Baylor
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#19
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#33
Pace71.9#101
Improvement-0.5#335

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#2
First Shot+9.9#7
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#36
Layup/Dunks-0.5#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#17
Freethrows+0.9#114
Improvement+0.0#130

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#110
First Shot-2.0#237
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#6
Layups/Dunks+3.2#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#241
Freethrows-3.2#330
Improvement-0.5#359
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 2.4% 0.5%
#1 Seed 5.8% 10.0% 2.9%
Top 2 Seed 14.9% 23.7% 9.0%
Top 4 Seed 40.3% 54.5% 30.8%
Top 6 Seed 63.0% 76.4% 54.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.3% 93.3% 80.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.2% 92.2% 77.4%
Average Seed 5.1 4.4 5.7
.500 or above 90.6% 96.3% 86.7%
.500 or above in Conference 73.2% 79.4% 69.0%
Conference Champion 14.3% 18.2% 11.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.2% 5.0%
First Four4.1% 2.8% 5.0%
First Round83.8% 92.3% 78.0%
Second Round63.0% 73.6% 55.8%
Sweet Sixteen34.2% 42.6% 28.5%
Elite Eight16.1% 21.3% 12.6%
Final Four7.1% 9.7% 5.4%
Championship Game3.1% 4.2% 2.3%
National Champion1.3% 1.9% 0.9%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Neutral) - 40.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 24 - 112 - 11
Quad 32 - 014 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 117-53 99.7%    1 - 0 +42.2 +20.7 +14.1
  Nov 11, 2022 218   Norfolk St. W 87-70 96%     2 - 0 +10.8 +12.4 -1.2
  Nov 14, 2022 254   Northern Colorado W 95-62 97%     3 - 0 +25.4 +1.9 +19.5
  Nov 18, 2022 14   Virginia L 79-86 43%     3 - 1 +9.5 +16.7 -7.5
  Nov 20, 2022 9   UCLA W 80-75 40%     4 - 1 +22.5 +16.3 +6.3
  Nov 23, 2022 354   McNeese St. W 89-60 99%     5 - 1 +11.5 +7.8 +4.4
  Nov 29, 2022 21   @ Marquette L 70-96 41%     5 - 2 -8.7 +6.3 -15.2
  Dec 02, 2022 11   Gonzaga L 85-88 40%    
  Dec 06, 2022 135   Tarleton St. W 85-70 92%    
  Dec 18, 2022 51   Washington St. W 79-74 69%    
  Dec 20, 2022 282   Northwestern St. W 87-63 99%    
  Dec 28, 2022 249   Nicholls St. W 94-72 98%    
  Dec 31, 2022 33   @ Iowa St. W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 04, 2023 53   TCU W 80-72 78%    
  Jan 07, 2023 47   Kansas St. W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 11, 2023 16   @ West Virginia L 75-80 34%    
  Jan 14, 2023 41   Oklahoma St. W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 17, 2023 26   @ Texas Tech L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 21, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 23, 2023 20   Kansas W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 28, 2023 15   Arkansas W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 30, 2023 4   @ Texas L 72-80 25%    
  Feb 04, 2023 26   Texas Tech W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 08, 2023 38   Oklahoma W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 53   @ TCU W 77-75 59%    
  Feb 13, 2023 16   West Virginia W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 18, 2023 20   @ Kansas L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 21, 2023 47   @ Kansas St. W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 25, 2023 4   Texas L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 27, 2023 41   @ Oklahoma St. W 77-75 55%    
  Mar 04, 2023 33   Iowa St. W 76-69 72%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 4.0 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 14.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.0 5.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.7 6.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.5 6.3 3.4 0.6 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.6 5.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.3 0.3 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 2.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.7 7.3 10.2 12.2 13.5 13.5 12.0 9.5 6.3 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 97.7% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-3 85.1% 3.2    2.5 0.7 0.0
14-4 63.5% 4.0    2.5 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 34.2% 3.2    1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-6 11.1% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 8.7 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.6% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.7% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 1.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 100.0%
14-4 6.3% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.2 1.4 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.5% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 2.9 0.8 2.6 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 100.0%
12-6 12.0% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 3.7 0.2 1.3 4.0 3.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
11-7 13.5% 99.9% 13.5% 86.4% 4.6 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 4.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 13.5% 99.8% 10.8% 89.0% 5.6 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.0 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 12.2% 96.9% 9.1% 87.8% 7.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.0 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 96.6%
8-10 10.2% 80.8% 8.1% 72.8% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 79.2%
7-11 7.3% 45.3% 5.8% 39.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.0 41.9%
6-12 4.7% 18.1% 5.2% 12.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8 13.6%
5-13 2.6% 4.6% 3.7% 0.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 0.9%
4-14 1.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3
3-15 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 85.3% 12.4% 72.9% 5.1 5.8 9.1 12.7 12.7 12.6 10.1 6.7 4.6 3.3 2.8 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 14.7 83.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0