Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
220 Morehead St. 26.5%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 12 - 6 -2.9      -2.9 267 0.0 170 61.1 338 0.0 1 0.0 1
259 SIU Edwardsville 14.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 7 -5.2      -2.9 265 -2.4 246 71.9 81 0.0 1 0.0 1
262 Tennessee St. 13.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 11 - 7 -5.5      -1.0 216 -4.5 311 74.6 38 0.0 1 0.0 1
275 Arkansas Little Rock 10.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 8 -6.2      -0.5 197 -5.7 336 75.6 28 0.0 1 0.0 1
282 Tennessee Martin 9.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -6.7      -1.1 218 -5.6 334 76.2 25 0.0 1 0.0 1
289 Tennessee Tech 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -6.9      -2.4 254 -4.5 309 66.2 225 0.0 1 0.0 1
308 Southeast Missouri St. 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -8.1      -3.3 276 -4.8 318 78.6 10 0.0 1 0.0 1
317 Western Illinois 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 9 -8.8      -4.1 299 -4.7 314 67.0 207 0.0 1 0.0 1
332 Eastern Illinois 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -10.4      -6.2 338 -4.2 303 69.6 143 0.0 1 0.0 1
344 Southern Indiana 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -11.7      -4.7 307 -7.0 350 71.9 82 0.0 1 0.0 1
356 Lindenwood 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 21 6 - 12 -13.7      -5.9 335 -7.8 360 67.8 180 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Morehead St. 3.4 30.1 17.8 13.5 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.9 3.8 2.6 1.6 0.6
SIU Edwardsville 4.2 18.4 15.7 13.9 11.6 9.9 8.4 7.3 5.5 4.5 3.1 1.8
Tennessee St. 4.4 17.8 14.7 12.7 11.5 9.7 9.0 7.6 6.5 4.9 3.5 2.1
Arkansas Little Rock 4.7 14.5 13.6 12.8 11.6 10.6 9.3 8.2 6.8 5.8 4.2 2.6
Tennessee Martin 5.1 11.8 11.9 12.0 11.2 10.5 10.2 9.2 8.2 6.7 5.3 3.1
Tennessee Tech 5.3 10.7 10.7 10.8 11.0 10.6 10.2 9.8 8.9 7.6 6.0 3.7
Southeast Missouri St. 5.8 7.9 8.7 9.5 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.1 8.9 7.7 5.6
Western Illinois 6.1 6.4 7.9 8.8 9.8 10.2 10.9 11.0 10.1 9.9 8.5 6.5
Eastern Illinois 7.1 3.5 4.7 5.9 7.2 8.2 9.2 10.6 11.7 13.3 13.8 11.9
Southern Indiana 7.7 2.1 3.4 4.3 5.5 7.0 8.3 10.0 12.0 14.5 16.3 16.4
Lindenwood 8.5 1.0 2.0 2.9 3.9 4.9 6.6 8.7 11.0 14.0 18.5 26.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Morehead St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.0 5.7 7.5 9.5 10.9 12.3 12.3 11.2 9.5 6.8 3.6 1.3
SIU Edwardsville 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.5 6.0 8.4 9.8 10.8 11.3 11.6 10.6 8.6 6.2 3.7 1.7 0.6
Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.1 5.2 6.8 8.7 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.0 9.5 7.8 5.9 3.9 1.8 0.5
Arkansas Little Rock 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.9 5.6 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.3 11.6 10.3 9.1 7.0 4.9 2.8 1.2 0.3
Tennessee Martin 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 4.8 6.8 8.7 9.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 9.8 8.2 5.9 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.2
Tennessee Tech 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.5 7.4 9.3 10.3 11.3 11.0 10.3 9.1 6.9 5.2 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.1
Southeast Missouri St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.0 5.0 6.8 8.5 10.3 10.8 11.2 10.5 9.5 7.7 5.9 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
Western Illinois 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.3 5.5 7.4 9.3 10.5 11.4 11.2 10.3 9.2 6.9 5.2 3.5 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
Eastern Illinois 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.0 6.3 8.7 10.3 11.5 11.4 10.8 9.5 8.0 6.2 4.5 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana 7 - 11 0.8 3.0 5.5 8.2 10.6 11.9 12.1 11.4 10.0 8.1 6.5 4.8 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 6 - 12 1.9 5.2 8.8 11.4 12.4 12.7 11.7 10.0 8.3 6.2 4.5 3.1 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Morehead St. 30.1% 21.2 6.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 18.4% 12.0 4.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 17.8% 11.8 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 14.5% 9.1 4.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
Tennessee Martin 11.8% 7.3 3.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 10.7% 6.7 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 7.9% 4.7 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 6.4% 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 3.5% 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Indiana 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lindenwood 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Morehead St. 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.4 7.9 9.9 73.5 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 7.4 85.7 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.8 7.1 86.1 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 6.2 89.1 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.5 90.2 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 5.1 91.1 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.7 94.2 0.0%
Western Illinois 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 3.4 95.1 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 97.2 0.0%
Southern Indiana 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 98.5 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Morehead St. 26.5% 5.4% 23.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 14.3% 4.2% 12.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.9% 4.1% 11.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 10.9% 3.6% 8.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 9.8% 3.4% 7.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 8.9% 3.2% 7.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 5.8% 2.4% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 4.9% 2.2% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.8% 1.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 1.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 83.4% 0.8 16.6 83.4 0.0
2nd Round 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0