Preseason Rankings
VMI
Southern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#272
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.2#95
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#195
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#323
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 6.1% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.6 14.8
.500 or above 24.1% 60.5% 21.4%
.500 or above in Conference 23.4% 49.2% 21.5%
Conference Champion 1.8% 6.3% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 28.2% 9.7% 29.6%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.7%
First Round2.0% 5.7% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 6.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 48 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 88   @ Richmond L 66-82 7%    
  Nov 13, 2022 81   @ Davidson L 66-82 7%    
  Nov 18, 2022 152   @ Longwood L 69-79 20%    
  Nov 19, 2022 326   SIU Edwardsville W 78-74 64%    
  Nov 20, 2022 319   Fairleigh Dickinson W 83-79 63%    
  Nov 29, 2022 310   @ Presbyterian W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 03, 2022 246   Navy W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 10, 2022 293   Radford W 73-68 66%    
  Dec 13, 2022 312   @ American W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 22, 2022 202   @ Fordham L 68-75 27%    
  Dec 29, 2022 96   @ Furman L 67-82 11%    
  Dec 31, 2022 189   East Tennessee St. L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 04, 2023 172   @ Samford L 76-85 24%    
  Jan 07, 2023 130   @ Chattanooga L 66-78 18%    
  Jan 11, 2023 139   UNC Greensboro L 66-71 36%    
  Jan 14, 2023 181   @ Wofford L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 19, 2023 198   Mercer L 72-74 45%    
  Jan 21, 2023 265   The Citadel W 82-79 58%    
  Jan 25, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-74 20%    
  Jan 28, 2023 268   Western Carolina W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 02, 2023 265   @ The Citadel L 79-82 40%    
  Feb 04, 2023 198   @ Mercer L 69-77 27%    
  Feb 08, 2023 96   Furman L 70-79 24%    
  Feb 10, 2023 189   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 15, 2023 130   Chattanooga L 69-75 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 172   Samford L 79-82 42%    
  Feb 22, 2023 181   Wofford L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 25, 2023 268   @ Western Carolina L 77-80 40%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.8 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.1 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.3 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 4.4 6.1 4.6 1.4 0.1 18.3 9th
10th 1.8 4.4 5.9 4.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 20.3 10th
Total 1.8 4.5 7.5 9.6 11.3 11.9 11.2 10.1 8.8 7.1 5.6 4.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 79.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 50.3% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 55.1% 55.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 59.8% 39.1% 20.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.0%
16-2 0.2% 40.8% 34.2% 6.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.2%
15-3 0.5% 23.0% 22.5% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6%
14-4 1.2% 17.3% 17.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 1.8% 13.0% 13.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-6 2.8% 9.7% 9.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
11-7 4.1% 6.0% 6.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
10-8 5.6% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.4
9-9 7.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.9
8-10 8.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.6
7-11 10.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 9.9
6-12 11.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.1
5-13 11.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.8
4-14 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
3-15 9.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.6
2-16 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.4
1-17 4.5% 4.5
0-18 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%