West Virginia
Big 12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.4#14
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#19
Pace70.5#128
Improvement+0.1#119

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#21
First Shot+4.2#68
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#19
Layup/Dunks+0.0#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#164
Freethrows+2.1#72
Improvement+0.0#192

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#20
First Shot+9.4#12
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#242
Layups/Dunks+5.4#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#35
Freethrows-1.4#261
Improvement+0.1#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.5% 5.1% 1.8%
#1 Seed 14.5% 19.5% 9.2%
Top 2 Seed 31.0% 40.2% 21.1%
Top 4 Seed 60.9% 71.2% 50.0%
Top 6 Seed 79.6% 87.0% 71.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.2% 97.4% 90.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.1% 96.8% 89.4%
Average Seed 4.0 3.5 4.6
.500 or above 98.0% 99.3% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 86.6% 79.1%
Conference Champion 22.9% 26.7% 18.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.4% 2.7%
First Four2.1% 1.3% 2.9%
First Round93.5% 96.9% 89.8%
Second Round77.1% 83.1% 70.7%
Sweet Sixteen47.4% 53.9% 40.4%
Elite Eight24.8% 29.9% 19.4%
Final Four12.1% 15.0% 9.0%
Championship Game5.9% 7.5% 4.1%
National Champion2.8% 3.6% 1.9%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 51.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 26 - 114 - 9
Quad 33 - 017 - 9
Quad 45 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 205   Mount St. Mary's W 76-58 97%     1 - 0 +13.1 +1.6 +11.6
  Nov 11, 2022 105   @ Pittsburgh W 81-56 80%     2 - 0 +32.4 +14.3 +19.1
  Nov 15, 2022 251   Morehead St. W 75-57 98%     3 - 0 +10.7 +1.2 +9.3
  Nov 18, 2022 159   Penn W 92-58 95%     4 - 0 +31.4 +18.8 +14.0
  Nov 24, 2022 3   Purdue L 68-80 37%     4 - 1 +7.7 +4.6 +2.8
  Nov 25, 2022 189   Portland St. W 89-71 94%     5 - 1 +17.0 +6.5 +9.0
  Nov 27, 2022 66   Florida W 84-55 78%     6 - 1 +37.1 +7.2 +27.3
  Dec 03, 2022 28   @ Xavier W 77-76 52%    
  Dec 07, 2022 167   Navy W 78-59 97%    
  Dec 10, 2022 41   UAB W 85-76 80%    
  Dec 18, 2022 190   Buffalo W 87-66 97%    
  Dec 22, 2022 342   Stony Brook W 86-54 99.8%   
  Dec 31, 2022 45   @ Kansas St. W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 02, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 07, 2023 17   Kansas W 73-70 63%    
  Jan 11, 2023 20   Baylor W 80-75 66%    
  Jan 14, 2023 40   @ Oklahoma W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 18, 2023 52   TCU W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 21, 2023 4   Texas W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 25, 2023 27   @ Texas Tech W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 28, 2023 29   Auburn W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 31, 2023 52   @ TCU W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 04, 2023 40   Oklahoma W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 08, 2023 33   Iowa St. W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 11, 2023 4   @ Texas L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 13, 2023 20   @ Baylor L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 18, 2023 27   Texas Tech W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 20, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 25, 2023 17   @ Kansas L 70-73 42%    
  Feb 27, 2023 33   @ Iowa St. W 67-65 58%    
  Mar 04, 2023 45   Kansas St. W 74-65 80%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.7 4.7 6.3 5.5 3.1 1.2 0.2 22.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.9 6.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 6.8 4.6 1.4 0.2 17.0 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 5.5 3.2 0.6 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.0 0.3 6.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.6 7.5 9.9 12.4 13.8 13.7 12.5 9.6 6.4 3.2 1.2 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 98.4% 3.1    2.9 0.2
15-3 86.2% 5.5    4.5 1.0 0.0
14-4 64.9% 6.3    3.8 2.2 0.2
13-5 37.2% 4.7    2.0 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.0
12-6 12.5% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 14.9 6.2 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 100.0% 35.6% 64.4% 1.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
16-2 3.2% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 1.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.4% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 1.5 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.6% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 1.8 3.7 4.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.5% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 2.4 2.3 4.9 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.7% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 3.1 0.9 3.1 5.1 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.8% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 4.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.4% 99.9% 11.5% 88.4% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 3.7 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.9%
9-9 9.9% 99.0% 10.6% 88.5% 6.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
8-10 7.5% 93.5% 9.3% 84.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 92.8%
7-11 4.6% 69.8% 7.3% 62.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 67.5%
6-12 2.5% 38.3% 6.0% 32.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 34.4%
5-13 1.5% 10.5% 5.3% 5.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 5.6%
4-14 0.6% 6.5% 6.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.2% 15.9% 78.3% 4.0 14.5 16.5 16.0 14.0 10.9 7.8 4.9 3.1 2.3 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.8 93.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 77.3 22.7