Preseason Rankings
St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#78
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#272
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.1% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 3.6% 4.0% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 23.3% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.5% 9.5% 1.9%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 11.4
.500 or above 89.1% 91.5% 72.2%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 84.2% 68.8%
Conference Champion 21.5% 22.9% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.0% 3.6%
First Four2.7% 3.0% 0.8%
First Round20.4% 21.9% 10.2%
Second Round9.1% 9.9% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 3.7% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.4% 0.5%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 37 - 310 - 8
Quad 410 - 120 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 213   Longwood W 72-60 87%    
  Nov 11, 2023 269   Canisius W 76-60 93%    
  Nov 16, 2023 59   Oklahoma St. L 65-67 42%    
  Nov 22, 2023 331   Bucknell W 77-57 96%    
  Nov 25, 2023 260   Miami (OH) W 76-61 91%    
  Dec 02, 2023 216   @ Buffalo W 77-71 72%    
  Dec 06, 2023 258   @ Niagara W 67-58 79%    
  Dec 09, 2023 266   Siena W 75-59 91%    
  Dec 16, 2023 25   Florida Atlantic L 67-73 30%    
  Dec 22, 2023 297   Binghamton W 75-58 93%    
  Dec 30, 2023 114   Akron W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 03, 2024 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 06, 2024 129   @ Richmond W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 13, 2024 162   Fordham W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 17, 2024 190   Rhode Island W 72-61 81%    
  Jan 20, 2024 139   @ George Mason W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 23, 2024 94   @ Duquesne L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 26, 2024 136   Saint Joseph's W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 30, 2024 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 02, 2024 72   @ Dayton L 60-64 39%    
  Feb 07, 2024 192   Massachusetts W 77-66 82%    
  Feb 10, 2024 94   Duquesne W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 14, 2024 162   @ Fordham W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 17, 2024 149   Davidson W 70-61 76%    
  Feb 21, 2024 199   @ La Salle W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 24, 2024 192   @ Massachusetts W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 27, 2024 96   Loyola Chicago W 69-64 65%    
  Mar 06, 2024 238   @ George Washington W 76-68 74%    
  Mar 09, 2024 102   Saint Louis W 74-68 68%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.6 6.0 5.1 3.1 1.0 21.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.9 5.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.9 4.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.0 1.0 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.4 2.7 4.0 1.1 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.1 0.2 5.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 2.5 0.4 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.7 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.4 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.4 6.5 7.9 9.8 11.3 12.4 11.7 11.0 8.4 5.7 3.1 1.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 98.6% 3.1    2.9 0.1 0.0
16-2 89.8% 5.1    4.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 71.7% 6.0    3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 41.7% 4.6    1.7 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.9% 1.5    0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 13.9 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 96.5% 53.4% 43.1% 3.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.6%
17-1 3.1% 87.4% 43.0% 44.4% 6.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 77.9%
16-2 5.7% 73.4% 35.6% 37.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 58.6%
15-3 8.4% 49.2% 26.1% 23.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 31.3%
14-4 11.0% 31.1% 21.9% 9.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.6 11.8%
13-5 11.7% 18.3% 15.8% 2.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 9.6 2.9%
12-6 12.4% 12.4% 11.8% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.7%
11-7 11.3% 10.0% 9.9% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.1 0.2%
10-8 9.8% 6.6% 6.6% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.1
9-9 7.9% 4.6% 4.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
8-10 6.5% 3.9% 3.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3
7-11 4.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 3.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.1
5-13 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.6% 14.4% 7.3% 9.9 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 2.5 5.3 4.1 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 78.4 8.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 99.8% 2.2 32.4 26.4 30.4 7.2 1.8 1.6