South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#148
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#159
Pace70.0#156
Improvement-0.8#231

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#164
First Shot+3.8#80
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#331
Layup/Dunks+1.5#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#175
Freethrows+3.8#23
Improvement+0.0#181

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#164
First Shot-0.5#187
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#136
Layups/Dunks-2.5#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#45
Freethrows-2.1#299
Improvement-0.8#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.2% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 48.5% 68.2% 43.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.1% 48.8% 36.6%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.1% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 6.0% 9.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.9% 3.2% 1.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 20.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 42 - 9
Quad 35 - 67 - 15
Quad 49 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 10   Florida L 83-98 7%     0 - 1 +2.5 +8.7 -4.9
  Nov 08, 2024 127   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 35%     0 - 2 -10.3 -9.6 +1.3
  Nov 12, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-69 96%     1 - 2 -4.4 -0.8 -3.6
  Nov 15, 2024 349   West Georgia W 74-55 93%     2 - 2 +3.4 -0.3 +5.0
  Nov 21, 2024 309   Portland W 74-68 78%     3 - 2 -1.6 -2.9 +1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 128   Middle Tennessee L 88-95 46%     3 - 3 -5.3 +15.6 -20.9
  Nov 24, 2024 136   Wright St. W 73-72 47%     4 - 3 +2.4 -0.5 +2.9
  Dec 03, 2024 329   Stetson W 74-72 89%     5 - 3 -10.6 -7.0 -3.6
  Dec 07, 2024 86   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-77 20%    
  Dec 14, 2024 52   @ Utah St. L 69-81 13%    
  Dec 18, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman W 77-67 83%    
  Dec 21, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-62 94%    
  Dec 31, 2024 159   East Carolina W 70-67 63%    
  Jan 06, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 11, 2025 220   @ Tulane W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 15, 2025 124   UAB W 78-77 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 225   Tulsa W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 22, 2025 205   @ Charlotte L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 159   @ East Carolina L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 28, 2025 168   Rice W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 02, 2025 92   @ Florida Atlantic L 76-84 23%    
  Feb 06, 2025 118   Temple W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 09, 2025 94   Wichita St. L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 32   Memphis L 73-82 21%    
  Feb 16, 2025 124   @ UAB L 75-80 34%    
  Feb 19, 2025 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 23, 2025 77   North Texas L 61-65 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 118   @ Temple L 72-77 32%    
  Mar 02, 2025 92   Florida Atlantic L 79-81 43%    
  Mar 07, 2025 32   @ Memphis L 70-85 9%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.4 1.1 0.1 7.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.2 1.7 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.0 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.2 5.1 0.9 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.6 1.8 0.1 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.2 2.5 0.2 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 2.6 0.3 9.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.7 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.4 6.3 9.7 11.9 13.8 13.9 12.5 10.2 7.5 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 98.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 70.1% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 29.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 16.9% 16.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 16.7% 16.3% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5%
14-4 1.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.5% 9.7% 9.7% 12.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3
12-6 4.6% 7.1% 7.1% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.3
11-7 7.5% 4.9% 4.9% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.1
10-8 10.2% 2.6% 2.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9
9-9 12.5% 1.5% 1.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.3
8-10 13.9% 1.0% 1.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.7
7-11 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8
6-12 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8
5-13 9.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.7
4-14 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.1 0.0%