Preseason Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#122
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.7#36
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#167
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 21.6% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 4.7% 0.7%
Average Seed 12.3 11.0 12.6
.500 or above 77.3% 94.9% 75.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.4% 88.9% 74.3%
Conference Champion 12.2% 22.4% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four0.8% 2.0% 0.7%
First Round10.9% 20.7% 10.1%
Second Round2.5% 6.5% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 2.3% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 7.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 46 - 10
Quad 411 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 12   @ Alabama L 75-90 8%    
  Nov 14, 2023 347   IUPUI W 83-65 95%    
  Nov 21, 2023 178   Rice W 82-79 61%    
  Nov 22, 2023 191   Pepperdine W 85-81 63%    
  Nov 24, 2023 132   Toledo W 83-82 52%    
  Nov 28, 2023 171   Southern Illinois W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 02, 2023 100   @ Bradley L 69-74 34%    
  Dec 05, 2023 240   @ Northern Illinois W 79-75 63%    
  Dec 09, 2023 344   Southern Indiana W 87-70 93%    
  Dec 16, 2023 234   Ball St. W 80-73 71%    
  Dec 19, 2023 262   Tennessee St. W 86-75 83%    
  Dec 30, 2023 5   @ Michigan St. L 64-81 7%    
  Jan 03, 2024 329   Evansville W 84-69 91%    
  Jan 07, 2024 123   @ Northern Iowa L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 10, 2024 70   @ Drake L 70-78 25%    
  Jan 13, 2024 128   Belmont W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 16, 2024 143   Missouri St. W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 21, 2024 154   @ Murray St. L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 24, 2024 244   @ Illinois-Chicago W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 27, 2024 100   Bradley W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 31, 2024 128   @ Belmont L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 03, 2024 70   Drake L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 07, 2024 310   Valparaiso W 81-67 88%    
  Feb 10, 2024 143   @ Missouri St. L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 13, 2024 209   Illinois St. W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 17, 2024 171   @ Southern Illinois L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 21, 2024 310   @ Valparaiso W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 24, 2024 244   Illinois-Chicago W 82-72 79%    
  Feb 28, 2024 329   @ Evansville W 81-72 78%    
  Mar 03, 2024 154   Murray St. W 78-73 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 3.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 4.7 2.8 0.8 0.2 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 4.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 3.9 1.1 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.6 0.9 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.0 7.9 9.4 10.8 11.5 11.3 10.0 8.5 6.4 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 93.3% 2.2    1.9 0.3 0.0
17-3 79.0% 3.2    2.2 0.9 0.1
16-4 49.5% 3.2    1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 21.4% 1.8    0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 7.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 86.1% 63.6% 22.5% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.9%
19-1 1.0% 71.0% 46.2% 24.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 46.1%
18-2 2.3% 49.1% 37.6% 11.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 18.4%
17-3 4.0% 33.9% 29.6% 4.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.7 6.1%
16-4 6.4% 25.7% 24.2% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 2.0%
15-5 8.5% 18.6% 18.3% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.9 0.3%
14-6 10.0% 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.0%
13-7 11.3% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.2 0.0%
12-8 11.5% 7.4% 7.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.6
11-9 10.8% 5.6% 5.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.2
10-10 9.4% 4.0% 4.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.0
9-11 7.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.7
8-12 6.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.9
7-13 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.5
6-14 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.2% 10.4% 0.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.1 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.5 88.8 1.0%