Preseason Rankings
Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#70
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#218
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 3.1% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 5.0% 5.7% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.5% 36.5% 22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.9% 8.9% 2.9%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 11.8
.500 or above 95.9% 97.2% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 95.2% 88.3%
Conference Champion 41.0% 43.3% 27.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four2.3% 2.4% 1.4%
First Round33.4% 35.3% 22.0%
Second Round13.6% 14.7% 6.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.3% 5.9% 2.0%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.1% 0.6%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 39 - 6
Quad 412 - 121 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 184   Lipscomb W 78-67 85%    
  Nov 19, 2023 256   Oakland W 78-65 88%    
  Nov 25, 2023 222   Texas Southern W 77-63 89%    
  Nov 29, 2023 310   @ Valparaiso W 75-62 87%    
  Dec 02, 2023 143   Missouri St. W 68-59 78%    
  Dec 06, 2023 102   Saint Louis W 75-69 71%    
  Dec 09, 2023 79   Nevada W 68-67 53%    
  Dec 14, 2023 253   Grambling St. W 73-58 91%    
  Dec 19, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 78-61 93%    
  Dec 22, 2023 77   @ UAB L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 02, 2024 209   Illinois St. W 74-61 86%    
  Jan 07, 2024 128   @ Belmont W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 10, 2024 122   Indiana St. W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 13, 2024 171   @ Southern Illinois W 66-61 65%    
  Jan 17, 2024 209   @ Illinois St. W 71-64 71%    
  Jan 20, 2024 329   Evansville W 80-60 95%    
  Jan 24, 2024 143   @ Missouri St. W 65-62 59%    
  Jan 27, 2024 123   Northern Iowa W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 31, 2024 310   Valparaiso W 78-59 94%    
  Feb 03, 2024 122   @ Indiana St. W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 07, 2024 171   Southern Illinois W 69-58 81%    
  Feb 10, 2024 100   @ Bradley L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 13, 2024 329   @ Evansville W 77-63 88%    
  Feb 18, 2024 154   Murray St. W 75-65 78%    
  Feb 21, 2024 128   Belmont W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 24, 2024 123   @ Northern Iowa W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 28, 2024 244   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-66 78%    
  Mar 03, 2024 100   Bradley W 69-63 69%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.5 7.6 10.2 9.7 6.4 2.7 41.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.3 6.7 5.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.5 7.1 9.6 11.3 12.6 13.2 12.2 10.0 6.4 2.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
19-1 100.0% 6.4    6.3 0.1
18-2 96.2% 9.7    8.6 1.0 0.0
17-3 83.5% 10.2    7.5 2.5 0.1
16-4 57.7% 7.6    4.2 2.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 27.6% 3.5    1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.0% 41.0 30.8 8.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.7% 95.5% 67.9% 27.6% 4.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 85.9%
19-1 6.4% 86.1% 57.4% 28.7% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.9 67.4%
18-2 10.0% 67.7% 50.2% 17.5% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.2 35.1%
17-3 12.2% 50.5% 42.5% 8.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 6.0 14.0%
16-4 13.2% 35.2% 33.2% 2.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.5 3.0%
15-5 12.6% 26.1% 25.8% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.3 0.4%
14-6 11.3% 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 9.0 0.0%
13-7 9.6% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.1 0.0%
12-8 7.1% 11.0% 11.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.3
11-9 5.5% 8.1% 8.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.1
10-10 3.6% 5.7% 5.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.4
9-11 2.4% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
8-12 1.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
7-13 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 34.5% 28.8% 5.6% 10.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.5 2.9 8.1 8.7 4.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 65.5 7.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 99.6% 2.9 19.8 23.3 23.3 20.3 8.1 3.6 0.8 0.4