East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#282
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#304
Pace71.2#139
Improvement-0.1#194

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#312
First Shot-5.8#331
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#150
Layup/Dunks+0.7#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#358
Freethrows+1.4#99
Improvement-1.6#300

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#211
First Shot-1.6#229
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#158
Layups/Dunks-0.6#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#244
Freethrows+1.1#114
Improvement+1.5#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.1
.500 or above 0.9% 1.3% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 7.0% 8.4% 5.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.6% 33.0% 41.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Home) - 57.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 32 - 72 - 16
Quad 47 - 79 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 236 Georgia Southern W 92-89 52%     1 - 0 -4.1 +2.4 -6.9
  Sat, Nov 8 102 @Richmond L 72-87 10%     1 - 1 -7.4 -0.9 -5.7
  Tue, Nov 18 109 @UNC Wilmington L 60-85 11%     1 - 2 -18.3 -8.5 -10.9
  Fri, Nov 21 264 Charleston Southern L 65-77 58%     1 - 3 -20.5 -11.0 -9.4
  Tue, Nov 25 12 Michigan St. L 56-89 2%     1 - 4 -15.0 -7.3 -6.7
  Thu, Nov 27 111 St. Bonaventure L 58-67 17%     1 - 5 -5.6 -13.6 +8.2
  Tue, Dec 2 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-56 78%     2 - 5 -2.7 +2.0 -2.5
  Sat, Dec 6 284 UNC Greensboro L 78-82 62%     2 - 6 -13.5 -0.1 -13.5
  Thu, Dec 11 233 Appalachian St. L 54-67 52%     2 - 7 -20.0 -16.9 -4.1
  Sun, Dec 14 216 Buffalo W 73-70 49%     3 - 7 -3.4 -4.0 +0.7
  Wed, Dec 17 260 Presbyterian W 67-65 57%    
  Mon, Dec 22 23 @North Carolina L 61-86 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 205 Tulane L 73-74 48%    
  Wed, Jan 7 158 @Temple L 70-80 19%    
  Sun, Jan 11 119 UAB L 71-78 27%    
  Wed, Jan 14 86 @South Florida L 69-85 7%    
  Sun, Jan 18 194 Charlotte L 69-70 45%    
  Wed, Jan 21 100 @Wichita St. L 63-77 9%    
  Sat, Jan 24 146 @North Texas L 60-70 17%    
  Wed, Jan 28 207 Rice L 70-71 48%    
  Sun, Feb 1 117 @Florida Atlantic L 69-82 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 158 Temple L 73-77 37%    
  Wed, Feb 11 287 Texas San Antonio W 74-71 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 207 @Rice L 67-73 29%    
  Wed, Feb 18 100 Wichita St. L 66-74 22%    
  Sat, Feb 21 194 @Charlotte L 66-73 26%    
  Wed, Feb 25 287 @Texas San Antonio L 71-74 40%    
  Sun, Mar 1 75 Memphis L 68-79 16%    
  Thu, Mar 5 83 Tulsa L 69-80 17%    
  Sun, Mar 8 119 @UAB L 68-81 12%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.5 0.2 4.0 7th
8th 0.4 2.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.5 1.3 0.1 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.6 6.0 2.6 0.2 12.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.0 7.7 4.1 0.4 0.0 16.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 5.9 8.9 4.5 0.7 0.0 21.5 12th
13th 1.2 4.0 7.5 7.8 3.8 0.6 0.0 24.7 13th
Total 1.2 4.0 9.0 14.4 17.0 16.7 13.9 10.4 6.5 3.8 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 54.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 8.8% 0.0    0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 8.8% 8.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.7% 3.7% 3.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 2.0% 2.0
9-9 3.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.8
8-10 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.5
7-11 10.4% 10.4
6-12 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-13 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.7
4-14 17.0% 17.0
3-15 14.4% 14.4
2-16 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.0
1-17 4.0% 4.0
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%