Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#92
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#131
Pace76.1#36
Improvement-2.9#332

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#46
First Shot+7.8#22
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#292
Layup/Dunks+2.5#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#39
Freethrows+1.2#108
Improvement+0.2#164

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#168
First Shot+0.4#162
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#217
Layups/Dunks+4.3#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#301
Freethrows+0.2#185
Improvement-3.1#357
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 11.5% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 12.2
.500 or above 78.6% 81.7% 60.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 85.6% 77.5%
Conference Champion 10.6% 11.2% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.3%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round10.8% 11.3% 7.6%
Second Round2.8% 3.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 38 - 512 - 12
Quad 47 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 191   Indiana St. W 97-64 75%     1 - 0 +31.7 +5.9 +20.7
  Nov 12, 2024 83   @ Central Florida L 94-100 36%     1 - 1 +3.5 +15.3 -11.1
  Nov 15, 2024 127   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 54%     1 - 2 +1.7 +16.5 -14.0
  Nov 16, 2024 70   Liberty W 77-74 OT 42%     2 - 2 +11.0 +6.4 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2024 81   Oklahoma St. W 86-78 47%     3 - 2 +14.6 +2.5 +10.7
  Nov 22, 2024 73   Drake L 63-75 43%     3 - 3 -4.3 -0.7 -4.4
  Nov 24, 2024 116   Seton Hall L 61-63 61%     3 - 4 +1.0 -0.2 +1.1
  Nov 30, 2024 188   Florida Gulf Coast L 78-80 83%     3 - 5 -6.3 +10.1 -16.6
  Dec 04, 2024 253   @ Florida International W 88-77 77%     4 - 5 +9.0 +13.1 -4.5
  Dec 10, 2024 212   Jacksonville W 83-72 86%    
  Dec 14, 2024 138   Texas St. W 80-73 75%    
  Dec 21, 2024 27   @ Michigan St. L 73-83 16%    
  Jan 02, 2025 32   Memphis L 82-86 36%    
  Jan 05, 2025 159   @ East Carolina W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 08, 2025 205   @ Charlotte W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 12, 2025 124   UAB W 87-80 73%    
  Jan 15, 2025 220   @ Tulane W 82-76 71%    
  Jan 19, 2025 168   Rice W 79-70 81%    
  Jan 26, 2025 77   @ North Texas L 67-71 34%    
  Jan 29, 2025 249   Texas San Antonio W 91-77 89%    
  Feb 02, 2025 148   South Florida W 84-76 77%    
  Feb 08, 2025 225   @ Tulsa W 82-76 72%    
  Feb 10, 2025 205   Charlotte W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 16, 2025 118   @ Temple W 81-80 50%    
  Feb 20, 2025 94   Wichita St. W 81-78 62%    
  Feb 23, 2025 32   @ Memphis L 79-89 19%    
  Feb 27, 2025 77   North Texas W 70-68 55%    
  Mar 02, 2025 148   @ South Florida W 81-79 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 124   @ UAB W 84-83 52%    
  Mar 09, 2025 159   East Carolina W 79-70 78%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 3.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 10.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.4 5.6 2.2 0.3 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.5 4.7 1.1 0.1 18.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.4 6.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.7 3.0 0.6 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.4 2.5 2.9 0.5 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.4 6.9 10.4 13.1 14.8 14.9 12.7 9.4 5.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 89.6% 2.3    1.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 61.7% 3.6    2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 28.2% 2.6    0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 8.5% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.6% 10.6 5.8 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 86.8% 36.8% 50.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.1%
17-1 0.7% 51.8% 33.8% 18.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 27.2%
16-2 2.5% 34.1% 26.9% 7.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.7 9.9%
15-3 5.8% 25.8% 24.0% 1.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 4.3 2.3%
14-4 9.4% 20.5% 20.2% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.0 7.4 0.5%
13-5 12.7% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 10.8 0.0%
12-6 14.9% 11.4% 11.4% 11.9 0.3 1.2 0.2 13.2
11-7 14.8% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 12.0 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 13.6 0.0%
10-8 13.1% 5.4% 5.4% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 12.4
9-9 10.4% 3.1% 3.1% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
8-10 6.9% 3.3% 3.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.7
7-11 4.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.9% 10.4% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.5 5.4 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 89.1 0.6%