Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#222
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#217
Pace65.7#261
Improvement+1.0#62

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#241
First Shot-0.1#185
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#318
Layup/Dunks+1.1#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#309
Freethrows-1.0#259
Improvement+1.6#9

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#201
First Shot-0.2#183
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#247
Layups/Dunks+0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#233
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement-0.6#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 18.9% 34.0% 8.2%
.500 or above in Conference 43.2% 65.4% 27.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.9%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round0.9% 1.4% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 41.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 32 - 53 - 11
Quad 49 - 412 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 119   @ San Jose St. L 48-63 21%     0 - 1 -9.5 -20.2 +9.5
  Nov 10, 2022 94   @ Santa Clara L 62-78 15%     0 - 2 -8.0 -12.6 +5.8
  Nov 18, 2022 170   @ Rice L 71-88 29%     0 - 3 -14.2 -4.7 -9.1
  Nov 19, 2022 350   @ Houston Christian W 84-77 75%     1 - 3 -2.9 +7.0 -9.6
  Nov 20, 2022 273   Western Michigan W 63-57 61%     2 - 3 +0.2 -8.7 +9.7
  Nov 30, 2022 173   Florida Gulf Coast L 53-70 49%     2 - 4 -19.7 -14.5 -7.5
  Dec 10, 2022 195   Wofford W 79-57 54%     3 - 4 +18.0 +7.8 +12.0
  Dec 14, 2022 279   Morehead St. L 71-74 71%     3 - 5 -11.8 -2.3 -9.6
  Dec 17, 2022 257   Campbell W 54-53 68%     4 - 5 -6.7 -14.1 +7.5
  Dec 21, 2022 166   @ Ball St. L 54-58 29%     4 - 6 -1.1 -15.4 +14.0
  Dec 29, 2022 183   South Alabama W 64-50 51%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +10.8 -5.8 +17.4
  Dec 31, 2022 244   @ Coastal Carolina W 73-64 45%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +7.4 +2.0 +6.0
  Jan 05, 2023 78   Marshall W 81-76 25%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +9.1 +10.6 -1.5
  Jan 07, 2023 177   Old Dominion L 75-81 OT 50%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -8.9 +0.0 -8.8
  Jan 12, 2023 182   @ Appalachian St. W 67-65 30%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +4.3 +0.5 +3.9
  Jan 14, 2023 97   @ James Madison L 71-83 16%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -4.3 +2.0 -6.1
  Jan 19, 2023 267   Louisiana Monroe L 59-72 69%     8 - 9 4 - 3 -21.2 -5.9 -17.7
  Jan 21, 2023 231   Georgia St. W 58-52 63%     9 - 9 5 - 3 -0.3 -11.4 +11.5
  Jan 26, 2023 210   @ Texas St. L 67-70 36%     9 - 10 5 - 4 -2.3 +2.3 -4.8
  Jan 28, 2023 112   @ Louisiana L 87-94 19%     9 - 11 5 - 5 -0.9 +14.9 -15.7
  Feb 02, 2023 231   @ Georgia St. L 64-66 41%    
  Feb 04, 2023 177   @ Old Dominion L 62-67 30%    
  Feb 09, 2023 97   James Madison L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 11, 2023 308   Arkansas St. W 68-60 78%    
  Feb 16, 2023 78   @ Marshall L 68-80 11%    
  Feb 18, 2023 110   @ Southern Miss L 63-72 19%    
  Feb 22, 2023 244   Coastal Carolina W 72-68 66%    
  Feb 24, 2023 182   Appalachian St. W 65-64 51%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 0.3 1.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 2.4 0.1 4.3 4th
5th 1.6 5.8 1.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.5 7.5 4.6 0.1 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 4.4 9.8 0.9 15.2 7th
8th 0.8 11.0 4.7 0.1 16.5 8th
9th 0.1 4.7 9.1 0.7 14.6 9th
10th 0.9 8.6 2.8 12.3 10th
11th 0.1 3.3 4.7 0.3 8.3 11th
12th 0.5 3.0 0.9 4.3 12th
13th 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 14th
Total 1.2 7.9 19.6 28.1 24.3 13.3 4.8 0.7 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 6.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.7% 5.4% 5.4% 15.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 4.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.1 0.0 4.7
10-8 13.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.1 0.3 13.0
9-9 24.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 24.0
8-10 28.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 27.8
7-11 19.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 19.5
6-12 7.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.9
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.3 1.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%