Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.9 #322
Expected Predictive Rating -11.6 #337
Pace 72.4 #84
Improvement -5.8 #355

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #312 D D+ C- C- C-
Defense #303 D F+ B- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #197 1.07 #290 -2.1 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #98 0.67 #305 +0.4 #156
Three Pointers 38% #247 0.97 #240 -2.4 #271
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #306 -4.1 #306
Freethrows 0.29 #243 70% #258 0.20 #244
Second Chance 29.9% #205 0.85 #353 0.26 #298
Turnovers 17.9% #258
Total Offense -5.5 #312

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #154 1.27 #315 -2.9 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #333 0.73 #120 +2.3 #29
Three Pointers 45% #64 1.11 #310 -4.3 #336
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #324 -4.9 #326
Freethrows 0.36 #326 75% #326 0.27 #339
Second Chance 36.1% #346 1.12 #301 0.40 #347
Turnovers 18.3% #85
Total Defense -4.4 #303

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #257 1.6% #315
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.1% #302 7.9% #319
Possession Length 16.8 #124 16.5 #60
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #94 0.26 #361
Improvement -6.6 #363 +0.8 #139

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.7% 33.3% 9.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.3% 3.2% 1.0%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 9
Quad 49 - 1210 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 101 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 6% -20  0 - 1 -29 -12 F C+ D -13 C F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 119 @UAB W 77 - 74 8% +4  1 - 1 +9 +2 C D B- +6 B+ C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 83 @Colorado L 66 - 94 4% -19  1 - 2 -18 -5 F+ D+ C+ -13 D- D- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 350 @Air Force L 64 - 66 47% +2  1 - 3 -11 -7 F+ F D+ -4 D- F A
 Fri, Nov 21 341 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 56% +9  2 - 3 +9 +8 B+ F+ B- -1 F A A+
 Sun, Nov 23 252 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 33% -2  2 - 4 -20 -0 F+ D+ B -21 F F+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 45 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 2% +6  2 - 5 +9 +19 A+ A+ F+ -10 F B- C+
 Sun, Dec 7 202 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 17% +0  2 - 6 -10 -2 B+ F D+ -8 B- F D+
 Thu, Dec 11 54 @Missouri L 77 - 85 3% -11  2 - 7 +5 +19 A- A+ A+ -15 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 53 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 3% -21  2 - 8 -24 -10 F+ F A- -14 F+ C F
 Mon, Dec 22 91 @Memphis L 67 - 88 5% -13  2 - 9 -12 -0 D B D+ -11 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 72 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 4% -18  2 - 10 -27 -10 F F D- -17 F+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 84% +9  3 - 10 1 - 0 -1 +6 C+ F F -7 F+ C B+
 Mon, Jan 5 331 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 41% -6  3 - 11 1 - 1 -19 -3 D F C+ -15 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 337 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 66% -7  3 - 12 1 - 2 -25 -20 F C F -4 B- D+ C
 Mon, Jan 12 349 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 69% +6  4 - 12 2 - 2 +0 -1 C- D+ F+ +0 A+ F C-
 Mon, Jan 19 293 Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 41% -0  4 - 13 2 - 3 -12 -8 D+ A+ F -3 C+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 340 @Prairie View W 95 - 80 44% +12  5 - 13 3 - 3 +7 +3 B+ D- B +1 C+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 27 309 @Texas Southern L 64 - 96 35% -16  5 - 14 3 - 4 -38 -15 F D C+ -22 F D- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 235 Bethune-Cookman L 54 - 69 39% -1  5 - 15 3 - 5 -22 -20 F F F -2 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 2 317 Florida A&M W 75 - 72 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 287 @Grambling St. L 70 - 76 29%
 Mon, Feb 9 267 @Southern L 73 - 80 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82 - 78 63%
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 63 94%
 Thu, Feb 19 317 @Florida A&M L 72 - 75 38%
 Thu, Feb 19 235 @Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 80 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 293 @Alabama A&M L 70 - 75 32%
 Tue, Mar 3 267 Southern L 76 - 77 47%
 Thu, Mar 5 287 Grambling St. W 73 - 72 52%
Totals 10 - 20 7 - 10 -10 -5 D D+ C- -4 D F+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 0.7 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.0 0.2 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 4.5 1.3 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 6.1 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.2 6.3 2.5 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.4 9.7 0.3 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 9.3 4.9 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 7.5 10.1 0.7 19.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.9 7.5 9.4 2.6 0.0 21.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.2 2.0 8.5 18.1 24.6 23.0 14.7 6.6 2.0 0.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 36.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 2.0% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.7
10-8 6.6% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.7 5.9
9-9 14.7% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 1.1 13.6
8-10 23.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 22.8
7-11 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.6
6-12 18.1% 18.1
5-13 8.5% 8.5
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%