Preseason Rankings
Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#276
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.9#152
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#255
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#289
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 15.0% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.7
.500 or above 71.2% 77.9% 43.8%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 79.2% 57.0%
Conference Champion 15.4% 17.6% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.9% 6.0%
First Four3.8% 4.0% 3.1%
First Round11.0% 12.8% 3.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 4
Quad 414 - 715 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2022 341   Alabama A&M W 72-63 80%    
  Nov 14, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 83-68 91%    
  Nov 17, 2022 138   @ Southern Illinois L 59-70 17%    
  Nov 21, 2022 311   Cal St. Northridge W 72-69 60%    
  Nov 30, 2022 45   @ Saint Louis L 64-84 5%    
  Dec 03, 2022 254   @ Austin Peay L 66-71 35%    
  Dec 11, 2022 225   Lipscomb L 76-77 49%    
  Dec 14, 2022 335   Charleston Southern W 78-70 75%    
  Dec 29, 2022 187   Morehead St. L 66-69 42%    
  Dec 31, 2022 261   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 05, 2023 326   @ SIU Edwardsville W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 355   @ Lindenwood W 76-68 73%    
  Jan 12, 2023 352   Tennessee Martin W 82-69 84%    
  Jan 14, 2023 305   @ Tennessee Tech L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 19, 2023 330   Eastern Illinois W 74-66 73%    
  Jan 21, 2023 261   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 26, 2023 281   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 28, 2023 355   Lindenwood W 79-65 86%    
  Feb 02, 2023 339   @ Southern Indiana W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 330   @ Eastern Illinois W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 09, 2023 281   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-77 61%    
  Feb 11, 2023 305   Tennessee Tech W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 16, 2023 187   @ Morehead St. L 63-72 25%    
  Feb 18, 2023 326   SIU Edwardsville W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 23, 2023 352   @ Tennessee Martin W 79-72 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 339   Southern Indiana W 76-67 76%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 4.4 3.8 2.3 0.8 15.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 5.5 5.2 2.4 0.4 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.4 5.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.7 5.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.2 7.6 9.2 10.5 11.3 10.7 10.3 8.9 6.8 4.2 2.3 0.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.2 0.1
16-2 89.7% 3.8    3.0 0.8 0.0
15-3 64.3% 4.4    2.7 1.5 0.2
14-4 32.8% 2.9    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 11.0% 1.1    0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 10.1 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 75.0% 74.0% 1.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3.8%
17-1 2.3% 57.0% 57.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.0
16-2 4.2% 45.4% 45.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 2.3
15-3 6.8% 33.3% 33.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 4.5
14-4 8.9% 24.2% 24.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 6.7
13-5 10.3% 17.2% 17.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 8.5
12-6 10.7% 11.5% 11.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 9.4
11-7 11.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 10.4
10-8 10.5% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.9
9-9 9.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.9
8-10 7.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 7.4
7-11 6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.2
6-12 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.6
5-13 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 6.5 86.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 91.4% 10.8 4.3 4.3 26.7 25.9 21.6 8.6