Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#83
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#61
Pace73.0#77
Improvement-1.6#284

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#113
First Shot-2.2#238
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#13
Layup/Dunks-0.9#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#237
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#261
Freethrows+2.4#64
Improvement-0.1#199

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#71
First Shot+2.6#101
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#70
Layups/Dunks+1.5#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#258
Freethrows+3.0#29
Improvement-1.5#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 12.3% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.8% 12.1% 3.2%
Average Seed 9.2 9.2 9.7
.500 or above 47.2% 48.4% 17.5%
.500 or above in Conference 15.1% 15.5% 6.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.1% 21.5% 34.9%
First Four3.3% 3.4% 1.0%
First Round10.0% 10.3% 2.6%
Second Round4.3% 4.4% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 24 - 46 - 15
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 30   Texas A&M W 64-61 37%     1 - 0 +13.0 +0.0 +13.2
  Nov 08, 2024 150   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 80%     2 - 0 +4.6 -3.7 +8.1
  Nov 12, 2024 92   Florida Atlantic W 100-94 64%     3 - 0 +8.8 +13.4 -5.3
  Nov 19, 2024 330   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 95%     4 - 0 -1.8 +3.0 -4.4
  Nov 22, 2024 35   Wisconsin L 70-86 28%     4 - 1 -3.5 -4.9 +3.0
  Nov 24, 2024 47   LSU L 102-109 3OT 35%     4 - 2 +3.3 +5.6 -0.3
  Nov 27, 2024 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-76 83%     5 - 2 +4.2 +4.6 -0.6
  Dec 01, 2024 185   California Baptist W 74-59 84%     6 - 2 +10.8 -1.7 +12.6
  Dec 08, 2024 323   Tarleton St. W 79-60 96%    
  Dec 14, 2024 225   Tulsa W 79-69 83%    
  Dec 21, 2024 212   Jacksonville W 78-66 87%    
  Dec 31, 2024 24   @ Texas Tech L 68-78 17%    
  Jan 05, 2025 7   Kansas L 70-79 21%    
  Jan 08, 2025 85   Colorado W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 23   @ Arizona L 74-85 17%    
  Jan 14, 2025 51   @ Arizona St. L 72-78 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 6   Houston L 63-72 21%    
  Jan 21, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 68-83 9%    
  Jan 25, 2025 78   TCU W 74-72 59%    
  Jan 28, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 67-82 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 49   BYU L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 05, 2025 25   Cincinnati L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 68-80 15%    
  Feb 11, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 85   @ Colorado L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 81   @ Oklahoma St. L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 23, 2025 60   Utah W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 26, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 73-72 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 78   @ TCU L 71-75 38%    
  Mar 05, 2025 81   Oklahoma St. W 77-74 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 45   @ West Virginia L 68-75 26%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.3 0.2 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.4 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.7 0.3 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.1 0.8 0.0 8.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.3 1.9 0.1 10.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 11.5 13th
14th 0.3 1.7 5.0 4.3 0.7 0.0 12.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.0 4.3 1.3 0.0 13.3 15th
16th 0.3 1.3 3.2 4.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 13.6 16th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.6 7.0 10.1 12.7 14.5 14.0 12.0 9.2 6.7 4.0 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 65.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 23.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.3% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.6% 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.2% 97.7% 2.4% 95.3% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7%
12-8 2.2% 86.3% 1.5% 84.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 86.1%
11-9 4.0% 67.1% 1.2% 66.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 66.7%
10-10 6.7% 46.6% 0.3% 46.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.1 3.6 46.5%
9-11 9.2% 17.0% 0.3% 16.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.2 7.7 16.7%
8-12 12.0% 3.7% 0.1% 3.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 11.6 3.6%
7-13 14.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 0.3%
6-14 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 14.5 0.0%
5-15 12.7% 12.7
4-16 10.1% 10.1
3-17 7.0% 7.0
2-18 3.6% 3.6
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 12.0% 0.2% 11.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.5 3.2 0.4 88.0 11.8%