Preseason Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#198
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.4#344
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#217
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#186
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 12.7% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.6 12.4 13.7
.500 or above 39.4% 70.5% 37.5%
.500 or above in Conference 56.5% 76.4% 55.3%
Conference Champion 7.3% 15.7% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 2.6% 6.8%
First Four0.9% 1.1% 0.8%
First Round5.5% 12.4% 5.1%
Second Round0.8% 2.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 5.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 49 - 413 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 28   @ Wisconsin L 52-69 6%    
  Nov 11, 2023 235   @ Bowling Green L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 14, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 70-62 78%    
  Nov 17, 2023 42   @ Iowa L 65-80 9%    
  Nov 24, 2023 227   San Diego W 70-68 57%    
  Nov 28, 2023 245   Jackson St. W 69-63 70%    
  Dec 01, 2023 275   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 04, 2023 12   @ Alabama L 62-81 5%    
  Dec 09, 2023 77   UAB L 68-73 32%    
  Dec 13, 2023 124   @ Louisville L 63-70 28%    
  Dec 20, 2023 128   @ Belmont L 66-73 28%    
  Dec 30, 2023 206   @ Georgia St. L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 04, 2024 229   Georgia Southern W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 06, 2024 180   Old Dominion W 64-62 57%    
  Jan 11, 2024 193   Texas St. W 63-60 60%    
  Jan 13, 2024 176   Louisiana W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 17, 2024 152   @ Southern Miss L 64-69 32%    
  Jan 20, 2024 193   @ Texas St. L 60-63 40%    
  Jan 25, 2024 176   @ Louisiana L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 27, 2024 287   @ Louisiana Monroe W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 31, 2024 152   Southern Miss W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 03, 2024 287   Louisiana Monroe W 68-60 76%    
  Feb 07, 2024 121   James Madison L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 15, 2024 218   @ Troy L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 17, 2024 177   @ South Alabama L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 22, 2024 218   Troy W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 24, 2024 177   South Alabama W 65-63 56%    
  Feb 28, 2024 270   @ Coastal Carolina W 69-67 55%    
  Mar 01, 2024 153   @ Appalachian St. L 60-65 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 3.8 0.9 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.0 2.5 0.2 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.4 1.0 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 1.5 0.1 7.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 1.7 0.2 6.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 6.3 8.2 9.6 10.7 10.9 10.8 10.0 8.2 6.7 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-1 98.9% 0.6    0.6 0.1
16-2 90.0% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
15-3 73.3% 2.2    1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 40.6% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.7% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 4.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 65.9% 40.3% 25.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.9%
17-1 0.7% 47.7% 38.8% 8.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14.5%
16-2 1.5% 32.1% 29.6% 2.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.5%
15-3 3.0% 24.4% 23.9% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.7%
14-4 4.5% 16.5% 16.4% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.1%
13-5 6.7% 14.0% 14.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.8
12-6 8.2% 8.9% 8.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 7.5
11-7 10.0% 5.7% 5.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.5
10-8 10.8% 4.6% 4.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.3
9-9 10.9% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.5
8-10 10.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.5
7-11 9.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.5
6-12 8.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 8.2
5-13 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-14 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
3-15 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.0 94.2 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%