IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.0	#171
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.0	#327
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.0	#271

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.0	#90

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.7%	6.7%	3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.0	12.9	13.7

.500 or above	56.0%	63.6%	36.4%
.500 or above in Conference	54.3%	59.4%	41.0%
Conference Champion	5.4%	6.5%	2.7%
Last Place in Conference	4.1%	3.0%	6.9%

First Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.5%
First Round	5.4%	6.5%	2.8%
Second Round	0.9%	1.2%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 6	6 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 3	15 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2023	224	Queens	W	72-66	72%
Nov 16, 2023	324	Chicago St.	W	70-57	87%
Nov 21, 2023	121	James Madison	L	67-70	40%
Nov 28, 2023	122	@ Indiana St.	L	66-72	31%
Dec 02, 2023	102	Saint Louis	L	67-68	46%
Dec 05, 2023	59	Oklahoma St.	L	60-66	30%
Dec 12, 2023	236	Austin Peay	W	66-59	73%
Dec 16, 2023	95	@ Wichita St.	L	59-67	25%
Dec 19, 2023	201	North Dakota St.	W	68-63	66%
Dec 22, 2023	344	Southern Indiana	W	75-60	90%
Dec 30, 2023	244	Illinois-Chicago	W	70-62	74%
Jan 02, 2024	128	Belmont	W	68-67	52%
Jan 06, 2024	209	@ Illinois St.	L	62-63	47%
Jan 10, 2024	310	@ Valparaiso	W	66-61	67%
Jan 13, 2024	70	Drake	L	61-66	35%
Jan 17, 2024	100	Bradley	L	61-63	46%
Jan 20, 2024	123	@ Northern Iowa	L	62-68	33%
Jan 24, 2024	310	Valparaiso	W	69-58	82%
Jan 27, 2024	154	@ Murray St.	L	63-67	37%
Jan 31, 2024	143	Missouri St.	W	60-59	55%
Feb 03, 2024	244	@ Illinois-Chicago	W	67-65	55%
Feb 07, 2024	70	@ Drake	L	58-69	19%
Feb 10, 2024	209	Illinois St.	W	65-60	66%
Feb 14, 2024	128	@ Belmont	L	65-70	33%
Feb 17, 2024	122	Indiana St.	W	69-68	51%
Feb 21, 2024	154	Murray St.	W	66-64	57%
Feb 25, 2024	329	@ Evansville	W	69-62	71%
Feb 28, 2024	100	@ Bradley	L	58-66	27%
Mar 03, 2024	123	Northern Iowa	W	66-65	52%
Projected Record						15 - 14	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.5	1.3	0.7	0.3	0.1		5.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.9	2.3	2.6	1.3	0.3	0.0				7.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	1.4	3.1	2.6	1.0	0.1	0.0					8.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.7	3.7	2.8	0.7	0.1							9.3	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.7	4.4	3.3	0.7	0.0								10.4	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.9	4.3	3.4	0.7	0.0									10.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.1	4.5	3.3	0.8	0.0										11.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	2.2	4.5	3.1	0.7	0.0											11.0	8th
9th					0.1	0.7	2.5	3.8	2.5	0.7	0.0												10.2	9th
10th				0.2	0.9	2.5	2.8	1.6	0.3	0.0													8.3	10th
11th		0.0	0.3	0.9	1.7	1.6	0.7	0.1	0.0														5.4	11th
12th	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0																2.2	12th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.8	3.1	4.9	6.5	8.1	9.6	10.5	10.4	10.5	9.3	7.7	6.0	4.7	2.9	1.6	0.8	0.3	0.1			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
18-2	95.9%	0.7		0.6	0.1
17-3	80.4%	1.3		0.9	0.3	0.0
16-4	52.2%	1.5		0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0
15-5	22.8%	1.1		0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
14-6	6.5%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	5.4%	5.4		3.1	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		93.7%	66.2%	27.5%	6.4				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0				0.0		81.3%
19-1	0.3%		68.3%	39.3%	28.9%	9.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0					0.1		47.7%
18-2	0.8%		44.4%	32.4%	12.0%	10.8							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.4		17.8%
17-3	1.6%		33.1%	29.1%	4.0%	11.6										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0			1.1		5.6%
16-4	2.9%		20.6%	20.0%	0.6%	12.1										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		2.3		0.7%
15-5	4.7%		14.6%	14.5%	0.1%	12.6												0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0		4.0		0.2%
14-6	6.0%		12.1%	12.1%	0.0%	13.0												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	5.3		0.0%
13-7	7.7%		8.4%	8.4%		13.6												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1		7.0
12-8	9.3%		6.9%	6.9%		13.7													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	8.7
11-9	10.5%		3.4%	3.4%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	10.1
10-10	10.4%		2.9%	2.9%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	10.1
9-11	10.5%		2.1%	2.1%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.3
8-12	9.6%		1.9%	1.9%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	9.4
7-13	8.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	8.0
6-14	6.5%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	6.4
5-15	4.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
4-16	3.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.1
3-17	1.8%																							1.8
2-18	0.9%																							0.9
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		5.7%	5.4%	0.3%	13.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.3	0.9	0.6	0.6	94.3		0.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.1				25.0	46.9	25.0			3.1