UCLA
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#9
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#72
Pace70.1#143
Improvement+0.0#125

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#12
First Shot+8.3#14
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#86
Layup/Dunks+9.0#3
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#274
Freethrows-1.8#288
Improvement+0.0#136

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#31
First Shot+8.0#19
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#221
Layups/Dunks+3.1#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#94
Freethrows+1.6#94
Improvement+0.0#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 2.2% 0.4%
#1 Seed 9.1% 11.0% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 19.9% 23.7% 8.1%
Top 4 Seed 45.2% 51.4% 25.8%
Top 6 Seed 67.7% 73.4% 49.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.5% 96.4% 88.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.4% 94.9% 84.9%
Average Seed 4.9 4.6 6.1
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.4% 96.2%
Conference Champion 41.1% 46.4% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.2% 2.8%
First Round93.9% 95.9% 87.5%
Second Round75.6% 79.1% 64.5%
Sweet Sixteen46.0% 49.8% 34.0%
Elite Eight24.9% 27.3% 17.5%
Final Four13.3% 14.7% 9.0%
Championship Game6.8% 7.6% 4.2%
National Champion3.4% 3.9% 1.9%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 75.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 26 - 111 - 7
Quad 36 - 017 - 8
Quad 46 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 260   Sacramento St. W 76-50 98%     1 - 0 +18.0 +0.2 +18.7
  Nov 11, 2022 165   Long Beach St. W 93-69 96%     2 - 0 +21.3 +7.6 +10.4
  Nov 14, 2022 218   Norfolk St. W 86-56 98%     3 - 0 +23.8 +18.6 +8.5
  Nov 18, 2022 10   Illinois L 70-79 50%     3 - 1 +8.4 +1.4 +7.8
  Nov 20, 2022 19   Baylor L 75-80 60%     3 - 2 +9.8 +5.9 +3.9
  Nov 23, 2022 134   Pepperdine W 100-53 94%     4 - 2 +46.5 +22.9 +21.7
  Nov 27, 2022 233   Bellarmine W 81-60 98%     5 - 2 +14.3 +6.5 +8.8
  Dec 01, 2022 79   @ Stanford W 72-65 76%    
  Dec 04, 2022 50   Oregon W 80-69 85%    
  Dec 10, 2022 309   Denver W 87-58 99.7%   
  Dec 14, 2022 12   @ Maryland L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 17, 2022 17   Kentucky W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 21, 2022 161   UC Davis W 87-67 97%    
  Dec 30, 2022 51   @ Washington St. W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 01, 2023 91   @ Washington W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 05, 2023 73   USC W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 12, 2023 70   Utah W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 14, 2023 44   Colorado W 80-70 83%    
  Jan 19, 2023 40   @ Arizona St. W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 21, 2023 6   @ Arizona L 83-87 37%    
  Jan 26, 2023 73   @ USC W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 02, 2023 91   Washington W 80-65 91%    
  Feb 04, 2023 51   Washington St. W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 09, 2023 217   @ Oregon St. W 79-61 94%    
  Feb 11, 2023 50   @ Oregon W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 16, 2023 79   Stanford W 75-62 88%    
  Feb 18, 2023 231   California W 77-53 98%    
  Feb 24, 2023 70   @ Utah W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 26, 2023 44   @ Colorado W 77-73 66%    
  Mar 02, 2023 40   Arizona St. W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 04, 2023 6   Arizona W 86-84 58%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.1 7.6 11.0 10.5 6.3 2.0 41.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.7 9.6 8.4 4.3 1.0 31.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.0 5.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.5 5.7 8.8 12.3 15.3 16.4 15.3 11.4 6.3 2.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
19-1 100.0% 6.3    6.1 0.2
18-2 91.4% 10.5    8.7 1.8 0.0
17-3 71.8% 11.0    7.7 3.2 0.1
16-4 46.3% 7.6    3.9 3.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 20.2% 3.1    1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1
14-6 5.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.1% 41.1 29.4 10.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.0% 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 100.0%
19-1 6.3% 100.0% 44.1% 55.9% 1.6 3.3 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 11.4% 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 2.3 3.0 4.0 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-3 15.3% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 3.3 1.2 2.9 4.5 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.4% 99.8% 29.4% 70.4% 4.4 0.2 0.9 3.0 4.9 3.9 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 15.3% 99.5% 25.6% 73.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.1 3.7 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
14-6 12.3% 97.9% 21.9% 76.0% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.3%
13-7 8.8% 93.5% 18.7% 74.8% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 92.1%
12-8 5.7% 80.9% 16.7% 64.2% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 77.1%
11-9 3.5% 63.4% 13.4% 50.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 57.7%
10-10 1.6% 35.9% 11.2% 24.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 27.9%
9-11 0.9% 15.8% 9.5% 6.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.9%
8-12 0.3% 12.3% 12.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-13 0.1% 15.4% 15.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.5% 28.0% 66.5% 4.9 9.1 10.8 11.6 13.7 12.0 10.5 9.5 6.7 4.6 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 92.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.2 77.5 22.0 0.5