IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.8	#248
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.5	#278
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.3	#277

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.5	#187

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.7%	11.4%	3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%
Average Seed	14.3	13.1	14.5

.500 or above	24.3%	64.0%	22.7%
.500 or above in Conference	39.0%	68.8%	37.8%
Conference Champion	3.4%	10.9%	3.1%
Last Place in Conference	13.7%	3.0%	14.1%

First Four	1.1%	1.6%	1.1%
First Round	3.2%	10.7%	2.9%
Second Round	0.3%	1.4%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 13
Quad 4	6 - 4	9 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	38	@ Oklahoma St.	L	58-77	4%
Nov 18, 2022	126	Nevada	L	70-74	36%
Nov 21, 2022	201	Drexel	L	65-68	41%
Dec 02, 2022	47	@ LSU	L	60-77	7%
Dec 06, 2022	79	North Texas	L	54-62	24%
Dec 10, 2022	168	Texas St.	L	61-65	37%
Dec 19, 2022	83	@ San Francisco	L	63-77	13%
Dec 21, 2022	128	@ California	L	57-67	21%
Dec 29, 2022	245	@ Tarleton St.	L	60-63	40%
Dec 31, 2022	166	Stephen F. Austin	L	68-69	47%
Jan 05, 2023	156	Utah Valley	L	65-66	46%
Jan 07, 2023	173	Seattle	L	69-70	48%
Jan 12, 2023	116	@ Grand Canyon	L	60-70	20%
Jan 14, 2023	111	@ New Mexico St.	L	60-71	20%
Jan 19, 2023	303	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	74-66	73%
Jan 21, 2023	147	@ Abilene Christian	L	66-74	26%
Jan 25, 2023	193	California Baptist	W	68-67	50%
Feb 01, 2023	245	Tarleton St.	W	63-60	59%
Feb 04, 2023	175	Sam Houston St.	L	63-64	49%
Feb 09, 2023	303	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	71-69	55%
Feb 15, 2023	175	@ Sam Houston St.	L	60-66	30%
Feb 18, 2023	166	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	65-72	30%
Feb 23, 2023	177	Southern Utah	L	71-72	49%
Feb 25, 2023	253	Utah Tech	W	61-57	61%
Mar 01, 2023	156	@ Utah Valley	L	62-69	28%
Mar 03, 2023	173	@ Seattle	L	66-73	30%
Projected Record						9 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.0		3.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.0	1.7	1.2	0.5	0.1				4.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.3	2.3	1.4	0.3	0.0					5.5	3rd
4th										0.1	1.4	3.0	1.5	0.3	0.0						6.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.2	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.0							6.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.9	3.5	2.7	0.4	0.0								7.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.3	3.6	0.8	0.0									8.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	3.0	4.2	1.3	0.0										8.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	2.5	4.5	1.7	0.1	0.0										9.3	9th
10th				0.0	0.3	2.4	4.6	2.2	0.2	0.0											9.7	10th
11th			0.0	0.5	2.5	4.2	2.6	0.4	0.0												10.3	11th
12th		0.1	1.0	2.9	3.8	2.0	0.5	0.0													10.4	12th
13th	0.6	1.9	2.7	2.4	1.0	0.2	0.0														8.7	13th

Total	0.6	2.0	3.7	5.9	7.7	9.3	10.7	10.8	10.5	9.9	8.2	7.0	5.2	3.9	2.3	1.5	0.7	0.3	0.0			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
16-2	90.5%	0.6		0.5	0.1	0.0
15-3	65.5%	1.0		0.6	0.3	0.1
14-4	36.4%	0.8		0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	13.2%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0							0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.4%	3.4		1.8	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		60.6%	53.0%	7.6%	8.4						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0					0.0		16.1%
17-1	0.3%		44.9%	33.0%	12.0%	11.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2		17.8%
16-2	0.7%		30.5%	24.3%	6.2%	11.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.5		8.2%
15-3	1.5%		22.2%	21.4%	0.9%	12.7										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.2		1.1%
14-4	2.3%		16.6%	16.5%	0.1%	13.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.9		0.1%
13-5	3.9%		12.4%	12.4%		13.8												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.4
12-6	5.2%		8.8%	8.8%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	4.7
11-7	7.0%		6.2%	6.2%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	6.6
10-8	8.2%		4.5%	4.5%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	7.8
9-9	9.9%		3.0%	3.0%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	9.6
8-10	10.5%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.3
7-11	10.8%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	10.6
6-12	10.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	10.6
5-13	9.3%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.2
4-14	7.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.7
3-15	5.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.9
2-16	3.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.7
1-17	2.0%																							2.0
0-18	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		3.7%	3.6%	0.1%	14.3						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.7	1.3	96.3		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%