Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.6 65
Expected Predictive Rating +9.0 65
Pace 64.9 275
Improvement -3.9 323

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 67 B C+ B- A- B
Defense B- 87 C A- C- B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 70 C+ 60% 126 +3.1 78
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 292 D+ 35% 271 -2.7 304
Three Pointers 43% 144 B+ 38% 31 +3.5 70
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 50 B- +2.7 89
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 72
Second Chance B- 33.9% 81 C 1.01 193 C+ 0.34 102
Turnovers B- 15.5% 92
Freethrows B+ 0.36 28 B+ 78% 16 A- 0.28 11
Total Offense B +5.5 67

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 203 B 8.5% 56
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 315 D- 8.7% 340
Three Pointers C 83% 213 B- 0.6% 113
Total C 56% 166 C+ 5.2% 130

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 287 C+ 56% 121 -2.8 91
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 38 D+ 41% 292 +2.9 349
Three Pointers 39% 246 C- 34% 209 -0.8 143
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.0 40 C +0.4 195
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 153
Second Chance A+ 21.3% 3 C- 1.07 251 A- 0.23 20
Turnovers C- 15.9% 234
Freethrows B- 0.27 80 B+ 69% 37 B 0.19 53
Total Defense B- +3.1 87

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 34% 3 D+ 8.0% 303
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 34 D 2.4% 315
Three Pointers B- 81% 213 B- 1.4% 113
Total A- 44% 11 D 3.9% 310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 184 18.4 323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 228 0.16 123
Improvement +3.1 #50 -7.0 #364

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 16% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11% 12% 5%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 10.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 97%
.500 or above in Conference 78% 82% 42%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 9% 4%
First Round10% 11% 6%
Second Round3% 3% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 91.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 6
Quad 25 - 48 - 10
Quad 38 - 216 - 12
Quad 43 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 102 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 74% +12  97% 1 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +21 A+ A+ A+ B +4 B B- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 151 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 85% +9  84% 2 - 0 A- +17 C+ +3 B- A+ F A+ +13 C A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 147 Montana St. W 62 - 58 85% +2  68% 3 - 0 C +2 D- -8 F+ F+ B+ A +10 B- A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 98 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 73% +4  73% 4 - 0 B- +5 D -5 F+ B B- A +11 A B B
 Mon, Nov 24 53 USC L 67 - 70 43% -2  19% 4 - 1 B- +7 C- -2 C- B F+ A +9 C+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 24 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 24% -5  13% 4 - 2 B- +5 C +1 B D- C- B +4 D A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 76 @Butler W 77 - 68 42% +2  64% 5 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 D B- A+ A+ +12 A B- D
 Wed, Dec 10 110 Duquesne W 86 - 64 77% +12  98% 6 - 2 A +23 A- +11 B A- A+ A+ +12 A+ B D
 Sun, Dec 14 41 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 34% +6  94% 7 - 2 B+ +14 C +1 A C- F A+ +12 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 79 @Nevada L 66 - 81 44% -10  2% 7 - 3 0 - 1 D+ -5 C+ +3 A- D- F+ F+ -9 F A D
 Tue, Dec 30 47 New Mexico W 62 - 53 50% -0  42% 8 - 3 1 - 1 A- +17 F+ -9 D+ F A+ A+ +27 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 43 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 27% -6  20% 8 - 4 1 - 2 B+ +12 A +14 A- D+ A C -1 D+ C D
 Wed, Jan 7 58 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 59% -7  14% 8 - 5 1 - 3 D -11 F+ -9 D F D C- -2 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 28 Utah St. L 68 - 93 36% -19  0% 8 - 6 1 - 4 D- -13 C+ +2 D+ A B+ F -17 C- F D
 Tue, Jan 13 125 @UNLV L 85 - 89 OT 62% -0  39% 8 - 7 1 - 5 C +2 C- -1 B F C- B- +3 C C+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 97 Colorado St. W 79 - 73 72% +6  95% 9 - 7 2 - 5 B +8 A +11 B+ A+ D C- -2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 105 @Wyoming W 81 - 65 54% +10  72% 10 - 7 3 - 5 A+ +23 A +14 A+ D A A +11 B- A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 347 Air Force W 96 - 54 98% +19  93% 11 - 7 4 - 5 A+ +26 A+ +27 A A+ A+ B +4 C B+ D
 Tue, Jan 27 223 @San Jose St. W 89 - 58 80% +9  85% 12 - 7 5 - 5 A+ +31 A+ +16 A A+ B+ A+ +16 A B+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 58 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 86 36% -6  14% 12 - 8 5 - 6 C- -5 B +7 C B+ B- F -12 F A D-
 Tue, Feb 3 79 Nevada W 91 - 87 OT 67% +8  91% 13 - 8 6 - 6 B +8 A +11 A- A+ B D+ -3 D+ C- D
 Sat, Feb 7 47 @New Mexico W 91 - 90 28% +1  54% 14 - 8 7 - 6 A- +15 A+ +27 A+ B- B+ F -11 F A+ F
 Fri, Feb 13 125 UNLV L 83 - 86 OT 80% +9  90% 14 - 9 7 - 7 C- -3 B- +5 A D- C+ F+ -9 C F F
 Wed, Feb 18 28 @Utah St. L 56 - 75 18% -9  18% 14 - 10 7 - 8 C -1 D+ -3 C F C+ C -1 D+ B D-
 Sat, Feb 21 223 San Jose St. W 79 - 64 92%
 Tue, Feb 24 105 Wyoming W 77 - 70 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 136 @Fresno St. W 75 - 71 65%
 Tue, Mar 3 43 San Diego St. L 70 - 71 49%
 Sat, Mar 7 97 @Colorado St. W 71 - 70 51%
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 10 +9 B +5 D+ B- B B- +3 B+ B+ A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ D+ B+ B- 43% 28% 43% B B B- C C+ B- B+ B+ A- B- C+ D+ C- C 35% 26% 39% B+ C A+ C- A- C- B- B+ B
1.16 60% 35% 38% +3 +1 1.10 34% 1.0 .34 15% .36 78% .28 1.04 56% 41% 34% 0 -1 1.01 21% 1.1 .23 16% .27 69% .25
Nov
8		 Utah Valley A+ A+ F A- A+ 51% 14% 35% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ B F+ F+ A+ B 45% 22% 33% A- B A+ F B- C+ F F F
1.35 73% 29% 39% +9 +2 1.24 37% 1.4 .50 12% .52 79% .41 1.03 70% 45% 18% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.7 .37 21% .41 79% .32
Nov
11		 UT Rio Grande Valley C+ F+ F A+ C+ 42% 19% 40% B- B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+ A+ F C- C- D 33% 39% 29% A+ C A+ F A+ A- F A+ C
1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34 0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17
Nov
15		 Montana St. D- D F D+ F+ 27% 16% 58% D+ F+ F C- F+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A C+ B D C+ 25% 36% 40% A B- B A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A+
0.98 50% 14% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 1.0 .21 13% .40 91% .36 0.92 54% 37% 38% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.3 .08 14% .20 55% .11
Nov
18		 Wichita St. D F F A F 44% 22% 33% B+ F+ C+ A- B B- A+ D A+ A A+ F+ B+ A 40% 29% 31% B+ A B- B B B D C- D
0.97 40% 10% 40% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.1 .32 16% .43 65% .28 0.92 33% 46% 29% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.9 .33 17% .36 68% .25
Nov
24		 USC C- D+ A+ F D 50% 10% 40% A+ C- B C+ B F+ F A+ D A A+ D+ F C 30% 28% 42% A- C+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ A A+
0.96 50% 60% 24% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 22% .20 91% .18 1.01 40% 43% 48% +5 -2 1.08 23% 0.9 .19 19% .30 65% .19
Nov
25		 North Carolina St. C F+ A+ B B 24% 9% 67% C B B+ F D- C- A+ D+ A+ B C- F F F+ 39% 20% 41% B D A A+ A+ B- D- C- F+
1.00 45% 50% 37% +1 +1 1.04 33% 0.5 .16 21% .58 66% .38 1.16 63% 50% 45% +11 0 1.24 23% 0.6 .13 14% .38 78% .30
Dec
6		 Butler B+ C- F F D- 54% 23% 23% B D A+ F+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C A+ A+ 52% 19% 29% C A A+ F B- D A- A+ A+
1.15 57% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .32 12% .44 81% .35 1.01 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.6 .37 12% .29 59% .17
Dec
10		 Duquesne A- F F A+ A- 35% 31% 35% D B C- A+ A- A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 45% B+ A+ A+ F B D B+ A+ A
1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29 0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18
Dec
14		 St. Mary's C B- A+ C+ A 36% 26% 38% C- A D- A+ C- F C+ A+ B+ A+ A B- A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% B A+ A+ A A+ D+ F D+ F
0.99 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .22 0.98 47% 33% 25% -10 0 0.81 28% 0.9 .25 15% .41 83% .34
Dec
20		 Nevada C+ B+ C+ B- A- 45% 13% 43% B+ A- A F D- F+ A+ F A+ F+ D- F F F 40% 40% 20% A F A+ D- A D F D+ F
1.06 61% 40% 35% +2 +2 1.10 38% 0.6 .24 21% .63 61% .38 1.30 63% 50% 50% +11 -2 1.20 21% 1.2 .25 11% .61 79% .49
Dec
30		 New Mexico F+ B F F D 33% 15% 52% B+ D+ D F F A+ A+ F A- A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 26% 42% A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ D- B+ A+ A
0.88 63% 29% 24% -8 0 0.88 22% 0.6 .14 13% .41 64% .26 0.75 44% 40% 13% -17 -1 0.65 18% 0.9 .16 11% .26 63% .16
Jan
3		 San Diego St. A A B- C A 30% 15% 55% B- A- B- F D+ A A A+ A+ C B+ F F D+ 44% 24% 32% D- D+ A+ F C D F A+ D+
1.12 67% 36% 33% +2 0 1.06 30% 0.7 .21 18% .39 87% .34 1.15 55% 50% 43% +6 0 1.14 20% 1.8 .35 15% .39 66% .26
Jan
7		 Grand Canyon F+ C F+ F D 30% 30% 40% D+ D D- F F D A+ A A+ C- C- F C+ F+ 52% 13% 35% F F+ C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A+
0.86 54% 31% 24% -10 -2 0.79 20% 0.7 .14 21% .46 80% .37 1.11 61% 71% 32% +4 +2 1.15 32% 0.6 .19 18% .22 75% .16
Jan
10		 Utah St. C+ F A+ D- D- 37% 14% 49% B+ D+ A A- A B+ A+ B A+ F D+ C- D C- 43% 11% 46% C C- D- F F D D D D-
1.04 38% 50% 29% -10 +1 0.84 40% 1.1 .46 18% .47 76% .36 1.42 65% 40% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 2.2 .90 12% .37 76% .28
Jan
13		 UNLV C- B+ A+ F B 56% 22% 22% B B D- F F C- A- B A B- D D+ D+ D+ 31% 33% 35% A+ C D+ B C+ C D- C- D-
1.06 65% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.5 .12 19% .45 76% .34 1.11 65% 44% 37% +6 -2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 16% .42 71% .30
Jan
16		 Colorado St. A F+ A+ B B+ 27% 11% 61% B B+ A- A A+ D A+ A+ A+ C- D A+ F F 27% 20% 52% B+ F A- A+ A+ A+ B- F D+
1.27 50% 80% 37% +5 0 1.14 35% 1.4 .48 18% .53 78% .41 1.17 67% 0% 61% +16 -1 1.32 26% 0.3 .09 24% .30 93% .28
Jan
20		 Wyoming A B A+ A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% B+ A+ C- F D A F A+ D- A B+ F A C+ 41% 18% 41% B B- A+ F+ A- C+ C C- C-
1.25 64% 50% 41% +8 +2 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 12% .23 100% .23 1.00 50% 75% 28% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.1 .27 17% .33 78% .26
Jan
24		 Air Force A+ B- D- A+ A 43% 17% 40% B A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B A+ F D C- 34% 23% 43% A- C A+ F B+ D A A+ A
1.55 65% 33% 52% +13 +1 1.30 42% 1.5 .65 6% .43 72% .31 0.87 40% 50% 37% -2 -1 0.98 13% 1.3 .16 19% .22 55% .12
Jan
27		 San Jose St. A+ A- A+ F B+ 74% 2% 24% A+ A A A A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B A+ C+ A 24% 33% 43% B A A+ F B+ B D A+ B
1.33 71% 100% 27% +8 +5 1.28 45% 1.4 .64 15% .44 72% .32 0.87 50% 25% 33% -7 -3 0.84 22% 1.3 .27 18% .33 56% .18
Jan
30		 Grand Canyon B D+ F D+ D+ 49% 7% 44% A+ C B- A B+ B- A+ B- A+ F F+ B+ F F 48% 22% 30% C- F A+ F A D- F+ F+ F
1.04 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.89 29% 1.3 .38 17% .45 76% .34 1.30 68% 30% 64% +17 +1 1.37 10% 2.5 .25 14% .40 83% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Nevada A A+ C+ D A- 42% 10% 48% A- A- B- A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ D+ D- D C- D- 33% 33% 33% B+ D+ A+ F C- D A A A+
1.22 70% 40% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 1.8 .54 15% .55 77% .43 1.17 63% 42% 37% +5 -2 1.07 21% 1.9 .38 11% .29 68% .20
Feb
7		 New Mexico A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% B- A+ B C B- B+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 48% 10% 42% D F D+ A+ A+ F D+ B C-
1.35 56% 60% 44% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 16% .48 96% .46 1.34 60% 60% 50% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.5 .18 7% .34 71% .24
Feb
13		 UNLV B- B- F A+ A 44% 19% 38% B- A D+ F D- C+ C+ A+ A+ F+ A- D- F D 25% 34% 41% A+ C B- F F F A+ F+ A+
1.19 62% 22% 50% +8 +1 1.19 27% 0.9 .23 17% .40 91% .36 1.24 50% 47% 43% +7 -3 1.11 31% 1.5 .44 12% .21 77% .16
Feb
18		 Utah St. D+ F A- C C 39% 18% 43% B C A- F F C+ F B+ F C D- C F+ D 40% 17% 43% B+ D+ A+ F B D- A B- A
0.93 42% 44% 33% -5 0 0.92 38% 0.4 .15 20% .19 78% .15 1.25 68% 38% 40% +8 +1 1.19 24% 1.7 .40 12% .24 69% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 1.7 4th
5th 1.9 12.0 8.6 22.5 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 20.7 19.0 2.4 44.2 6th
7th 0.1 7.4 9.9 0.8 18.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 7.1 1.1 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 0.7 2.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 4.2 17.3 33.6 32.1 12.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 12.7% 38.0% 7.7% 30.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.9 0.0 7.9 32.9%
11-9 32.1% 20.6% 5.7% 14.9% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 0.1 25.4 15.8%
10-10 33.6% 10.3% 4.1% 6.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.8 0.2 30.1 6.4%
9-11 17.3% 2.9% 2.3% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 16.8 0.7%
8-12 4.2% 2.0% 2.0% 11.3 0.1 0.0 4.1
7-13 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.3
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.5% 4.7% 10.8% 10.7 84.5 11.3%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 9.2 1.5 3.1 18.6 33.0 34.5 9.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 53.0% 10.5 0.3 4.1 18.2 30.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5% 38.8% 10.7 1.1 11.0 26.4 0.3
Lose Out 0.2%