Preseason Rankings
North Texas
Conference USA
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#79
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace53.7#363
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 2.7% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 3.0% 7.9% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 5.7% 13.7% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 48.2% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.3% 29.0% 7.8%
Average Seed 9.7 8.6 10.7
.500 or above 84.1% 95.4% 79.5%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 93.9% 81.9%
Conference Champion 27.5% 40.8% 22.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four3.8% 5.9% 3.0%
First Round28.3% 45.3% 21.5%
Second Round12.4% 23.6% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 9.5% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.7% 3.8% 0.8%
Final Four0.6% 1.4% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 37 - 310 - 8
Quad 48 - 118 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2022 44   @ St. Mary's L 53-59 29%    
  Nov 18, 2022 99   Fresno St. W 57-52 67%    
  Nov 25, 2022 210   San Jose St. W 64-55 78%    
  Dec 03, 2022 307   Nebraska Omaha W 74-55 95%    
  Dec 06, 2022 248   @ Texas Arlington W 62-54 76%    
  Dec 10, 2022 116   Grand Canyon W 61-57 63%    
  Dec 17, 2022 124   Massachusetts W 68-64 64%    
  Dec 22, 2022 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 66-57 76%    
  Dec 29, 2022 125   Florida Atlantic W 65-58 73%    
  Dec 31, 2022 224   Florida International W 67-54 86%    
  Jan 05, 2023 107   @ Western Kentucky W 63-62 50%    
  Jan 07, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee W 61-59 58%    
  Jan 11, 2023 121   Louisiana Tech W 65-58 71%    
  Jan 14, 2023 125   @ Florida Atlantic W 62-61 54%    
  Jan 16, 2023 224   @ Florida International W 64-57 72%    
  Jan 19, 2023 206   Rice W 69-57 83%    
  Jan 21, 2023 60   @ UAB L 61-66 36%    
  Jan 26, 2023 249   Texas San Antonio W 69-54 87%    
  Jan 28, 2023 148   UTEP W 63-54 77%    
  Feb 04, 2023 206   @ Rice W 66-60 68%    
  Feb 09, 2023 60   UAB W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 11, 2023 164   Charlotte W 65-55 79%    
  Feb 16, 2023 121   @ Louisiana Tech W 62-61 54%    
  Feb 18, 2023 148   @ UTEP W 60-57 60%    
  Feb 23, 2023 164   @ Charlotte W 62-58 64%    
  Mar 02, 2023 137   Middle Tennessee W 64-56 75%    
  Mar 04, 2023 107   Western Kentucky W 66-60 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 5.1 6.9 6.2 4.0 1.7 27.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 6.0 4.6 2.4 0.4 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.6 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.7 4.9 6.0 7.2 9.1 9.8 10.8 10.6 10.3 9.3 6.7 4.0 1.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
19-1 100.0% 4.0    3.9 0.1
18-2 93.3% 6.2    5.5 0.8 0.0
17-3 74.3% 6.9    5.0 1.7 0.1
16-4 49.8% 5.1    2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 23.5% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
14-6 8.1% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 20.1 6.0 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.7% 97.8% 62.3% 35.5% 3.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.1%
19-1 4.0% 91.0% 50.8% 40.2% 5.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 81.6%
18-2 6.7% 82.2% 40.6% 41.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 70.0%
17-3 9.3% 62.7% 32.3% 30.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.5 44.8%
16-4 10.3% 43.3% 26.5% 16.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 22.9%
15-5 10.6% 30.0% 21.9% 8.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 7.4 10.4%
14-6 10.8% 19.7% 17.3% 2.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 2.8%
13-7 9.8% 14.7% 14.1% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.4 0.7%
12-8 9.1% 11.3% 11.2% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.0 0.1%
11-9 7.2% 8.0% 8.0% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.6
10-10 6.0% 5.7% 5.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.6
9-11 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.6
8-12 3.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.6
7-13 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.4
6-14 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 1.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 30.2% 19.5% 10.7% 9.7 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.3 3.3 6.5 5.1 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 69.8 13.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 99.6% 2.4 26.8 31.9 24.6 12.2 3.1 0.7 0.4