Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
25 Florida Atlantic 63.8%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +12.7      +7.2 19 +5.5 41 69.2 148 0.0 1 0.0 1
27 Memphis 62.6%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +12.4      +7.5 17 +4.9 50 76.4 23 0.0 1 0.0 1
77 UAB 20.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +6.8      +4.2 62 +2.6 96 75.4 29 0.0 1 0.0 1
90 North Texas 14.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 10 - 8 +5.5      -0.5 194 +6.0 34 53.0 362 0.0 1 0.0 1
95 Wichita St. 12.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +4.9      +1.5 132 +3.4 79 65.9 235 0.0 1 0.0 1
99 Tulane 10.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 9 +4.7      +3.9 69 +0.8 145 80.4 3 0.0 1 0.0 1
101 SMU 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +4.3      +1.8 126 +2.5 99 72.4 68 0.0 1 0.0 1
138 Temple 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 +1.9      -0.2 186 +2.1 110 65.7 243 0.0 1 0.0 1
145 South Florida 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.5      -0.1 175 +1.6 121 70.2 130 0.0 1 0.0 1
146 East Carolina 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +1.5      +0.4 159 +1.0 138 68.2 170 0.0 1 0.0 1
156 Charlotte 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 +0.8      -0.4 193 +1.2 136 55.8 361 0.0 1 0.0 1
178 Rice 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 10 -0.3      +2.7 97 -3.0 268 72.6 65 0.0 1 0.0 1
233 Tulsa 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 12 -3.6      -1.5 232 -2.1 240 69.4 145 0.0 1 0.0 1
249 Texas San Antonio 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 5 - 13 -4.7      -0.9 211 -3.8 291 71.4 94 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Florida Atlantic 2.7 40.0 22.2 12.3 8.1 5.7 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0
Memphis 2.9 37.7 21.8 13.0 8.4 6.0 4.3 2.9 2.2 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
UAB 5.6 9.9 11.2 12.1 10.9 10.1 8.9 7.9 7.2 6.0 5.5 4.1 3.2 2.0 1.0
North Texas 6.1 7.7 9.9 10.9 10.3 9.7 9.1 8.1 7.8 6.9 6.0 4.8 4.2 3.1 1.5
Wichita St. 6.4 6.3 8.6 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.3 8.8 8.3 7.1 6.4 5.6 4.5 3.1 1.7
Tulane 7.0 4.9 7.2 8.3 8.4 9.2 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.2 5.8 4.3 2.6
SMU 6.9 4.5 7.7 8.4 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.6 6.6 5.5 4.2 2.2
Temple 7.5 2.9 5.6 7.4 8.3 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.9 8.4 8.2 7.6 7.0 5.6 3.6
South Florida 7.4 3.1 5.9 7.6 8.8 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.4 7.9 7.2 6.4 5.2 3.9
East Carolina 8.2 2.1 4.2 5.6 6.9 7.1 7.9 8.3 8.7 8.7 9.2 9.0 9.1 8.0 5.1
Charlotte 7.9 2.4 4.5 6.4 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.6 9.0 8.7 8.6 8.2 8.0 6.9 5.1
Rice 8.6 1.4 3.1 4.7 5.9 6.6 7.7 8.1 8.8 9.0 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.1 6.9
Tulsa 10.7 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.7 6.1 7.1 9.0 10.9 13.4 17.1 19.7
Texas San Antonio 11.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.1 4.0 5.3 6.4 8.5 10.3 13.4 17.8 25.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Florida Atlantic 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.7 5.4 7.8 10.5 13.2 14.8 15.0 12.5 8.7 3.6
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 4.0 6.1 8.5 10.9 13.1 14.5 14.1 12.4 8.0 3.2
UAB 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.5 5.2 7.3 9.3 10.8 11.5 12.0 11.4 9.6 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.3
North Texas 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.3 5.9 8.4 9.9 11.2 11.8 11.3 10.0 8.5 6.2 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.2
Wichita St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.8 7.0 8.6 10.9 11.6 12.0 11.4 9.9 7.5 5.5 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1
Tulane 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.9 6.2 8.8 10.1 11.1 11.9 11.5 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
SMU 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.9 5.6 8.3 10.2 11.3 12.1 11.9 10.2 8.3 6.4 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1
Temple 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 4.9 7.2 9.3 10.9 11.6 12.1 10.7 9.5 7.2 5.3 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
South Florida 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.7 6.8 8.8 10.6 12.0 11.6 11.1 9.7 7.7 5.4 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.1
East Carolina 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.7 6.8 8.8 10.5 11.7 11.8 10.8 9.7 7.6 6.0 3.6 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.8 6.0 8.1 10.0 11.5 11.7 11.3 10.2 8.3 6.5 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
Rice 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.4 7.7 9.9 11.4 12.1 11.6 10.7 8.9 6.8 5.0 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 6 - 12 1.7 5.1 8.5 11.5 13.1 13.4 12.4 10.2 8.0 6.3 4.2 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 2.6 6.7 10.3 12.7 14.0 12.9 11.8 9.5 7.2 4.9 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida Atlantic 40.0% 28.9 8.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Memphis 37.7% 27.3 8.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
UAB 9.9% 5.9 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Texas 7.7% 4.4 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 6.3% 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tulane 4.9% 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 4.5% 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Temple 2.9% 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Florida 3.1% 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 2.1% 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 2.4% 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida Atlantic 63.8% 27.7% 36.1% 11   4.1 4.8 5.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 4.8 4.9 5.9 7.2 7.7 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 36.2 49.9%
Memphis 62.6% 26.8% 35.8% 10   3.7 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.6 6.1 7.3 6.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 37.4 48.9%
UAB 20.3% 9.1% 11.2% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.9 3.1 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 79.7 12.3%
North Texas 14.5% 6.9% 7.6% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 85.5 8.1%
Wichita St. 12.6% 5.9% 6.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 87.4 7.0%
Tulane 10.5% 5.6% 4.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 89.5 5.2%
SMU 10.0% 5.3% 4.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 90.0 5.0%
Temple 4.5% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 95.5 1.6%
South Florida 3.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 96.3 1.1%
East Carolina 3.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 96.3 1.1%
Charlotte 3.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 97.0 0.9%
Rice 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 98.3 0.4%
Tulsa 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Florida Atlantic 63.8% 5.3% 61.5% 40.8% 20.7% 10.1% 4.9% 2.1% 1.0%
Memphis 62.6% 4.8% 60.2% 39.6% 19.9% 10.0% 4.7% 2.2% 1.0%
UAB 20.3% 3.8% 18.4% 8.8% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
North Texas 14.5% 2.7% 13.1% 5.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Wichita St. 12.6% 2.6% 11.2% 4.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Tulane 10.5% 2.0% 9.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
SMU 10.0% 1.9% 9.1% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 4.5% 1.0% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 3.7% 0.6% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 3.7% 0.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 3.0% 0.6% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 1.7% 0.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 23.5 46.7 24.5 4.8 0.4 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 2.0 0.2 28.1 47.8 20.5 3.2 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 77.4% 1.1 22.6 48.1 25.3 3.8 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 44.2% 0.5 55.8 37.6 6.4 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 22.5% 0.2 77.5 21.1 1.4 0.0
Final Four 10.6% 0.1 89.4 10.3 0.3 0.0
Final Game 4.8% 0.0 95.2 4.8 0.0
Champion 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2