Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#266
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#282
Pace68.9#198
Improvement+1.5#79

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#196
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#299
Layup/Dunks-0.2#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#113
Freethrows-1.5#280
Improvement+3.0#20

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#323
First Shot-3.5#296
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#276
Layups/Dunks+1.0#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#340
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement-1.5#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 18.6% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 31.0% 56.9% 29.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 90.4% 80.9%
Conference Champion 14.4% 21.0% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four8.7% 8.1% 8.8%
First Round9.2% 14.5% 8.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 6.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 31 - 32 - 9
Quad 412 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 119 @Florida St. L 64-101 14%     0 - 1 -31.0 -12.8 -14.3
  Tue, Nov 11 118 @UAB W 77-74 14%     1 - 1 +9.1 +1.7 +7.3
  Mon, Nov 17 63 @Colorado L 66-94 6%     1 - 2 -16.2 -4.6 -11.2
  Wed, Nov 19 322 @Air Force L 64-66 54%     1 - 3 -8.6 -6.5 -2.2
  Fri, Nov 21 355 IU Indianapolis W 101-80 79%     2 - 3 +7.0 +7.0 -2.7
  Sun, Nov 23 234 SIU Edwardsville L 68-83 44%     2 - 4 -19.0 -0.9 -18.9
  Wed, Nov 26 72 @New Mexico L 87-93 7%     2 - 5 +4.9 +16.8 -11.7
  Sun, Dec 7 251 @Tennessee Martin L 64-74 37%     2 - 6 -12.2 -4.2 -8.6
  Thu, Dec 11 48 @Missouri L 77-85 4%     2 - 7 +6.1 +18.1 -13.0
  Wed, Dec 17 78 @Cincinnati L 65-81 7%    
  Mon, Dec 22 76 @Memphis L 68-84 6%    
  Mon, Dec 29 84 @Mississippi St. L 69-84 8%    
  Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 81-67 91%    
  Mon, Jan 5 351 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-77 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 315 Jackson St. W 76-70 73%    
  Mon, Jan 12 331 Alcorn St. W 80-72 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 279 Alabama A&M W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 325 @Prairie View W 78-77 54%    
  Mon, Jan 26 318 @Texas Southern W 77-76 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 227 Bethune-Cookman W 75-74 54%    
  Mon, Feb 2 344 Florida A&M W 80-71 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 282 @Grambling St. L 70-72 43%    
  Mon, Feb 9 203 @Southern L 76-82 30%    
  Sat, Feb 14 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-74 82%    
  Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 84-64 97%    
  Thu, Feb 19 344 @Florida A&M W 77-74 60%    
  Thu, Feb 19 227 @Bethune-Cookman L 72-77 33%    
  Sat, Feb 28 279 @Alabama A&M L 70-72 42%    
  Tue, Mar 3 203 Southern W 79-78 50%    
  Thu, Mar 5 282 Grambling St. W 73-69 64%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.3 0.2 14.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.0 6.2 2.7 0.6 0.1 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.1 6.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.0 6.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.8 1.6 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.9 2.0 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.5 2.3 0.3 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.3 8.5 11.8 14.5 15.7 14.9 11.6 7.5 4.1 1.4 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 96.1% 1.3    1.2 0.1
15-3 85.0% 3.5    2.8 0.7 0.0
14-4 62.2% 4.6    2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 31.1% 3.6    1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.0% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 8.0 4.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 39.1% 39.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.4% 33.3% 33.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9
15-3 4.1% 30.6% 30.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.8
14-4 7.5% 25.0% 25.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.6
13-5 11.6% 22.5% 22.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.3 9.0
12-6 14.9% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 12.5
11-7 15.7% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9 13.8
10-8 14.5% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 1.4 13.1
9-9 11.8% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.9 10.9
8-10 8.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 8.1
7-11 5.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.2
6-12 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 11.5 86.7 0.0%