Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma
Big 12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#33
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.3#286
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.9% 3.1% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 6.8% 7.3% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 17.1% 18.2% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 27.8% 29.5% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.2% 50.6% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.1% 46.6% 15.0%
Average Seed 6.1 6.0 8.0
.500 or above 64.6% 67.5% 28.2%
.500 or above in Conference 46.2% 48.2% 20.6%
Conference Champion 6.2% 6.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 11.6% 29.0%
First Four3.9% 4.0% 2.9%
First Round46.5% 48.9% 16.8%
Second Round32.0% 33.8% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen16.2% 17.2% 3.3%
Elite Eight7.5% 8.0% 1.3%
Final Four3.4% 3.6% 0.4%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 92.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 28 - 12
Quad 33 - 111 - 13
Quad 45 - 016 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 175   Sam Houston St. W 72-57 93%    
  Nov 11, 2022 360   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-49 99.9%   
  Nov 15, 2022 179   UNC Wilmington W 75-60 91%    
  Nov 18, 2022 205   South Alabama W 76-59 92%    
  Nov 24, 2022 98   Nebraska W 77-71 70%    
  Dec 03, 2022 16   @ Villanova L 61-67 31%    
  Dec 06, 2022 289   UMKC W 79-56 97%    
  Dec 10, 2022 11   Arkansas L 69-74 36%    
  Dec 17, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 88-62 99%    
  Dec 20, 2022 30   Florida L 67-68 48%    
  Dec 31, 2022 9   Texas L 63-65 44%    
  Jan 04, 2023 51   Iowa St. W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 07, 2023 17   @ Texas Tech L 63-69 33%    
  Jan 10, 2023 6   @ Kansas L 67-76 24%    
  Jan 14, 2023 56   West Virginia W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 18, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 21, 2023 4   Baylor L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 24, 2023 19   @ TCU L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 28, 2023 22   Alabama W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 01, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 04, 2023 56   @ West Virginia L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 08, 2023 4   @ Baylor L 66-75 23%    
  Feb 11, 2023 6   Kansas L 70-73 42%    
  Feb 14, 2023 68   Kansas St. W 71-64 70%    
  Feb 18, 2023 9   @ Texas L 60-68 27%    
  Feb 21, 2023 17   Texas Tech W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 51   @ Iowa St. L 65-66 47%    
  Mar 01, 2023 68   @ Kansas St. W 68-67 53%    
  Mar 04, 2023 19   TCU W 67-66 52%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.3 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.7 2.9 0.7 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 4.2 1.7 0.2 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.6 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.4 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.4 10th
Total 0.4 1.5 2.7 4.6 6.5 8.1 9.5 10.0 10.5 10.1 9.4 8.2 6.5 4.9 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.0% 1.1    0.9 0.2
15-3 76.3% 1.6    1.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 45.9% 1.6    0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 19.6% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 47.2% 52.8% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.0% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.4% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 2.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.9% 99.8% 14.5% 85.3% 3.5 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 6.5% 99.3% 12.2% 87.1% 4.6 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
11-7 8.2% 96.7% 10.5% 86.2% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.3%
10-8 9.4% 87.7% 8.4% 79.3% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 86.6%
9-9 10.1% 69.2% 6.8% 62.4% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 67.0%
8-10 10.5% 38.9% 5.0% 33.9% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 35.7%
7-11 10.0% 14.6% 3.6% 11.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 11.4%
6-12 9.5% 5.6% 3.5% 2.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.0 2.2%
5-13 8.1% 3.0% 2.8% 0.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.9 0.3%
4-14 6.5% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.4 0.0%
3-15 4.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.5
2-16 2.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
1-17 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 48.2% 7.2% 41.0% 6.1 2.9 4.0 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.0 4.3 3.1 2.9 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 51.8 44.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.1 6.9