Mercer
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#200
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#222
Pace64.7#280
Improvement-0.3#273

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#150
First Shot+0.5#150
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#156
Layup/Dunks-1.0#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#266
Freethrows+0.8#124
Improvement-0.3#301

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#251
First Shot+1.3#135
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#350
Layups/Dunks-2.2#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#57
Freethrows-1.6#278
Improvement+0.0#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.4% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 45.1% 54.1% 28.6%
.500 or above in Conference 60.9% 65.1% 53.0%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.9% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.3% 4.4%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.5%
First Round4.1% 4.9% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 411 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 207   @ East Carolina L 75-77 39%     0 - 1 -0.9 +5.5 -6.5
  Nov 15, 2022 205   @ Georgia St. L 83-85 OT 39%     0 - 2 -0.8 +2.8 -3.4
  Nov 19, 2022 209   Winthrop W 77-68 64%     1 - 2 +3.7 +4.4 +0.1
  Nov 21, 2022 188   @ Florida St. L 72-81 36%     1 - 3 -7.0 +2.3 -9.5
  Nov 25, 2022 294   Robert Morris W 72-66 70%     2 - 3 -1.3 -7.5 +6.0
  Nov 26, 2022 236   Fairfield W 60-58 58%     3 - 3 -1.8 -7.8 +6.1
  Nov 27, 2022 118   Towson L 60-70 30%     3 - 4 -6.3 -4.3 -3.2
  Dec 02, 2022 215   Kennesaw St. W 73-69 65%    
  Dec 10, 2022 101   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-76 18%    
  Dec 17, 2022 248   Morehead St. W 68-62 70%    
  Dec 21, 2022 156   @ Troy L 67-73 30%    
  Dec 28, 2022 125   @ Samford L 70-78 24%    
  Dec 31, 2022 149   Chattanooga W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 04, 2023 162   Wofford W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 284   @ Western Carolina W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 11, 2023 86   Furman L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 14, 2023 238   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 19, 2023 332   @ VMI W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 21, 2023 223   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 25, 2023 238   East Tennessee St. W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 28, 2023 270   @ The Citadel W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 02, 2023 223   UNC Greensboro W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 04, 2023 332   VMI W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 08, 2023 125   Samford L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 11, 2023 149   @ Chattanooga L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 15, 2023 162   @ Wofford L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 284   Western Carolina W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 22, 2023 86   @ Furman L 67-78 17%    
  Feb 25, 2023 270   The Citadel W 74-67 73%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.2 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 6.2 4.9 1.2 0.1 15.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 15.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.2 4.5 7.3 10.5 13.2 14.1 13.6 12.1 9.0 6.2 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 91.7% 0.5    0.5 0.1
15-3 72.5% 1.1    0.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 45.6% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.6% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 20.0% 18.8% 1.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5%
16-2 0.6% 24.8% 24.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.6% 18.4% 18.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3
14-4 3.5% 14.9% 14.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.0
13-5 6.2% 11.0% 11.0% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 5.5
12-6 9.0% 7.5% 7.5% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.3
11-7 12.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 11.4
10-8 13.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 13.0
9-9 14.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 13.6
8-10 13.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.9
7-11 10.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.3
6-12 7.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.3
5-13 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.9 95.3 0.0%