Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#292
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.9#151
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#296
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#274
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 13.6% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.2 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 31.0% 59.9% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 87.8% 71.5%
Conference Champion 9.1% 16.9% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four4.1% 3.9% 4.1%
First Round7.2% 12.8% 6.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 5.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 31 - 11
Quad 412 - 714 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 78   @ Florida St. L 64-81 5%    
  Nov 11, 2025 102   @ UAB L 67-82 8%    
  Nov 17, 2025 82   @ Colorado L 61-78 7%    
  Nov 19, 2025 280   @ Air Force L 64-68 37%    
  Nov 21, 2025 359   IU Indianapolis W 73-66 74%    
  Nov 23, 2025 240   SIU Edwardsville L 66-69 40%    
  Nov 26, 2025 79   @ New Mexico L 67-84 6%    
  Dec 07, 2025 323   @ Tennessee Martin L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 11, 2025 37   @ Missouri L 62-86 2%    
  Dec 17, 2025 45   @ Cincinnati L 56-78 3%    
  Dec 22, 2025 53   @ Memphis L 64-85 4%    
  Dec 29, 2025 33   @ Mississippi St. L 60-84 2%    
  Jan 03, 2026 365   @ Mississippi Valley W 73-58 89%    
  Jan 05, 2026 364   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-70 86%    
  Jan 10, 2026 238   Jackson St. W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 12, 2026 326   Alcorn St. W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 17, 2026 325   Alabama A&M W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 24, 2026 341   @ Prairie View W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 26, 2026 285   @ Texas Southern L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 31, 2026 246   Bethune-Cookman W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 02, 2026 332   Florida A&M W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 07, 2026 283   @ Grambling St. L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 09, 2026 186   @ Southern L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 14, 2026 364   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-67 93%    
  Feb 16, 2026 365   Mississippi Valley W 76-55 96%    
  Feb 19, 2026 332   @ Florida A&M L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 19, 2026 246   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-75 32%    
  Feb 28, 2026 325   @ Alabama A&M L 74-75 48%    
  Mar 03, 2026 186   Southern L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 05, 2026 283   Grambling St. W 67-64 58%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 2.7 1.7 0.5 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 2.1 0.2 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.5 10.0 11.9 13.3 13.2 11.4 10.0 6.5 3.7 1.8 0.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 99.1% 0.5    0.4 0.0
16-2 93.2% 1.7    1.4 0.2 0.0
15-3 72.1% 2.7    1.7 0.9 0.1
14-4 40.2% 2.6    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.0% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.0 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 44.4% 44.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.8% 35.2% 35.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.2
15-3 3.7% 31.1% 31.1% 16.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 2.6
14-4 6.5% 20.9% 20.9% 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 5.1
13-5 10.0% 15.1% 15.1% 18.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 8.5
12-6 11.4% 10.2% 10.2% 18.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 10.3
11-7 13.2% 7.6% 7.6% 17.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 12.2
10-8 13.3% 5.3% 5.3% 16.4 0.0 0.7 12.6
9-9 11.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.2 0.0 0.4 11.6
8-10 10.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.9
7-11 7.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.4
6-12 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.0
5-13 2.9% 2.9
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 17.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 5.9 91.8 0.0%