Marshall
Sun Belt
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#93
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#122
Pace79.6#11
Improvement+0.2#36

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#92
First Shot+2.1#106
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks+2.4#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#133
Freethrows-5.5#363
Improvement+0.0#223

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#103
First Shot+3.6#70
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#261
Layups/Dunks-4.7#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#33
Freethrows+3.3#31
Improvement+0.2#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 19.9% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 2.3% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 13.1
.500 or above 98.6% 99.5% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 94.5% 89.4%
Conference Champion 23.6% 25.8% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 0.4%
First Round17.6% 19.2% 12.6%
Second Round3.8% 4.3% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 48 - 7
Quad 414 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 245   @ Queens L 82-83 73%     0 - 1 -2.2 +2.6 -4.8
  Nov 14, 2022 314   Tennessee Tech W 91-65 94%     1 - 1 +14.0 +6.6 +6.3
  Nov 17, 2022 287   @ Miami (OH) W 95-69 80%     2 - 1 +22.5 +1.0 +17.5
  Nov 19, 2022 312   Coppin St. W 86-67 93%     3 - 1 +7.2 -4.2 +9.3
  Nov 21, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 82-70 98%     4 - 1 -7.2 -0.1 -6.6
  Nov 26, 2022 251   Morehead St. W 83-59 88%     5 - 1 +16.7 +9.9 +6.8
  Nov 30, 2022 137   Akron W 68-57 72%     6 - 1 +10.4 -5.8 +16.0
  Dec 03, 2022 152   Ohio W 80-73 76%    
  Dec 08, 2022 133   @ Duquesne L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 10, 2022 249   @ Robert Morris W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 13, 2022 227   @ UNC Greensboro W 72-66 70%    
  Dec 17, 2022 101   Toledo W 88-84 63%    
  Dec 29, 2022 203   Appalachian St. W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 31, 2022 61   James Madison L 79-80 49%    
  Jan 05, 2023 294   @ Georgia Southern W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 07, 2023 236   Coastal Carolina W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 12, 2023 111   Southern Miss W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 14, 2023 145   Old Dominion W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 19, 2023 166   @ Texas St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 270   @ Arkansas St. W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 26, 2023 316   Louisiana Monroe W 85-67 94%    
  Jan 28, 2023 204   Georgia St. W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 02, 2023 203   @ Appalachian St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 04, 2023 121   @ Louisiana L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 09, 2023 236   @ Coastal Carolina W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 204   @ Georgia St. W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 16, 2023 294   Georgia Southern W 80-65 91%    
  Feb 18, 2023 154   Troy W 79-72 75%    
  Feb 22, 2023 61   @ James Madison L 77-83 29%    
  Feb 24, 2023 145   @ Old Dominion W 72-71 53%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 5.0 7.5 5.8 2.8 0.6 23.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 6.8 7.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.2 6.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.9 4.9 1.5 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.4 3.2 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.3 1.3 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.3 0.1 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.2 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.2 9.3 12.3 14.8 16.1 14.0 10.9 6.3 2.8 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.8% 2.8    2.7 0.1
16-2 91.9% 5.8    4.7 1.0 0.0
15-3 69.0% 7.5    4.5 2.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 35.6% 5.0    1.5 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.9% 1.8    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.6% 23.6 14.2 6.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 81.5% 46.2% 35.3% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 65.6%
17-1 2.8% 58.6% 39.6% 19.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 31.4%
16-2 6.3% 38.9% 30.8% 8.1% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.9 11.7%
15-3 10.9% 28.2% 26.2% 2.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 7.8 2.7%
14-4 14.0% 21.8% 21.3% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 11.0 0.5%
13-5 16.1% 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 12.9 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 13.2 0.0%
12-6 14.8% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.8
11-7 12.3% 10.3% 10.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.0
10-8 9.3% 8.2% 8.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.5
9-9 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.8
8-10 3.7% 4.6% 4.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.5
7-11 1.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.1% 16.6% 1.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.3 5.1 5.8 2.9 0.7 0.2 81.9 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.1 2.2 4.4 8.9 20.0 20.0 28.9 8.9 4.4 2.2