33.3 50.0 16.7