Nevada
Mountain West
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#69
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#41
Pace71.5#109
Improvement+0.3#22

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#54
First Shot+6.3#35
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#273
Layup/Dunks-2.1#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#98
Freethrows+5.7#3
Improvement+0.3#26

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#87
First Shot+5.8#40
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#324
Layups/Dunks+4.2#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#81
Freethrows-2.7#318
Improvement+0.1#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.3% 4.7% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.1% 44.0% 24.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.8% 37.7% 18.9%
Average Seed 9.5 9.3 10.1
.500 or above 94.7% 97.8% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.4% 78.9% 67.9%
Conference Champion 9.2% 11.3% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.9% 2.0%
First Four7.9% 9.1% 6.3%
First Round31.6% 38.9% 21.4%
Second Round12.5% 15.8% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 4.1% 1.7%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 37 - 213 - 10
Quad 46 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 246   Utah Tech W 84-71 91%     1 - 0 +5.7 +8.8 -3.7
  Nov 12, 2022 128   Grand Canyon W 59-46 78%     2 - 0 +12.8 -3.3 +18.3
  Nov 18, 2022 291   @ Texas Arlington W 62-43 86%     3 - 0 +15.0 -9.2 +24.1
  Nov 21, 2022 107   Tulane W 75-66 63%     4 - 0 +13.4 +3.3 +10.2
  Nov 22, 2022 47   Kansas St. L 87-96 OT 42%     4 - 1 +1.0 +15.6 -14.2
  Nov 23, 2022 137   Akron W 62-58 70%     5 - 1 +6.3 -2.5 +9.3
  Nov 28, 2022 63   Sam Houston St. W 78-60 60%     6 - 1 +23.3 +17.1 +7.4
  Dec 03, 2022 132   @ Loyola Marymount W 76-74 58%    
  Dec 06, 2022 134   @ Pepperdine W 77-75 59%    
  Dec 10, 2022 50   @ Oregon L 72-77 33%    
  Dec 14, 2022 283   UC San Diego W 78-61 94%    
  Dec 21, 2022 218   Norfolk St. W 79-65 90%    
  Dec 28, 2022 61   Boise St. W 67-64 59%    
  Dec 31, 2022 219   @ Air Force W 69-61 77%    
  Jan 04, 2023 72   Colorado St. W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 07, 2023 185   @ San Jose St. W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 10, 2023 25   @ San Diego St. L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 13, 2023 34   Utah St. L 78-79 49%    
  Jan 17, 2023 61   @ Boise St. L 64-67 38%    
  Jan 23, 2023 57   New Mexico W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 28, 2023 78   @ UNLV L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 31, 2023 25   San Diego St. L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 03, 2023 219   Air Force W 72-58 90%    
  Feb 07, 2023 57   @ New Mexico L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 10, 2023 154   Fresno St. W 69-59 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 34   @ Utah St. L 75-81 29%    
  Feb 21, 2023 185   San Jose St. W 76-64 85%    
  Feb 24, 2023 154   @ Fresno St. W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 27, 2023 146   @ Wyoming W 72-69 63%    
  Mar 04, 2023 78   UNLV W 73-69 63%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.0 2.8 0.7 0.0 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.4 6.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 14.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.9 2.7 0.3 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.5 1.9 0.2 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.7 1.2 0.2 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.5 7.0 10.1 13.2 14.3 14.1 12.3 9.4 6.1 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 96.8% 1.3    1.1 0.2
15-3 78.5% 2.6    1.8 0.8 0.0
14-4 49.2% 3.0    1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.9% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 4.9 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 98.8% 24.0% 74.9% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
16-2 1.3% 99.8% 25.9% 73.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-3 3.3% 96.1% 18.7% 77.4% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 95.2%
14-4 6.1% 90.2% 16.4% 73.9% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.6 88.3%
13-5 9.4% 78.0% 14.1% 63.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 74.4%
12-6 12.3% 59.4% 12.2% 47.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.0 53.7%
11-7 14.1% 38.6% 8.7% 29.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 8.6 32.7%
10-8 14.3% 21.7% 7.3% 14.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.2 15.5%
9-9 13.2% 12.3% 7.1% 5.2% 11.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.6 5.6%
8-10 10.1% 4.7% 3.9% 0.8% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.8%
7-11 7.0% 3.8% 3.7% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7 0.1%
6-12 4.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3
5-13 2.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 36.1% 8.9% 27.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.5 5.8 7.9 8.9 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 63.9 29.8%