IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.1	#59
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.5	#167
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.5	#102

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.5	#25

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.9%	1.0%	0.1%
Top 2 Seed	2.2%	2.5%	0.3%
Top 4 Seed	6.5%	7.2%	1.7%
Top 6 Seed	12.6%	13.9%	4.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	33.7%	36.3%	16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	31.1%	33.7%	14.7%
Average Seed	7.3	7.2	8.2

.500 or above	74.3%	78.1%	49.1%
.500 or above in Conference	36.6%	38.9%	21.8%
Conference Champion	2.4%	2.6%	1.0%
Last Place in Conference	14.3%	12.9%	23.7%

First Four	3.8%	4.0%	2.7%
First Round	31.8%	34.3%	15.2%
Second Round	19.1%	20.8%	7.6%
Sweet Sixteen	8.1%	8.9%	2.6%
Elite Eight	3.6%	4.0%	1.1%
Final Four	1.5%	1.7%	0.3%
Championship Game	0.6%	0.7%	0.2%
National Champion	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 86.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 6	1 - 6
Quad 1b	2 - 3	3 - 8
Quad 2	3 - 3	6 - 11
Quad 3	4 - 1	10 - 12
Quad 4	7 - 0	17 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	168	Abilene Christian	W	77-65	87%
Nov 12, 2023	117	Sam Houston St.	W	69-60	80%
Nov 16, 2023	78	St. Bonaventure	W	67-65	58%
Nov 20, 2023	299	New Orleans	W	85-65	96%
Nov 24, 2023	360	Houston Christian	W	89-62	99%
Nov 30, 2023	8	Creighton	L	68-72	37%
Dec 05, 2023	171	@ Southern Illinois	W	66-60	70%
Dec 10, 2023	233	Tulsa	W	77-64	87%
Dec 17, 2023	175	Oral Roberts	W	81-69	85%
Dec 20, 2023	242	Wofford	W	76-60	92%
Dec 31, 2023	345	South Carolina St.	W	87-63	98%
Jan 03, 2024	324	Chicago St.	W	78-56	97%
Jan 06, 2024	14	Baylor	L	70-72	42%
Jan 09, 2024	41	@ Texas Tech	L	66-71	35%
Jan 13, 2024	40	@ Iowa St.	L	61-66	34%
Jan 16, 2024	1	Kansas	L	68-75	28%
Jan 20, 2024	32	@ Kansas St.	L	69-75	32%
Jan 23, 2024	24	TCU	L	71-72	48%
Jan 27, 2024	63	West Virginia	W	73-69	62%
Jan 30, 2024	1	@ Kansas	L	65-78	14%
Feb 03, 2024	32	Kansas St.	W	72-71	51%
Feb 06, 2024	4	@ Houston	L	59-70	19%
Feb 10, 2024	53	@ Oklahoma	L	65-68	40%
Feb 17, 2024	50	BYU	W	73-71	58%
Feb 21, 2024	58	@ Cincinnati	L	69-72	40%
Feb 24, 2024	53	Oklahoma	W	68-65	58%
Feb 28, 2024	81	Central Florida	W	68-62	68%
Mar 02, 2024	15	@ Texas	L	66-74	25%
Mar 05, 2024	41	Texas Tech	W	69-68	54%
Mar 09, 2024	50	@ BYU	L	70-74	39%
Projected Record						17 - 13	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.8	1.4	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0			3.5	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.1	1.9	1.2	0.3	0.0					4.7	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	2.5	1.6	0.2	0.0						5.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.9	3.2	2.1	0.4	0.0							6.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	3.0	2.9	0.7	0.0								7.1	6th
7th								0.2	2.3	3.7	1.0	0.1									7.2	7th
8th							0.1	1.6	4.5	2.0	0.1	0.0									8.2	8th
9th						0.0	0.8	4.1	3.2	0.4	0.0										8.6	9th
10th					0.0	0.5	3.4	4.1	0.8	0.0											8.9	10th
11th				0.0	0.4	3.0	4.4	1.5	0.1												9.4	11th
12th			0.0	0.5	2.5	4.2	2.1	0.2													9.5	12th
13th		0.1	0.8	2.5	3.8	2.0	0.4	0.0													9.6	13th
14th	0.5	1.4	2.6	2.6	1.4	0.3	0.0														8.7	14th

Total	0.5	1.4	3.5	5.6	8.2	10.0	11.2	11.7	11.3	10.0	8.6	6.6	4.8	3.2	1.9	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	99.2%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	94.5%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
15-3	68.4%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
14-4	39.1%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	12.7%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.4%	2.4		1.2	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		100.0%	32.0%	68.0%	1.3		0.0	0.0	0.0																100.0%
17-1	0.1%		100.0%	38.2%	61.8%	1.3		0.1	0.0	0.0																100.0%
16-2	0.4%		100.0%	18.2%	81.8%	1.6		0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0														100.0%
15-3	0.9%		100.0%	15.5%	84.5%	2.1		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0														100.0%
14-4	1.9%		100.0%	14.2%	85.8%	3.1		0.2	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0											100.0%
13-5	3.2%		99.3%	10.0%	89.2%	4.4		0.1	0.3	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.2%
12-6	4.8%		97.7%	6.5%	91.1%	5.8		0.0	0.0	0.4	0.7	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.1		97.5%
11-7	6.6%		92.1%	6.7%	85.4%	7.0			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.1	1.5	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0					0.5		91.5%
10-8	8.6%		77.7%	5.8%	72.0%	8.3				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	1.5	1.5	1.1	0.5	0.0					1.9		76.4%
9-9	10.0%		55.0%	4.8%	50.2%	9.3						0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.2	1.7	0.9	0.1	0.0				4.5		52.7%
8-10	11.3%		24.2%	2.7%	21.5%	10.3							0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	1.0	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0		8.6		22.1%
7-11	11.7%		7.2%	2.7%	4.5%	11.1									0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0		10.9		4.6%
6-12	11.2%		2.5%	2.0%	0.4%	12.8											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	10.9		0.4%
5-13	10.0%		1.3%	1.3%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.9
4-14	8.2%		0.9%	0.9%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.1
3-15	5.6%		0.5%	0.5%		15.6																0.0	0.0	5.6
2-16	3.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
1-17	1.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.4
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		33.7%	3.7%	30.0%	7.3		0.9	1.3	1.9	2.4	2.8	3.3	4.1	4.4	4.0	4.3	3.1	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	66.3		31.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.5	67.3	16.3	16.3