Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.8 #7
Expected Predictive Rating +17.4 #25
Pace 73.2 #71
Improvement +5.6 #15

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #12 B A B- B A-
Defense #7 A- A+ C B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #16 1.35 #19 +9.1 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #345 0.89 #38 -3.1 #323
Three Pointers 43% #141 0.88 #332 -1.9 #251
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #64 +4.1 #63
Freethrows 0.36 #32 72% #211 0.26 #51
Second Chance 44.0% #2 1.06 #134 0.47 #8
Turnovers 15.5% #90
Total Offense +10.8 #12

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 0.91 #5 +5.9 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #3 0.68 #48 -3.2 #353
Three Pointers 31% #360 1.00 #155 +5.1 #13
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #8 +7.8 #8
Freethrows 0.28 #94 70% #53 0.19 #73
Second Chance 19.6% #2 0.71 #1 0.14 #2
Turnovers 16.7% #193
Total Defense +11.0 #7

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.7% #11 -3.4% #10
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.3% #105 -12.3% #15
Possession Length 15.3 #27 18.1 #309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #6 0.10 #19
Improvement +4.3 #20 +1.3 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 2.2% 0.3%
#1 Seed 12.3% 16.8% 5.3%
Top 2 Seed 38.8% 48.0% 24.4%
Top 4 Seed 88.6% 93.6% 80.6%
Top 6 Seed 98.7% 99.6% 97.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 3.0 2.6 3.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 66.4% 79.5% 45.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round96.7% 97.7% 95.1%
Sweet Sixteen70.1% 72.4% 66.6%
Elite Eight41.3% 43.6% 37.7%
Final Four22.9% 24.6% 20.3%
Championship Game11.9% 13.7% 9.0%
National Champion5.8% 6.7% 4.2%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Away) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 210 - 7
Quad 26 - 216 - 9
Quad 33 - 020 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 2 Arizona L 87 - 93 40% -1  0 - 1 +18 +14 B+ A- C+ +5 B+ A+ B-
 Thu, Nov 6 348 North Florida W 104 - 64 100% +21  1 - 1 +25 +5 F A+ F +15 A+ C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 100 Florida St. W 78 - 76 96% +1  2 - 1 +4 -5 D+ F+ C- +8 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 40 Miami (FL) W 82 - 68 81% +7  3 - 1 +27 +7 B C+ B- +18 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 194 Merrimack W 80 - 45 99% +24  4 - 1 +30 +12 D+ A+ C+ +21 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 50 TCU L 80 - 84 86% +2  4 - 2 +6 +8 C- A+ F+ -1 B C+ D-
 Fri, Nov 28 64 Providence W 90 - 78 89% +9  5 - 2 +21 +13 D+ A+ A- +7 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 3 @Duke L 66 - 67 32% -5  5 - 3 +26 +11 C A+ C+ +14 A- A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 8 Connecticut L 73 - 77 51% -2  5 - 4 +17 +14 A+ D B +3 C+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 80 George Washington W 80 - 70 91% +8  6 - 4 +17 +6 A- D+ C+ +10 A- A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 358 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 61 100% +25  7 - 4 +23 +17 A A+ D +5 B A D+
 Sun, Dec 21 219 Colgate W 90 - 60 99% +17  8 - 4 +24 +20 B+ A+ B- +6 C A+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 229 Dartmouth W 94 - 72 99% +21  9 - 4 +15 +12 B- A+ D- +1 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 53 @Missouri L 74 - 76 79% -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +11 +8 C C A+ +3 C+ A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 6 35 Georgia W 92 - 77 84% +6  10 - 5 1 - 1 +26 +14 B+ A- B+ +11 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 15 Tennessee W 91 - 67 74% +10  11 - 5 2 - 1 +39 +21 A+ A+ A +17 A A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 57 @Oklahoma W 96 - 79 81% +16  12 - 5 3 - 1 +29 +26 B+ A+ A+ +4 C+ A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 12 @Vanderbilt W 98 - 94 51% +2  13 - 5 4 - 1 +26 +31 A+ A+ A+ -6 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 48 LSU W 79 - 61 89% +10  14 - 5 5 - 1 +26 +12 C A+ C+ +15 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 28 Auburn L 67 - 76 81% -8  14 - 6 5 - 2 +4 +2 C- C B +1 B- A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 87 @South Carolina W 95 - 48 88% +24  15 - 6 6 - 2 +56 +27 A+ A+ C- +30 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Feb 1 20 Alabama W 100 - 77 76% +11  16 - 6 7 - 2 +37 +21 A+ A A+ +14 B A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 27 @Texas A&M W 83 - 80 61%
 Wed, Feb 11 35 @Georgia W 87 - 82 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 26 Kentucky W 82 - 73 80%
 Tue, Feb 17 87 South Carolina W 84 - 65 96%
 Sat, Feb 21 60 @Mississippi W 79 - 69 82%
 Wed, Feb 25 30 @Texas W 82 - 78 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 24 Arkansas W 88 - 80 78%
 Tue, Mar 3 76 Mississippi St. W 85 - 68 94%
 Sat, Mar 7 26 @Kentucky W 79 - 76 62%
Totals 23 - 8 14 - 4 +22 +11 B A B- +11 A- A+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 7.9 24.1 24.4 9.7 66.4 1st
2nd 2.7 9.8 4.3 0.1 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.3 3.3 0.2 7.9 3rd
4th 0.8 3.2 0.3 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 0.8 2.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 11.4 21.2 28.5 24.5 9.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 9.7    9.7
15-3 99.4% 24.4    21.3 3.1 0.0
14-4 84.4% 24.1    12.4 9.5 2.0 0.2
13-5 37.1% 7.9    1.0 2.6 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 66.4% 66.4 44.2 15.2 5.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 9.7% 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 1.6 4.9 3.7 1.0 0.1 100.0%
15-3 24.5% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 2.2 5.0 11.0 7.0 1.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 28.5% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 2.8 2.0 8.6 12.0 5.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 21.2% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 3.4 0.4 2.8 8.2 7.1 2.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
12-6 11.4% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 4.2 0.1 0.4 2.5 3.9 3.1 1.3 0.2 100.0%
11-7 3.6% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 5.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.0% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 6.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 3.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.3% 100.0% 1.3 71.7 27.6 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 100.0% 1.7 42.3 45.1 11.3 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 100.0% 1.9 31.5 51.8 15.7 1.0