Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#170
Pace63.5#313
Improvement+0.1#78

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#173
First Shot-0.3#179
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#157
Layup/Dunks-1.1#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#325
Freethrows-0.1#179
Improvement-0.1#218

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#134
First Shot+1.0#147
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#172
Layups/Dunks+4.4#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#261
Freethrows-0.8#229
Improvement+0.2#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.4% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.5
.500 or above 64.3% 70.5% 44.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.1% 70.1% 57.9%
Conference Champion 5.2% 6.0% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.1% 2.2%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round5.6% 6.2% 3.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-65 95%     1 - 0 +2.1 +12.4 -9.1
  Nov 11, 2022 173   @ Drexel L 59-71 44%     1 - 1 -9.2 -8.3 -1.7
  Nov 17, 2022 59   Virginia Tech L 71-75 24%     1 - 2 +4.7 +5.8 -1.3
  Nov 18, 2022 86   Furman W 82-77 32%     2 - 2 +11.2 +6.5 +4.4
  Nov 20, 2022 116   Davidson L 61-66 41%     2 - 3 -1.2 -7.8 +6.2
  Nov 26, 2022 207   East Carolina W 71-50 73%     3 - 3 +16.1 -2.5 +19.3
  Nov 29, 2022 81   @ College of Charleston L 60-75 22%     3 - 4 -5.3 -7.2 +0.9
  Dec 03, 2022 218   Norfolk St. W 71-63 76%    
  Dec 07, 2022 287   William & Mary W 72-61 85%    
  Dec 10, 2022 172   Gardner-Webb W 65-60 67%    
  Dec 21, 2022 158   George Mason W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 29, 2022 272   Arkansas St. W 67-57 82%    
  Dec 31, 2022 122   Louisiana W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 05, 2023 156   @ Troy L 66-68 41%    
  Jan 07, 2023 292   @ Georgia Southern W 67-62 69%    
  Jan 12, 2023 240   Coastal Carolina W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 14, 2023 94   @ Marshall L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 19, 2023 205   Georgia St. W 66-60 71%    
  Jan 21, 2023 204   Appalachian St. W 67-61 71%    
  Jan 26, 2023 148   @ South Alabama L 63-66 39%    
  Jan 28, 2023 240   @ Coastal Carolina W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 02, 2023 60   James Madison L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 04, 2023 292   Georgia Southern W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 09, 2023 205   @ Georgia St. W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 11, 2023 167   @ Texas St. L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 16, 2023 60   @ James Madison L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 18, 2023 204   @ Appalachian St. W 64-63 50%    
  Feb 22, 2023 109   Southern Miss W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 24, 2023 94   Marshall L 71-72 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 5.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.5 4.2 0.8 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.9 1.2 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.4 3.4 5.5 1.8 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.5 3.5 0.4 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.2 1.0 0.1 6.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.1 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.0 8.9 11.7 14.0 14.0 12.8 11.0 7.2 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 94.4% 0.8    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 73.0% 1.6    1.0 0.6 0.1
14-4 34.8% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.6% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 63.2% 21.1% 42.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.3%
17-1 0.3% 52.3% 31.3% 21.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 30.7%
16-2 0.8% 22.5% 20.3% 2.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7%
15-3 2.2% 20.0% 19.0% 1.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.8 1.2%
14-4 4.6% 13.7% 13.6% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.0 0.1%
13-5 7.2% 11.3% 11.3% 13.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.4
12-6 11.0% 7.9% 7.9% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.2
11-7 12.8% 6.8% 6.8% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.0
10-8 14.0% 4.5% 4.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 13.4
9-9 14.0% 4.0% 4.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 13.4
8-10 11.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.1 0.2 11.4
7-11 8.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.7
6-12 6.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.8 94.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 69.0% 8.3 6.9 6.9 6.9 13.8 6.9 27.6