Preseason Rankings
Nevada
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#126
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.0#33
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#99
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#168
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 10.1% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.7% 5.5% 0.5%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 13.0
.500 or above 51.4% 56.8% 22.6%
.500 or above in Conference 41.8% 45.6% 22.1%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.1% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 8.9% 21.9%
First Four2.0% 2.2% 0.8%
First Round8.0% 9.1% 2.2%
Second Round2.8% 3.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 5
Quad 22 - 43 - 9
Quad 35 - 48 - 13
Quad 46 - 114 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 253   Utah Tech W 72-61 84%    
  Nov 12, 2022 116   Grand Canyon W 74-72 58%    
  Nov 18, 2022 248   @ Texas Arlington W 74-70 64%    
  Nov 21, 2022 82   Tulane L 76-80 36%    
  Nov 28, 2022 175   Sam Houston St. W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 03, 2022 155   @ Loyola Marymount L 75-76 47%    
  Dec 06, 2022 194   @ Pepperdine W 81-80 54%    
  Dec 10, 2022 26   @ Oregon L 72-85 15%    
  Dec 14, 2022 264   UC San Diego W 84-72 83%    
  Dec 21, 2022 190   Norfolk St. W 78-71 71%    
  Dec 28, 2022 77   Boise St. L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 31, 2022 231   @ Air Force W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 04, 2023 78   Colorado St. L 74-76 45%    
  Jan 07, 2023 210   @ San Jose St. W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 10, 2023 23   @ San Diego St. L 64-78 14%    
  Jan 13, 2023 76   Utah St. L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 17, 2023 77   @ Boise St. L 68-76 26%    
  Jan 23, 2023 110   New Mexico W 84-82 57%    
  Jan 28, 2023 105   @ UNLV L 71-76 36%    
  Jan 31, 2023 23   San Diego St. L 67-75 27%    
  Feb 03, 2023 231   Air Force W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 07, 2023 110   @ New Mexico L 81-85 38%    
  Feb 10, 2023 99   Fresno St. W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 76   @ Utah St. L 71-79 27%    
  Feb 21, 2023 210   San Jose St. W 78-70 73%    
  Feb 24, 2023 99   @ Fresno St. L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 27, 2023 62   @ Wyoming L 71-80 24%    
  Mar 04, 2023 105   UNLV W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.0 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.3 3.9 1.4 0.2 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.4 4.4 1.4 0.1 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 4.3 1.3 0.1 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 3.5 1.0 0.1 11.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.6 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.0 11th
Total 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.2 6.9 9.0 10.3 11.0 10.9 9.9 9.1 7.6 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 91.4% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 64.9% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 32.5% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 95.8% 30.7% 65.0% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.9%
16-2 0.8% 89.2% 33.0% 56.2% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 83.9%
15-3 1.5% 75.5% 19.5% 55.9% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 69.5%
14-4 2.6% 53.4% 13.1% 40.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 46.4%
13-5 4.1% 35.9% 12.0% 23.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 27.2%
12-6 5.9% 19.9% 9.9% 9.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 11.0%
11-7 7.6% 10.5% 6.7% 3.8% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.8 4.1%
10-8 9.1% 6.4% 5.6% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.9%
9-9 9.9% 4.0% 3.8% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.6 0.1%
8-10 10.9% 2.9% 2.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.6
7-11 11.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.7
6-12 10.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 9.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.9
4-14 6.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.8
3-15 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.2
2-16 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 8.9% 4.4% 4.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 91.1 4.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%