Preseason Rankings
UCLA
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#8
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#276
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 14.8% 14.9% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 27.7% 27.8% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 46.1% 46.3% 5.5%
Top 6 Seed 60.4% 60.6% 14.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.5% 83.8% 45.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.8% 79.1% 35.7%
Average Seed 4.6 4.6 8.1
.500 or above 96.9% 97.0% 74.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 91.4% 62.3%
Conference Champion 34.9% 35.0% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four2.6% 2.6% 6.6%
First Round82.3% 82.5% 43.5%
Second Round65.5% 65.8% 21.7%
Sweet Sixteen40.5% 40.7% 9.0%
Elite Eight23.5% 23.7% 5.0%
Final Four12.6% 12.7% 3.3%
Championship Game6.9% 7.0% 1.3%
National Champion3.7% 3.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 5
Quad 25 - 211 - 7
Quad 36 - 116 - 7
Quad 46 - 023 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 275   Sacramento St. W 80-54 99%    
  Nov 11, 2022 188   Long Beach St. W 85-64 97%    
  Nov 14, 2022 190   Norfolk St. W 79-58 97%    
  Nov 18, 2022 18   Illinois W 72-69 58%    
  Nov 23, 2022 194   Pepperdine W 84-63 96%    
  Nov 27, 2022 250   Bellarmine W 78-54 98%    
  Dec 01, 2022 57   @ Stanford W 71-66 65%    
  Dec 04, 2022 26   Oregon W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 10, 2022 346   Denver W 86-53 99.6%   
  Dec 14, 2022 48   @ Maryland W 71-68 61%    
  Dec 17, 2022 3   Kentucky L 71-73 45%    
  Dec 21, 2022 232   UC Davis W 80-57 97%    
  Dec 30, 2022 71   @ Washington St. W 71-65 68%    
  Jan 01, 2023 89   @ Washington W 76-68 73%    
  Jan 05, 2023 37   USC W 73-65 74%    
  Jan 12, 2023 84   Utah W 76-63 85%    
  Jan 14, 2023 59   Colorado W 74-63 80%    
  Jan 19, 2023 61   @ Arizona St. W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 21, 2023 12   @ Arizona L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 26, 2023 37   @ USC W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 02, 2023 89   Washington W 79-65 86%    
  Feb 04, 2023 71   Washington St. W 74-62 82%    
  Feb 09, 2023 204   @ Oregon St. W 79-63 89%    
  Feb 11, 2023 26   @ Oregon W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 16, 2023 57   Stanford W 74-63 79%    
  Feb 18, 2023 128   California W 73-56 91%    
  Feb 24, 2023 84   @ Utah W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 26, 2023 59   @ Colorado W 71-66 64%    
  Mar 02, 2023 61   Arizona St. W 74-63 80%    
  Mar 04, 2023 12   Arizona W 79-75 63%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.3 5.4 8.2 8.8 6.7 3.0 34.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 6.0 5.5 2.9 0.6 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.7 3.2 0.8 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.1 10.3 11.8 11.6 11.2 9.4 6.7 3.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.0    3.0
19-1 100.0% 6.7    6.4 0.2
18-2 93.1% 8.8    7.5 1.3 0.0
17-3 72.9% 8.2    5.6 2.4 0.2
16-4 46.2% 5.4    2.7 2.1 0.5 0.0
15-5 19.5% 2.3    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.9% 34.9 26.0 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.0% 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 1.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 100.0%
19-1 6.7% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 1.4 4.4 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.4% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 1.8 4.4 3.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.2% 99.9% 31.3% 68.6% 2.5 2.6 3.7 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 11.6% 99.8% 25.4% 74.4% 3.6 0.8 2.3 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 11.8% 99.0% 20.7% 78.3% 4.8 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
14-6 10.3% 96.9% 17.1% 79.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.3%
13-7 9.1% 90.3% 14.3% 76.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.9 88.7%
12-8 7.5% 76.4% 10.9% 65.4% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 73.5%
11-9 6.0% 57.8% 9.3% 48.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 53.5%
10-10 4.5% 37.1% 6.8% 30.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8 32.5%
9-11 3.3% 16.7% 6.7% 10.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 10.7%
8-12 2.3% 6.5% 4.4% 2.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.2%
7-13 1.4% 4.8% 4.7% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.2%
6-14 0.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 83.5% 22.2% 61.3% 4.6 14.8 12.9 9.9 8.5 7.6 6.6 5.9 5.3 4.5 4.0 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 16.5 78.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.1 87.6 11.9 0.5