Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#51
Expected Predictive Rating+20.9#7
Pace71.5#112
Improvement+1.9#62

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#61
First Shot+4.5#63
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#156
Layup/Dunks-3.2#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#75
Freethrows+1.8#80
Improvement+2.2#34

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#56
First Shot+2.3#111
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#34
Layups/Dunks+4.6#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#240
Freethrows+2.3#58
Improvement-0.3#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 2.6% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 6.3% 12.4% 4.5%
Top 6 Seed 18.4% 30.3% 14.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.1% 71.5% 50.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.6% 71.1% 49.5%
Average Seed 7.7 7.1 8.0
.500 or above 78.2% 90.3% 74.5%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 48.9% 38.1%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 4.4% 7.8%
First Four8.9% 8.7% 9.0%
First Round50.4% 66.7% 45.3%
Second Round26.4% 37.0% 23.2%
Sweet Sixteen9.0% 14.1% 7.4%
Elite Eight2.9% 4.4% 2.4%
Final Four0.9% 1.4% 0.8%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Florida (Neutral) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 11
Quad 26 - 311 - 13
Quad 34 - 115 - 14
Quad 44 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 252   Idaho St. W 55-48 94%     1 - 0 -0.9 -18.2 +17.6
  Nov 08, 2024 84   Santa Clara W 81-74 63%     2 - 0 +13.4 +10.7 +2.6
  Nov 10, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 80-88 10%     2 - 1 +16.2 +14.6 +1.7
  Nov 14, 2024 100   Grand Canyon W 87-76 67%     3 - 1 +16.2 +11.6 +4.0
  Nov 17, 2024 133   St. Thomas W 81-66 85%     4 - 1 +13.5 +7.5 +6.2
  Nov 20, 2024 228   Cal Poly W 93-89 93%     5 - 1 -2.7 +6.7 -9.8
  Nov 28, 2024 65   New Mexico W 85-82 53%     6 - 1 +12.1 +12.4 -0.5
  Nov 29, 2024 42   St. Mary's W 68-64 44%     7 - 1 +15.3 +4.0 +11.4
  Dec 03, 2024 312   San Diego W 90-53 96%     8 - 1 +25.9 +9.8 +13.7
  Dec 14, 2024 10   Florida L 75-83 24%    
  Dec 21, 2024 171   Massachusetts W 80-69 84%    
  Dec 31, 2024 49   @ BYU L 76-79 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 85   Colorado W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 08, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 69-81 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 13   Baylor L 73-76 41%    
  Jan 14, 2025 83   Central Florida W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 25   @ Cincinnati L 68-75 26%    
  Jan 21, 2025 45   @ West Virginia L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 73-78 31%    
  Jan 28, 2025 85   @ Colorado W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 23   Arizona L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 04, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 09, 2025 81   @ Oklahoma St. W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 12, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 15, 2025 78   TCU W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 6   Houston L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 23, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 49   BYU W 79-76 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 60   @ Utah L 75-77 41%    
  Mar 04, 2025 23   @ Arizona L 76-83 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 24   Texas Tech L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 3.6 3rd
4th 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 3.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.7 1.2 0.1 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.7 2.3 0.2 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.4 1.1 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 1.9 0.1 8.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.4 0.4 7.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 5.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 3.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.1 9.3 11.5 12.7 12.9 12.4 9.8 7.5 5.2 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 97.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 77.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 42.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 1.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.8% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 2.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-5 1.6% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 3.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.1% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 5.2% 99.9% 4.0% 95.9% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 7.5% 99.7% 2.1% 97.6% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-9 9.8% 97.5% 1.4% 96.0% 7.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 97.4%
10-10 12.4% 92.8% 0.8% 92.0% 8.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.4 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.0 0.9 92.7%
9-11 12.9% 72.4% 0.5% 72.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.7 3.3 0.3 3.6 72.3%
8-12 12.7% 39.8% 0.3% 39.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 7.7 39.6%
7-13 11.5% 10.0% 0.2% 9.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.3 9.9%
6-14 9.3% 1.0% 1.0% 11.4 0.1 0.0 9.2 1.0%
5-15 6.1% 6.1
4-16 3.9% 3.9
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 55.1% 1.2% 53.9% 7.7 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.2 5.2 6.9 7.1 6.6 7.0 6.5 8.3 1.2 0.0 44.9 54.6%