East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#159
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#152
Pace63.3#321
Improvement-0.9#236

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#192
First Shot-3.5#280
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#52
Layup/Dunks+0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#336
Freethrows+3.6#36
Improvement-2.0#318

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#145
First Shot+0.4#163
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#145
Layups/Dunks+1.0#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#296
Freethrows+0.6#150
Improvement+1.1#85
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.9% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 66.7% 85.4% 63.5%
.500 or above in Conference 48.7% 60.8% 46.6%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.2% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 3.6% 7.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.7% 2.9% 1.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 272   Coastal Carolina W 63-59 81%     1 - 0 -5.0 -0.7 -3.6
  Nov 16, 2024 82   George Mason W 78-77 2OT 37%     2 - 0 +4.5 +0.8 +3.6
  Nov 21, 2024 174   Jacksonville St. L 78-86 54%     2 - 1 -8.8 +5.0 -13.9
  Nov 22, 2024 329   Stetson W 71-64 82%     3 - 1 -2.6 -5.5 +3.1
  Nov 23, 2024 217   Illinois-Chicago W 72-55 63%     4 - 1 +13.9 +2.4 +13.0
  Nov 29, 2024 311   N.C. A&T W 93-69 85%     5 - 1 +12.9 +15.3 -2.0
  Dec 03, 2024 140   UNC Wilmington L 53-67 57%     5 - 2 -15.7 -19.4 +3.2
  Dec 07, 2024 69   @ South Carolina L 61-72 15%    
  Dec 11, 2024 214   North Alabama W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 17, 2024 253   Florida International W 73-65 78%    
  Dec 21, 2024 221   Gardner-Webb W 72-66 72%    
  Dec 31, 2024 148   @ South Florida L 67-70 37%    
  Jan 05, 2025 92   Florida Atlantic L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 08, 2025 118   Temple W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 32   @ Memphis L 65-81 7%    
  Jan 14, 2025 77   North Texas L 58-62 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 65-73 22%    
  Jan 21, 2025 225   @ Tulsa W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 148   South Florida W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 118   @ Temple L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 05, 2025 168   Rice W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 11, 2025 124   UAB W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 205   @ Charlotte L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 220   @ Tulane W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 249   Texas San Antonio W 77-69 75%    
  Mar 02, 2025 205   Charlotte W 67-62 67%    
  Mar 06, 2025 220   Tulane W 72-66 71%    
  Mar 09, 2025 92   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-79 22%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.0 4.1 0.6 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.0 1.0 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.2 1.7 0.1 9.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.3 2.4 0.2 8.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.4 6.8 10.0 12.8 13.9 13.4 12.1 9.7 6.4 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-2 79.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 50.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 23.1% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
13-5 9.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 10.4% 10.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 0.8% 13.2% 13.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.9% 8.8% 8.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8
13-5 4.0% 7.8% 7.8% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.7
12-6 6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.0
11-7 9.7% 2.8% 2.8% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.4
10-8 12.1% 1.5% 1.5% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.9
9-9 13.4% 0.7% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3
8-10 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8
7-11 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7
6-12 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 10.0
5-13 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.8
4-14 4.4% 4.4
3-15 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.3 0.0%