Preseason Rankings
Alabama
Southeastern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#12
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.9#4
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.8% 3.9% 1.1%
#1 Seed 13.9% 14.2% 2.5%
Top 2 Seed 26.8% 27.3% 7.7%
Top 4 Seed 47.4% 48.1% 19.4%
Top 6 Seed 62.2% 63.0% 31.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.5% 82.1% 57.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.7% 79.4% 54.5%
Average Seed 4.5 4.4 6.2
.500 or above 90.4% 90.9% 69.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.3% 79.8% 59.4%
Conference Champion 19.0% 19.2% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.5% 5.5%
First Four3.5% 3.5% 6.5%
First Round79.9% 80.5% 54.0%
Second Round63.3% 64.0% 35.9%
Sweet Sixteen37.9% 38.3% 18.4%
Elite Eight20.9% 21.2% 8.8%
Final Four11.1% 11.2% 3.9%
Championship Game5.7% 5.8% 2.2%
National Champion2.9% 2.9% 1.1%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 97.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 25 - 212 - 9
Quad 35 - 016 - 10
Quad 44 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 220   Morehead St. W 82-61 98%    
  Nov 10, 2023 122   Indiana St. W 90-75 92%    
  Nov 14, 2023 177   South Alabama W 83-65 95%    
  Nov 17, 2023 237   Mercer W 84-62 98%    
  Nov 24, 2023 38   Ohio St. W 79-75 64%    
  Nov 28, 2023 45   Clemson W 82-74 76%    
  Dec 04, 2023 198   Arkansas St. W 81-62 95%    
  Dec 09, 2023 2   Purdue L 72-75 38%    
  Dec 16, 2023 8   @ Creighton L 77-81 37%    
  Dec 20, 2023 11   Arizona L 85-86 49%    
  Dec 23, 2023 134   Eastern Kentucky W 91-75 92%    
  Dec 30, 2023 84   Liberty W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 06, 2024 87   @ Vanderbilt W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 09, 2024 89   South Carolina W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 13, 2024 37   @ Mississippi St. W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 16, 2024 52   Missouri W 86-77 76%    
  Jan 20, 2024 7   @ Tennessee L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 24, 2024 23   Auburn W 80-75 66%    
  Jan 27, 2024 56   LSU W 80-71 77%    
  Jan 31, 2024 73   @ Georgia W 80-75 65%    
  Feb 03, 2024 37   Mississippi St. W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 07, 2024 23   @ Auburn L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 10, 2024 56   @ LSU W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 17, 2024 22   Texas A&M W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 21, 2024 36   Florida W 83-76 72%    
  Feb 24, 2024 13   @ Kentucky L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 28, 2024 60   @ Mississippi W 77-74 60%    
  Mar 02, 2024 7   Tennessee W 73-71 56%    
  Mar 05, 2024 36   @ Florida W 80-79 53%    
  Mar 09, 2024 17   Arkansas W 82-78 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.8 5.5 4.6 2.6 0.8 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.8 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.4 3.7 0.9 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.7 0.9 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 3.6 1.1 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.5 1.5 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.0 0.4 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.4 7.2 8.8 10.1 11.4 11.9 11.6 9.6 7.6 4.9 2.6 0.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.3% 2.6    2.5 0.1
16-2 93.0% 4.6    3.8 0.8 0.0
15-3 71.9% 5.5    3.5 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 39.5% 3.8    1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1
13-5 13.2% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 12.3 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.6% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.9% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 1.4 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.6% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 1.7 3.7 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.6% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.2 2.6 3.7 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.6% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 3.1 1.1 2.9 3.7 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 11.9% 99.7% 13.9% 85.8% 4.1 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 11.4% 98.3% 10.3% 88.0% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.1%
10-8 10.1% 92.6% 7.8% 84.8% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 92.0%
9-9 8.8% 77.7% 6.3% 71.4% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 76.2%
8-10 7.2% 49.7% 5.0% 44.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 47.0%
7-11 5.4% 22.7% 4.3% 18.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 19.2%
6-12 3.5% 8.3% 4.0% 4.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2 4.5%
5-13 2.3% 2.5% 2.2% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.3%
4-14 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.5% 13.0% 68.5% 4.5 13.9 13.0 11.3 9.2 8.0 6.8 5.2 4.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 18.5 78.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 92.5 7.5