Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#108
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#121
Pace76.2#27
Improvement+2.7#65

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#133
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#162
Layup/Dunks+0.0#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#41
Freethrows-2.7#321
Improvement+0.2#162

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#129
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#227
Layups/Dunks-1.3#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#66
Freethrows+0.7#129
Improvement+2.5#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.7% 33.9% 26.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 65.9% 78.1% 36.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round31.7% 33.9% 26.4%
Second Round3.0% 3.3% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 70.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 45 - 8
Quad 417 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 97   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 34%     0 - 1 +2.4 -6.2 +9.4
  Nov 12, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 13%     0 - 2 -3.7 +2.5 -6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 222   Lamar W 79-72 81%     1 - 2 +1.0 -0.6 +1.1
  Nov 23, 2024 219   Nebraska Omaha W 92-84 81%     2 - 2 +2.1 +20.3 -17.8
  Nov 24, 2024 300   Alabama St. W 97-78 89%     3 - 2 +8.6 +13.1 -5.4
  Dec 03, 2024 234   Northern Kentucky W 86-73 83%     4 - 2 +6.2 +15.9 -9.2
  Dec 15, 2024 162   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-100 61%     4 - 3 -18.8 -5.8 -9.7
  Dec 20, 2024 89   Yale L 58-74 37%     4 - 4 -9.5 -14.0 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 282   Jackson St. W 68-50 83%     5 - 4 +11.1 -7.1 +17.7
  Dec 30, 2024 125   @ Princeton L 75-76 43%     5 - 5 +3.9 -0.5 +4.5
  Jan 03, 2025 284   @ Bowling Green W 71-68 77%     6 - 5 1 - 0 -1.4 -7.3 +5.8
  Jan 07, 2025 230   Central Michigan W 87-71 82%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +9.4 +17.2 -7.0
  Jan 11, 2025 304   @ Eastern Michigan W 105-81 79%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +18.7 +19.6 -2.9
  Jan 14, 2025 211   Toledo W 85-78 79%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +1.8 +3.0 -1.4
  Jan 17, 2025 160   Ohio W 92-80 70%     10 - 5 5 - 0 +9.8 +9.9 -1.0
  Jan 21, 2025 332   @ Buffalo W 90-58 87%     11 - 5 6 - 0 +23.2 +5.8 +14.4
  Jan 25, 2025 154   Miami (OH) W 80-75 70%    
  Jan 28, 2025 354   @ Northern Illinois W 84-70 90%    
  Jan 31, 2025 141   @ Kent St. L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 04, 2025 247   Ball St. W 82-72 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 122   South Alabama W 72-69 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 309   Western Michigan W 85-71 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 230   @ Central Michigan W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 354   Northern Illinois W 86-67 96%    
  Feb 22, 2025 160   @ Ohio W 82-81 49%    
  Feb 25, 2025 247   @ Ball St. W 80-75 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 141   Kent St. W 73-69 67%    
  Mar 04, 2025 211   @ Toledo W 84-81 59%    
  Mar 07, 2025 332   Buffalo W 87-70 95%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.1 9.8 19.9 19.3 11.5 3.1 65.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 7.9 8.9 5.0 1.1 0.0 24.8 2nd
3rd 0.7 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.0 12.2 19.2 24.9 20.4 11.6 3.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
17-1 99.7% 11.5    11.2 0.4
16-2 94.6% 19.3    16.7 2.5
15-3 79.8% 19.9    13.9 5.8 0.2
14-4 51.1% 9.8    4.3 4.6 0.9 0.0
13-5 17.3% 2.1    0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 65.9% 65.9 49.5 14.1 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.1% 53.1% 53.1% 12.2 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.5
17-1 11.6% 44.0% 44.0% 12.8 0.0 1.6 2.5 0.9 6.5
16-2 20.4% 38.2% 38.2% 13.2 0.0 1.2 4.2 2.3 0.2 12.6
15-3 24.9% 31.5% 31.5% 13.6 0.4 3.0 4.0 0.5 0.0 17.1
14-4 19.2% 28.1% 28.1% 13.9 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.0 0.0 13.8
13-5 12.2% 21.5% 21.5% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.1 9.6
12-6 6.0% 16.1% 16.1% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 5.0
11-7 2.1% 13.9% 13.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
10-8 0.5% 5.9% 5.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.7% 31.7% 0.0% 13.4 0.3 4.2 11.7 12.2 3.1 0.1 68.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 11.9 22.7 63.9 12.6 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%