Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#251
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#203
Pace66.2#253
Improvement-0.1#253

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#329
First Shot-7.5#349
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#86
Layup/Dunks-4.5#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#220
Freethrows+0.1#167
Improvement+0.0#199

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#136
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#58
Layups/Dunks-8.1#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#82
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#23
Freethrows-0.5#208
Improvement-0.1#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.0% 25.0% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 61.4% 66.6% 40.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.3% 84.5% 73.2%
Conference Champion 21.9% 23.7% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.4% 3.3%
First Four8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
First Round18.6% 20.6% 10.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 413 - 614 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 6   @ Indiana L 53-88 2%     0 - 1 -13.7 -10.3 -2.6
  Nov 12, 2022 234   Bellarmine W 62-55 59%     1 - 1 +0.3 -9.5 +10.6
  Nov 15, 2022 14   @ West Virginia L 57-75 2%     1 - 2 +1.4 -6.5 +8.1
  Nov 18, 2022 88   @ Vanderbilt L 43-76 11%     1 - 3 -24.0 -25.6 +1.6
  Nov 26, 2022 93   @ Marshall L 59-83 12%     1 - 4 -15.7 -10.0 -5.6
  Dec 03, 2022 325   North Alabama W 72-63 81%    
  Dec 11, 2022 239   East Tennessee St. W 67-64 59%    
  Dec 14, 2022 294   @ Georgia Southern L 62-63 50%    
  Dec 17, 2022 197   @ Mercer L 62-68 29%    
  Dec 29, 2022 272   @ Tennessee St. L 65-67 44%    
  Dec 31, 2022 329   @ Tennessee Martin W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 05, 2023 224   Southern Indiana W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 07, 2023 355   Eastern Illinois W 70-57 89%    
  Jan 12, 2023 314   @ Tennessee Tech W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 14, 2023 237   Southeast Missouri St. W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 19, 2023 233   @ SIU Edwardsville L 64-68 38%    
  Jan 21, 2023 333   @ Lindenwood W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 26, 2023 320   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 28, 2023 233   SIU Edwardsville W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 02, 2023 314   Tennessee Tech W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 04, 2023 224   @ Southern Indiana L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 09, 2023 320   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 11, 2023 237   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 16, 2023 272   Tennessee St. W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 333   Lindenwood W 72-61 82%    
  Feb 23, 2023 355   @ Eastern Illinois W 67-60 74%    
  Feb 25, 2023 329   Tennessee Martin W 76-66 80%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.1 5.5 3.6 1.4 0.4 21.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.8 6.7 3.3 0.9 0.1 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 5.7 5.6 2.0 0.2 15.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.4 4.6 1.2 0.1 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.6 3.6 0.9 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.0 4.6 7.4 9.9 11.7 13.1 13.7 12.7 9.5 6.3 3.6 1.4 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 98.2% 3.6    3.3 0.3
15-3 86.0% 5.5    4.1 1.3 0.1
14-4 63.5% 6.1    3.4 2.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 30.7% 3.9    1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.1% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.9% 21.9 14.1 5.9 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 78.1% 78.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.4% 70.3% 70.3% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4
16-2 3.6% 60.1% 60.1% 14.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.5
15-3 6.3% 52.1% 52.1% 15.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.8 3.0
14-4 9.5% 39.8% 39.8% 15.4 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.7 5.7
13-5 12.7% 32.6% 32.6% 15.6 0.1 1.3 2.7 8.6
12-6 13.7% 24.3% 24.3% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.8 10.3
11-7 13.1% 17.7% 17.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2 10.8
10-8 11.7% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 1.4 10.3
9-9 9.9% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.7 9.2
8-10 7.4% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.4 7.0
7-11 4.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 4.5
6-12 3.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 0.6 2.9 6.4 13.1 77.0 0.0%