Preseason Rankings
UAB
Conference USA
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#60
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.8#83
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.3% 5.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 9.1% 9.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.2% 39.4% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.9% 18.0% 0.9%
Average Seed 9.2 9.2 12.9
.500 or above 92.8% 92.9% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.9% 91.0% 57.9%
Conference Champion 37.8% 38.0% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 4.8%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 1.5%
First Round37.3% 37.4% 6.1%
Second Round18.1% 18.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen7.4% 7.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight2.9% 2.9% 0.0%
Final Four1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 23 - 4
Quad 38 - 311 - 7
Quad 410 - 121 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 354   Alabama St. W 89-60 99.6%   
  Nov 11, 2022 108   Toledo W 81-76 66%    
  Nov 16, 2022 310   Presbyterian W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 21, 2022 142   South Florida W 73-65 74%    
  Nov 30, 2022 160   Jacksonville W 73-61 84%    
  Dec 04, 2022 205   South Alabama W 80-66 87%    
  Dec 10, 2022 56   @ West Virginia L 74-77 39%    
  Dec 14, 2022 87   South Carolina W 79-74 67%    
  Dec 18, 2022 279   Southern W 85-67 93%    
  Dec 22, 2022 164   Charlotte W 79-67 83%    
  Dec 29, 2022 148   UTEP W 77-66 81%    
  Dec 31, 2022 249   Texas San Antonio W 84-68 90%    
  Jan 05, 2023 125   @ Florida Atlantic W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 07, 2023 224   @ Florida International W 79-70 76%    
  Jan 11, 2023 107   Western Kentucky W 81-73 73%    
  Jan 14, 2023 121   @ Louisiana Tech W 76-73 58%    
  Jan 16, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 21, 2023 79   North Texas W 66-61 64%    
  Jan 26, 2023 121   Louisiana Tech W 79-70 75%    
  Jan 28, 2023 206   @ Rice W 81-73 73%    
  Feb 02, 2023 125   Florida Atlantic W 80-71 76%    
  Feb 04, 2023 224   Florida International W 82-67 88%    
  Feb 09, 2023 79   @ North Texas L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 11, 2023 137   Middle Tennessee W 79-69 79%    
  Feb 16, 2023 148   @ UTEP W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 18, 2023 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-71 78%    
  Feb 23, 2023 206   Rice W 84-70 86%    
  Feb 25, 2023 107   @ Western Kentucky W 78-76 55%    
  Mar 04, 2023 164   @ Charlotte W 76-70 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 6.3 8.9 8.9 6.5 3.1 37.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 6.1 4.9 2.3 0.5 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.4 4.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.0 0.2 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.3 9.4 10.5 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.4 6.5 3.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
19-1 100.0% 6.5    6.4 0.1
18-2 94.6% 8.9    7.9 0.9 0.0
17-3 79.0% 8.9    6.6 2.2 0.1
16-4 53.8% 6.3    3.5 2.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 27.4% 3.1    1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1
14-6 9.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.8% 37.8 29.0 7.4 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.1% 98.1% 62.1% 36.1% 3.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.0%
19-1 6.5% 92.4% 53.7% 38.6% 5.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 83.5%
18-2 9.4% 82.2% 45.6% 36.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.7 67.3%
17-3 11.2% 67.0% 37.8% 29.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.7 46.9%
16-4 11.7% 47.1% 31.0% 16.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.2 23.3%
15-5 11.3% 31.9% 25.3% 6.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.7 8.9%
14-6 10.5% 22.1% 20.0% 2.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.2 2.7%
13-7 9.4% 15.1% 14.6% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.0 0.6%
12-8 7.3% 12.0% 11.9% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.5 0.2%
11-9 6.0% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5 0.0%
10-10 4.5% 7.6% 7.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
9-11 3.3% 6.2% 6.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.1
8-12 2.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2
7-13 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 39.2% 26.0% 13.2% 9.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 3.0 4.5 8.1 6.5 2.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 60.8 17.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 99.6% 2.4 25.8 30.8 24.7 14.9 2.3 1.2