Preseason Rankings
Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#251
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.6#64
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#209
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#298
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 9.4% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 40.0% 64.0% 34.2%
.500 or above in Conference 48.0% 63.3% 44.2%
Conference Champion 6.5% 12.0% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 4.8% 10.0%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.1%
First Round4.9% 9.2% 3.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Home) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 63 - 9
Quad 410 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2023 71   Colorado St. L 71-80 20%    
  Nov 18, 2023 167   @ New Mexico St. L 73-81 23%    
  Nov 20, 2023 324   Chicago St. W 75-70 66%    
  Nov 29, 2023 227   @ San Diego L 76-80 35%    
  Dec 02, 2023 316   Cal St. Northridge W 75-68 73%    
  Dec 11, 2023 291   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 15, 2023 33   @ Colorado L 66-86 5%    
  Dec 21, 2023 166   @ Air Force L 65-73 24%    
  Dec 30, 2023 231   Northern Arizona W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 03, 2024 267   @ North Dakota L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 06, 2024 307   Denver W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 11, 2024 181   @ Montana L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 13, 2024 225   @ Montana St. L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 18, 2024 252   Sacramento St. W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 20, 2024 211   Portland St. W 82-81 52%    
  Jan 25, 2024 169   @ Eastern Washington L 74-82 25%    
  Jan 27, 2024 354   @ Idaho W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 01, 2024 290   Idaho St. W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 03, 2024 160   Weber St. L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 08, 2024 225   Montana St. W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 10, 2024 181   Montana L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 15, 2024 211   @ Portland St. L 78-84 32%    
  Feb 17, 2024 252   @ Sacramento St. L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 22, 2024 354   Idaho W 79-68 82%    
  Feb 24, 2024 169   Eastern Washington L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 29, 2024 160   @ Weber St. L 67-75 25%    
  Mar 02, 2024 290   @ Idaho St. L 71-72 47%    
  Mar 04, 2024 231   @ Northern Arizona L 74-78 37%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.7 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.4 3.1 0.7 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.3 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.4 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 10th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.7 5.6 7.8 9.7 10.8 11.4 11.2 10.1 8.4 6.7 4.9 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 98.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 79.6% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 54.5% 1.8    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.9% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 54.8% 54.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 55.4% 55.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.0% 41.4% 41.0% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.7%
15-3 2.0% 30.7% 30.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.2% 22.3% 22.3% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.5
13-5 4.9% 16.3% 16.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 4.1
12-6 6.7% 11.3% 11.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 5.9
11-7 8.4% 7.0% 7.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 7.8
10-8 10.1% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.6
9-9 11.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.9
8-10 11.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.2
7-11 10.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 9.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.6
5-13 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 5.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.6
3-15 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%