Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#218
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#116
Pace67.5#218
Improvement-0.5#332

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#196
First Shot+0.3#157
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#256
Layup/Dunks+1.4#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#324
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement-0.1#178

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#243
First Shot-0.8#207
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#274
Layups/Dunks+5.1#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#351
Freethrows+1.2#116
Improvement-0.4#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.2% 56.7% 41.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 87.2% 96.2% 84.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 97.3% 93.7%
Conference Champion 47.7% 58.0% 44.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four16.0% 12.0% 17.3%
First Round36.7% 50.3% 32.4%
Second Round1.0% 2.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 11 - 5
Quad 415 - 516 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 19   @ Baylor L 70-87 4%     0 - 1 +0.8 +2.6 -2.2
  Nov 14, 2022 9   @ UCLA L 56-86 2%     0 - 2 -9.5 -1.7 -11.1
  Nov 17, 2022 329   @ Monmouth W 64-59 69%     1 - 2 -3.2 -13.4 +10.1
  Nov 19, 2022 344   Alabama A&M W 89-83 82%     2 - 2 -6.8 +3.9 -11.2
  Nov 29, 2022 1   @ Houston L 52-100 1%     2 - 3 -23.6 -0.3 -27.5
  Dec 03, 2022 147   @ Old Dominion L 63-71 24%    
  Dec 10, 2022 287   @ William & Mary W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 14, 2022 271   Bowling Green W 76-71 69%    
  Dec 17, 2022 334   Hampton W 77-68 79%    
  Dec 18, 2022 274   N.C. A&T W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 21, 2022 69   @ Nevada L 65-79 10%    
  Jan 07, 2023 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 74-60 89%    
  Jan 09, 2023 358   @ Delaware St. W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 14, 2023 323   Howard W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 21, 2023 313   @ Coppin St. W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 23, 2023 262   @ Morgan St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 28, 2023 347   South Carolina St. W 81-68 88%    
  Jan 30, 2023 269   NC Central W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 334   Hampton W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 11, 2023 351   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 13, 2023 358   Delaware St. W 79-63 92%    
  Feb 18, 2023 262   Morgan St. W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 20, 2023 313   Coppin St. W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 25, 2023 347   @ South Carolina St. W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 27, 2023 269   @ NC Central L 69-70 48%    
  Mar 02, 2023 323   @ Howard W 75-71 64%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 10 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 6.0 12.9 14.5 9.8 3.1 47.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 7.0 9.9 5.3 1.0 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.2 5.7 1.7 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.2 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.9 9.9 14.4 17.7 18.3 15.5 9.8 3.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
13-1 100.0% 9.8    9.5 0.2
12-2 93.5% 14.5    11.9 2.5 0.0
11-3 70.7% 12.9    7.5 5.0 0.5
10-4 34.2% 6.0    2.0 2.9 1.1 0.1
9-5 8.3% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 47.7% 47.7 34.1 11.0 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 3.1% 84.0% 84.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.5
13-1 9.8% 76.3% 76.3% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.5 1.8 2.3
12-2 15.5% 66.0% 66.0% 15.3 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.6 5.3
11-3 18.3% 54.0% 54.0% 15.6 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.7 8.4
10-4 17.7% 42.0% 42.0% 15.8 0.1 1.1 6.2 10.3
9-5 14.4% 30.2% 30.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.1 10.1
8-6 9.9% 21.7% 21.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1 7.7
7-7 5.9% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 5.2
6-8 3.1% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.3 2.8
5-9 1.5% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 1.4
4-10 0.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-11 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 45.2% 45.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.6 12.9 26.7 54.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 91.7% 12.7 3.3 36.7 31.7 20.0