Houston
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.4#1
Expected Predictive Rating+18.7#11
Pace61.7#339
Improvement-0.1#244

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#33
First Shot-0.6#188
After Offensive Rebound+7.5#2
Layup/Dunks+1.1#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#264
Freethrows-1.6#268
Improvement-0.1#263

Defense
Total Defense+14.5#1
First Shot+10.0#6
After Offensive Rebounds+4.5#11
Layups/Dunks+6.8#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.0#3
Freethrows-4.0#339
Improvement+0.0#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 10.0% 11.3% 4.8%
#1 Seed 39.9% 43.5% 25.3%
Top 2 Seed 65.9% 70.6% 47.1%
Top 4 Seed 88.0% 90.7% 76.9%
Top 6 Seed 95.7% 97.2% 89.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.4% 99.6% 98.5%
Average Seed 2.4 2.2 3.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 90.4% 91.3% 87.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round94.7% 95.6% 91.1%
Sweet Sixteen73.5% 75.2% 66.6%
Elite Eight50.9% 52.7% 43.5%
Final Four33.6% 35.3% 26.7%
Championship Game21.4% 22.7% 15.8%
National Champion13.1% 14.0% 9.6%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Neutral) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 2
Quad 26 - 111 - 2
Quad 39 - 020 - 2
Quad 49 - 029 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 253   Northern Colorado W 83-36 99%     1 - 0 +39.5 +9.6 +34.5
  Nov 11, 2022 192   Saint Joseph's W 81-55 97%     2 - 0 +24.7 +9.4 +15.8
  Nov 14, 2022 106   Oral Roberts W 83-45 96%     3 - 0 +39.4 +9.9 +31.2
  Nov 16, 2022 252   Texas Southern W 83-48 99%     4 - 0 +27.6 +13.8 +16.0
  Nov 20, 2022 42   @ Oregon W 66-56 78%     5 - 0 +23.4 +8.9 +16.1
  Nov 26, 2022 53   Kent St. W 49-44 91%     6 - 0 +11.4 -16.8 +28.2
  Nov 29, 2022 218   Norfolk St. W 100-52 99%     7 - 0 +41.9 +32.1 +14.0
  Dec 03, 2022 32   St. Mary's W 61-52 80%    
  Dec 06, 2022 250   North Florida W 79-50 99.6%   
  Dec 10, 2022 12   Alabama W 70-62 76%    
  Dec 13, 2022 274   N.C. A&T W 78-48 99.7%   
  Dec 17, 2022 13   @ Virginia W 59-57 56%    
  Dec 21, 2022 354   McNeese St. W 84-45 100.0%   
  Dec 28, 2022 168   @ Tulsa W 75-57 95%    
  Dec 31, 2022 75   Central Florida W 65-48 94%    
  Jan 05, 2023 153   SMU W 73-50 98%    
  Jan 09, 2023 89   @ Cincinnati W 71-58 87%    
  Jan 11, 2023 185   South Florida W 71-46 99%    
  Jan 17, 2023 104   @ Tulane W 72-58 89%    
  Jan 22, 2023 95   Temple W 71-52 96%    
  Jan 25, 2023 75   @ Central Florida W 62-51 84%    
  Jan 28, 2023 89   Cincinnati W 74-55 95%    
  Feb 02, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. W 65-52 88%    
  Feb 05, 2023 95   @ Temple W 68-55 88%    
  Feb 08, 2023 168   Tulsa W 78-54 99%    
  Feb 16, 2023 153   @ SMU W 70-53 94%    
  Feb 19, 2023 31   Memphis W 69-57 85%    
  Feb 22, 2023 104   Tulane W 75-55 96%    
  Feb 25, 2023 206   @ East Carolina W 74-54 96%    
  Mar 02, 2023 94   Wichita St. W 68-49 96%    
  Mar 05, 2023 31   @ Memphis W 66-60 69%    
Projected Record 29 - 2 16 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 9.3 20.9 31.3 26.0 90.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 2.8 1.1 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.3 5.2 12.1 22.0 31.3 26.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 26.0    26.0
17-1 100.0% 31.3    30.4 0.8
16-2 95.0% 20.9    18.1 2.8 0.0
15-3 76.9% 9.3    6.6 2.6 0.1
14-4 48.8% 2.5    1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 90.4% 90.4 82.4 7.6 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 26.0% 100.0% 77.4% 22.6% 1.3 18.6 6.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 31.3% 100.0% 71.9% 28.1% 1.7 15.9 10.5 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 22.0% 99.9% 64.7% 35.2% 2.6 4.8 7.2 5.2 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-3 12.1% 99.8% 59.4% 40.4% 3.9 0.6 1.7 2.4 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-4 5.2% 99.4% 51.4% 48.1% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.8%
13-5 2.3% 98.9% 49.3% 49.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.8%
12-6 0.8% 96.8% 42.0% 54.8% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.5%
11-7 0.3% 91.4% 44.8% 46.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.4%
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 68.3% 31.5% 2.4 39.9 26.0 12.4 9.6 5.0 2.8 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.8% 100.0% 1.2 79.6 19.7 0.8