Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#253
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#249
Pace72.9#73
Improvement+2.2#82

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#271
First Shot-3.4#279
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#204
Layup/Dunks-1.1#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#258
Freethrows-1.6#284
Improvement+0.5#145

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#233
First Shot-1.1#211
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#252
Layups/Dunks-2.5#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#156
Freethrows-0.9#251
Improvement+1.7#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.2 15.8
.500 or above 3.1% 10.3% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 25.8% 54.1% 21.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 33 - 73 - 14
Quad 49 - 612 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 284   Bowling Green W 77-68 66%     1 - 0 -0.6 -4.8 +3.7
  Nov 07, 2024 98   @ UAB L 84-98 12%     1 - 1 -6.7 +0.6 -5.6
  Nov 20, 2024 115   @ South Dakota St. L 76-101 15%     1 - 2 -19.5 -8.4 -6.8
  Nov 24, 2024 177   @ Montana St. L 59-79 24%     1 - 3 -18.1 -14.7 -2.6
  Nov 25, 2024 242   Abilene Christian L 74-82 46%     1 - 4 -12.4 +6.6 -19.4
  Nov 30, 2024 162   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-65 38%     2 - 4 -1.4 -1.6 +0.3
  Dec 05, 2024 300   Alabama St. W 81-64 68%     3 - 4 +6.6 -2.6 +8.3
  Dec 10, 2024 146   @ Tulane L 58-86 19%     3 - 5 -24.2 -13.4 -10.7
  Dec 14, 2024 20   Mississippi L 46-77 4%     3 - 6 -15.4 -14.0 -4.4
  Dec 17, 2024 222   Lamar L 65-69 52%     3 - 7 -10.0 -7.7 -2.4
  Dec 21, 2024 181   Marshall W 68-66 43%     4 - 7 1 - 0 -1.5 +7.8 -8.9
  Jan 02, 2025 149   @ James Madison L 72-83 20%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -7.4 +3.7 -11.5
  Jan 04, 2025 287   @ Old Dominion L 71-74 47%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -7.6 -1.7 -5.9
  Jan 09, 2025 346   Louisiana Monroe W 84-67 81%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +2.4 -4.3 +4.7
  Jan 11, 2025 167   Texas St. W 92-88 OT 40%     6 - 9 3 - 2 +1.1 -0.1 +0.6
  Jan 15, 2025 122   @ South Alabama L 62-75 16%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -8.0 -7.5 -0.4
  Jan 18, 2025 167   @ Texas St. L 82-85 OT 23%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -0.6 -0.8 +0.5
  Jan 23, 2025 117   @ Troy L 66-77 15%    
  Jan 25, 2025 306   @ Louisiana W 74-73 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 97   Arkansas St. L 71-79 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 272   Georgia Southern W 78-75 64%    
  Feb 05, 2025 121   @ Appalachian St. L 61-72 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 247   @ Ball St. L 73-76 37%    
  Feb 12, 2025 97   @ Arkansas St. L 69-82 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 346   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 20, 2025 293   Coastal Carolina W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 306   Louisiana W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 26, 2025 122   South Alabama L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 28, 2025 117   Troy L 69-75 31%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.1 2.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.9 0.5 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 5.8 2.1 0.2 10.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 9.0 6.1 0.7 17.5 8th
9th 0.7 7.5 9.1 1.2 0.0 18.5 9th
10th 0.2 4.8 9.2 2.2 0.0 16.4 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 7.7 3.4 0.2 13.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 5.5 3.6 0.3 10.7 12th
13th 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.2 3.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
Total 0.4 2.5 9.6 17.1 22.1 22.5 15.1 7.2 2.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 10.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 2.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
10-8 7.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 7.1
9-9 15.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.0
8-10 22.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 22.3
7-11 22.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.0
6-12 17.1% 17.1
5-13 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
4-14 2.5% 2.5
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%