Preseason Rankings
Providence
Big East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#50
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.2#287
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#47
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 3.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 8.3% 8.9% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 15.6% 16.6% 2.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.6% 40.6% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.3% 35.3% 9.3%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 9.3
.500 or above 75.4% 78.1% 40.1%
.500 or above in Conference 53.4% 55.5% 26.0%
Conference Champion 7.6% 8.1% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 7.4% 22.1%
First Four3.5% 3.7% 1.9%
First Round36.9% 38.9% 12.1%
Second Round22.6% 23.9% 5.5%
Sweet Sixteen9.7% 10.4% 1.3%
Elite Eight4.3% 4.6% 0.6%
Final Four1.8% 2.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 92.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 34 - 111 - 12
Quad 47 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 218   Rider W 76-60 93%    
  Nov 12, 2022 199   Northeastern W 71-57 90%    
  Nov 15, 2022 359   Stonehill W 83-50 99.8%   
  Nov 19, 2022 32   Miami (FL) L 69-71 43%    
  Nov 23, 2022 280   Merrimack W 71-51 95%    
  Nov 26, 2022 315   Columbia W 83-61 97%    
  Nov 30, 2022 19   @ TCU L 63-70 28%    
  Dec 03, 2022 112   @ Rhode Island W 69-66 61%    
  Dec 07, 2022 227   Manhattan W 78-62 91%    
  Dec 10, 2022 300   Albany W 75-54 96%    
  Dec 17, 2022 46   @ Seton Hall L 66-70 38%    
  Dec 20, 2022 63   Marquette W 75-71 63%    
  Dec 29, 2022 80   @ Butler L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 01, 2023 91   @ DePaul W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 04, 2023 31   Connecticut W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 07, 2023 49   St. John's W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 14, 2023 14   @ Creighton L 64-72 26%    
  Jan 18, 2023 63   @ Marquette L 72-74 45%    
  Jan 21, 2023 91   DePaul W 74-67 71%    
  Jan 25, 2023 80   Butler W 68-62 68%    
  Jan 29, 2023 16   @ Villanova L 59-67 27%    
  Feb 01, 2023 27   @ Xavier L 68-74 33%    
  Feb 08, 2023 102   Georgetown W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 49   @ St. John's L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 14, 2023 14   Creighton L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 16   Villanova L 62-64 45%    
  Feb 22, 2023 31   @ Connecticut L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 26, 2023 102   @ Georgetown W 74-72 57%    
  Mar 01, 2023 27   Xavier W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 04, 2023 46   Seton Hall W 69-67 58%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.7 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 3.7 3.7 1.3 0.2 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.2 2.5 0.7 0.1 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.4 11th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.4 6.7 7.8 8.9 9.4 9.6 9.0 8.5 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 96.4% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 81.3% 2.0    1.5 0.5 0.0
16-4 53.6% 1.8    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.4% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 5.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 33.4% 66.6% 2.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 3.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.4% 99.6% 19.8% 79.8% 4.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 4.7% 98.3% 16.6% 81.7% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.0%
14-6 6.1% 93.1% 13.4% 79.8% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 92.1%
13-7 7.7% 83.6% 11.5% 72.1% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.3 81.4%
12-8 8.5% 66.5% 9.6% 56.9% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 62.9%
11-9 9.0% 45.8% 7.6% 38.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.9 41.4%
10-10 9.6% 25.4% 6.2% 19.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.2 20.5%
9-11 9.4% 10.0% 5.1% 4.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5 5.2%
8-12 8.9% 4.5% 3.7% 0.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.5 0.8%
7-13 7.8% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.5 0.0%
6-14 6.7% 2.5% 2.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
5-15 5.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.3
4-16 3.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.8
3-17 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-18 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-19 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 38.6% 7.9% 30.7% 7.2 1.1 1.7 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.2 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 61.4 33.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.6 14.7 2.7